Photo from Reuters
2011 has not gotten off to a good start for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Tunisia may be on the Arab world’s periphery, but Egypt has been at the Middle East’s center of gravity for decades.
It is clear that Saudi leaders were deeply disturbed by what they interpret as the Obama Administration’s abandonment of Hosni Mubarak, a long-time U.S. ally. And now, the Arab “wave” is breaking much closer to home.
It looks increasingly like Bahrain will be the next arena for significant political contestation and change in an Arab state. How long the status quo could hold in Bahrain—with a Shi’a-majority population but a Sunni ruling family and political establishment—has always been a salient question, but now it is really coming to a head.
We thought that Graham Fuller’s Op Ed in the International Herald Tribune today provided a wealth of important insights about what is going on in Bahrain, what it means for Saudi Arabia, and what it means for the shifting balance of power in the Persian Gulf. Below are excerpts and it can be read in its entirety, here.
“Where’s the next place to blow in the Arab revolution? Candidates are many, but there’s one whose geopolitical impact vastly exceeds its diminutive size — the island of Bahrain.
This is a place run by an oppressive and corrupt little regime, long coddled by Washington because the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet is headquartered there. The future of the base is far from secure if the regime falls.
A few hard facts about the island that should give pause for thought:
First, Bahrain is a Shiite island. You won’t see it described that way, but it is — 70 percent of the population, more than the percentage of Shiites in Iraq. And like Iraq under Saddam Hussein, these Arab Shiites have been systematically discriminated against, repressed, and denied meaningful roles by a Sunni tribal government determined to maintain its solid grip on the country. The emergence of real democracy, as in Iraq, will push the country over into the Shiite column — sending shivers down the spines of other Gulf rulers, and especially in Riyadh…
If you look behind the Western and elite-populated high-rises you’ll encounter the Shiite ghettoes — poor and neglected, with high unemployment, walls smeared with anti-regime graffiti.
Free market? Sure, except the regime imports politically neutered laborers from passive, apolitical states that need the money: Filipinos, Bangladeshis, Sri Lankans and other South Asians who won’t make waves or they’re on the next plane out.
The regime also imports its thugs. The ranks of the police are heavily staffed with expat police who often speak no Arabic, have no attachments to the country and who will beat, jail, torture and shoot Bahraini protestors with impunity.
Like other Shiite populations, clerics figure heavily among the leaders.
But many are liberal and open, reflecting the culturally open character of the island. Most Bahraini Shiites would look to Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq rather than to Iran for religious guidance.
Typically, however, just like most other tyrants across the region, the al-Khalifa regime in Bahrain will whip up anti-Shiite, anti-Iranian fears to gain Western backing — and they usually get it.
It’s not just that the majority is Shiite. From a Saudi perspective, the Bahraini Shiites maintain close family and cultural ties with Shiite families across the water in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Shiite minority, probably even more oppressed, is already restive and would be responsive to Shiite political unrest nearby. This is Riyadh’s ultimate nightmare — a further strengthening of Shiite political power in this oil-rich region.
The Sunni minority of Bahrain is in a difficult position. The Sunnis worry about the rise of the Shiite majority that makes up the oppressed class.
But liberal Sunnis are also highly discontent with the al-Khalifa regime and seek political reform. Many work with the Shiite leadership to attain secular reforms, but the regime has repressed them as well and fans fear of Shiites to help keep them in line…
Washington is now faced again with another hard choice — the legacy of shortsighted decisions made over decades: Continue to go with local repressive regimes out of a misguided sense of “American interests”? Hold on to unpopular military bases at all costs — thereby deepening local anger and perhaps giving Iran ultimately a greater voice in events?
Or should it quietly drop support for this repressive regime, allow events to take their course and accept that long-overdue change is coming? How long can we hold on to another ugly status quo? It’s really about how bad the change will get the longer we wait.”
–Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett
test
fyi,
Iran almost certainly is safe and secure provided it does not develop nukes. You seem to encourage the Iranian government to do the single thing that will bring catastrophe.
Is there an element of Shia fanaticism here?
Remember how Philip II brought disaster to Spain due to his delusions about being the protector of Roman Catholicism.
As one American tax payer, I am not too worried at all, since I know we have Professor Scott Lucas and his scholarship pupil Pakman. Our own Scott, in his good offices (shop) that is founded by our good philanthropist the honorable king of color revolutions none other than the legendary George Soros, I am very sure will utilizing our very capable Department of Damage Control and will overcome and will push back the Iranians against gaining any traction for these so called democracy uprising in the Middle East (greater Israel)
Soon I can see our current president Barak Hussein Obama telling our first president George Washington “Assodeh Bekhab Ma Bydarem”
Scott, have Pakman, to translate that one to find out what I mean you may not want to agree.
Richard Steven Hack says:
February 19, 2011 at 6:55 pm
Unknown Unknowns: NICE recap of the Zionist attitudes! Well done!
I was just the channel. Just cutting and pasting that venom turned my delicate stomach.
