The Race for Iran

Jay Solomon has an informative report in this morning’s Wall Street Journal that highlights the Obama administration’s difficulties generating support for further sanctions against Iran.

Specifically, the administration is concerned that China, Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon – all Security Council members – may either oppose or insist on watering down any sanctions that the United States proposes.

From Solomon’s piece:

Officials involved in the diplomacy fear that China’s stated opposition to tough new sanctions, if reinforced by other players, could weaken any U.N. penalties against Tehran. Though Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon hold temporary seats and can’t veto sanctions—unlike permanent council members including China—they could make it harder for the U.S. to get agreement by sustaining the opposition campaign.

Senior U.S. diplomats have intensified discussions in recent weeks with leaders in China, Turkey, Brazil and Lebanon in a bid to push a sanctions vote at the U.N. on Iran by next month. But on Wednesday, Brazilian officials publicly rebuffed the U.S. during Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to the capital, Brasilia. “It is not prudent to push Iran against a wall,” President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told reporters ahead of their meeting. Afterward, foreign minister Celso Amorim said sanctions “could be counterproductive.” Turkish and Lebanese officials have made similar comments in recent weeks.

Solomon’s report appears to support Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett’s analysis that “there is no way that the United Nations Security Council will approve anything approaching ‘very tough’ or ‘crippling’ sanctions on Iran.”

Solomon’s article can be read here.

– Ben Katcher