*
kooshy says:
February 19, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Thanks for “Department of Damage Control” and “just a little inside information for this tax payer will be much appreciated.” They gave me a couple of good chuckles :)
Fiorangela says: February 19, 2011 at 10:46 pm
I think Dr. Milani and his Euro-American secularistic model does not provide a complete model.
To the extent that Iran is the Shia Fortress, just like Israel is the Jewish one, confrontation with Iran is confrontation with Shia Islam.
Furthermore, Dr. Milani is oblivious to the anti-religious sentiment of the Europeans. They are, by and large, specially in Northern Europe, are carrying out the anti-clerical program of the Enlightenment Tradition.
So yes, they are against and Irano-Islamic bomb.
Many commentators have stated a nuclear armed Iran will cause other Middle Eastern states will become nuclearized. I just do not see that. Turkey won’t as she is protected by NATO nor she has, at the moment, the technology.
Saudi Arabia, Southern Persian Gulf states do not have the technical depth. Iraq is finished. Jordan has neither the money nor the know-how. There are only 2 distant candidates: Egypt and Algeria. Neither is a threat to Iran even if they nuclearize.
congratulations Iran filmmakers.
_____
Abbas Milani spoke at the Commonwealth Club of California. http://commonwealthclub.blogspot.com/2011/02/abbas-milani-shah-ayatollah-and-irans.html
In addition to some curious leaps of logic and downright dumb interpretations of Iranian behavior (for example, quoth Milani, Iran resists ALL aspects of “modernity” which is the form of rational behavior that the rest of the world has been pursuing since the Renaissance) –[aye, and look where it's gotten them -- at least 6 major wars, perhaps 100 million people killed, several countries economically destroyed, famine on a nationwide scale in at least five countries, and Abe Foxman. Iran is REALLY stupid to resist "modernism."] Milani says this: “Evidence I have uncovered proves conclusively that the US did NOT want the Pahlavi regime to have nuclear technology or to develop the bomb.” The documentary evidence is conclusive, repeats Milani.
Fascinating.
That means that the West’s brief with Iran and its orgasmic compulsion to block Iran’s nuclear development has nothing to do with Islam. If Milani is correct, and he is most definite that he is, then the West has no problem with Islam in Iran. kewl.
On the other hand, Milani says that Iran was among the first to join NPT, and that the problem is with the way NPT is constructed: a nation in NPT MAY enrich. Iran is entitled to enrich.
BUT, the problem is that Iran lied. shame shame shame. ( In a conference in Oregon in Dec 2009, Mohammed Sahimi explained that Iran did NOT lie when it restarted up its nuclear project after Khomeini had shut it down. According to Sahimi, Iran had sought the proper permissions, to which it was entitled under NPT, but US refused to perform as it was obligated to do. Therefore, said Sahimi, Iran proceeded, abiding by the letter of the law under the circumstances. :http://www.edmaysproductions.net/webvideo/irannuke.wmv Curiously, Abbas Milani did not explain this conflict between US and Iran.)
Milani offered one howler that can’t be resisted: he said that a nuclear armed Iran would set off an arms race in the region. The US has sold close to $100 billion in high-tech weaponry to the Gulf states, and Bahrain is killing its own citizens with tanks while Egypt lobs American-made tear gas canisters at its own citizens, and Milani is worried about Iran setting off a nuclear arms race?
Congratulations
Iranian film wins Berlinale Golden Bear
Iranian director Asghar Farhadi’s family drama Nader and Simin: A Separation has won the Berlinale’s Golden Bear, making history as the first Iranian movie to win the top prize at the German film festival.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/166078.html
Farhadi’s movie won the prestigious award for best motion picture on Saturday in Berlin, and the entire female cast and the entire male cast were awarded Silver Bears in the best actress and best actor categories.
A subtle and gripping examination of Iran’s social divide, the movie is a portrayal of a marriage in crisis. It focuses on the life of a middle class couple, Nader and Simin.
When Nader refuses to leave Iran because of the illness of his father, who suffers from Alzheimer’s disease, Simin files for divorce, but their lives spin out of control when the court rejects her divorce petition. They also have to consider the future of their only child.
The film premiered in Tehran on February 9, 2011 at the 29th Fajr International Film Festival.
Leila Hatami, Shahab Hosseini, Peyman Mo’adi, Sareh Bayat, Sarina Farhadi, and Babak Karimi star in the critically acclaimed work.
Farhadi received international acclaim for his 2009 film About Elly, which won numerous awards, including the Silver Bear at the 59th Berlin International Film Festival and the Founders Award for Best Narrative Feature at the 8th Tribeca Film Festival in New York.
Hungarian director Bela Tarr won the 2011 Berlinale’s Jury Grand Prix for his black-and-white movie The Turin Horse. Tarr’s two-and-a-half-hour film relates the story of an aging farmer and his daughter, who live in a small derelict house in the countryside.
The Jury Grand Prix is considered the festival’s second most prestigious award after the coveted Golden Bear.
“the school’s teacher, the mullah, who was thrown out of school, is implying that he is leaving on his own.”
BTW- That also can be used to justify Scott’s various reasons why he feels he needs to visit this site.
Irshad:
Dr. Todd’s expectations regarding an EU-Russia Entente have not been realized.
EU has chosen to be America-Lite.
Persian Gulf says: February 19, 2011 at 7:19 pm
I agree with Richard Steven Hack’s comments in this regard.
Persian Gulf: You have to remember that the US public isn’t like you or me. They don’t follow this stuff closely enough to know what is going. For them, the tactic works fine.
Arnold thinks the tactic is supposed to cover the fact that Iran has deterred the US from attacking. I think he’s mostly wrong about that. Naturally, the US doesn’t want anyone, especially Israel, to think they’ve been deterred from attacking Iran. But that doesn’t mean it is Iran doing the deterring. As I’ve indicated in the past, there are a lot of factors that go into starting a major war and the US just can’t decide to do it at any given moment even if the elites fully intend a war.
But because there’s been a lot of talk threatening Iran, the US has to explain why it hasn’t attacked yet. So saying that sanctions are working, etc. serves that purpose. But it also serves to keep the narrative alive that Iran is working on nukes.
The US can’t afford to let the crisis die done if it wants to have a credible reason for eventually attacking Iran. But it can’t ratchet up the crisis to its final level before it’s ready to attack Iran credibly. So there will be ebbs and crests in the propaganda.
It may even relate more to domestic political considerations than any real issues. Obama has such a crappy foreign policy reputation that he may think he needs to establish that he’s actually doing something about Iran without actually bombing them now. He may be getting advice from his advisers to do this sort of propaganda for any number of reasons. Who knows? Who cares?
It’s really not a significant indicator one way or the other as to when anything will happen.
Arnold/PG
“The US really does not like admitting that its military can be deterred.”
That was done before, going public with NIE 2007, I guess we will see something of same sort when they have to withdraw.
Three is a Persian saying for that “mara az in madaresseh byroon meraviem” Empty help pleasse
I don’t even know how to translate this one, but in all it means that the school’s teacher, the mullah, who was thrown out of school, is implying that he is leaving on his own.
Taliban: ‘Hillary, mind your own business’
http://rehmat2.wordpress.com/2011/02/20/taliban-hillary-mind-your-own-business/
PG:
My understanding of the Stuxnet stuff is that the United States was very proud of it. It makes the US and Israel feel potent to say they have hurt Iran’s nuclear program, especially given years of “options on the table” where bluffs have been called repeatedly embarrassing those who believe or pretend there is a military option or a threat of a military option that can harm Iran’s nuclear program.
Second, the US is prepared, I’m pretty sure, now to accept a small amount of Iranian enrichment, provided Iran agree to keep its stock beneath one ton forever. This concession is, of course, much to little now for Iran, but US policymakers are terrible at predicting what is acceptable to Iran and at understanding Iran generally (thank you Gary Sick, Fareed Zakaria, and especially Obama administration foreign policy staff), so they really thought there was a chance Iran would take this deal.
If Iran had taken the deal, the US would have wanted to present it as a victory and claiming to have had a major success at slowing Iran’s nuclear program would have been useful in that.
It was true that there was a virus called Stuxnet that did some damage to Iran’s nuclear program. The idea that the virus slowed the program so that bombing is no longer necessary served the purpose of explaining the US failure to attack and refusal to do so in the foreseeable future without referencing possible Iranian retaliation.
The US really does not like admitting that its military can be deterred.
James:
Nasser didn’t consider Farouk independent. Nasser was far more independent than Farouk. Mubarak was no more independent of the US than Farouk was of the UK.
I consider Farouk’s Egypt effectively a colony. As are today’s Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Kuwait and others. Hopefully Egypt will emerge from this relationship in the short term, as of yet it has not.
Farouk’s Egypt, like Mubarak’s Egypt, the other countries I listed above and like the princely states of the British Raj in pre-independence India were or are nominally independent and are, on matters of relatively little importance to their sponsors able to exercise some discretion in policy.
If by your definitions, Farouk’s Egypt and Nasser’s Egypt were both independent then by your definitions there are no colonies in the Middle East. By US colony or member of the US colonial structure in the Middle East that is maintained ultimately on Israel’s behalf I mean country with a relationship with the United States that is effectively similar to the relationship between Farouk’s Egypt and the UK.
Persian Gulf,
You put your finger on an internal contradiction in the false logic used to attempt to deceive the American people into thinking Iran is a “threat”.
In fact, it seems to be a giant scam intended to deflect attention from the damage Israel does to the national security interests of the American people. To protect the numerous stooges of the Israel lobby in the US Congress.
Richard:
I wish you could read Farsi. In fact, Rafsanjani is admitting the defeat openly. probably he sensed that his days are gone. I am so lazy to translate this! perhaps Empty can do a better job.
http://www.aftab.ir/news/view/2011/feb/19/c1_1298099928.php/%DA%86%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D9%86%DA%98%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%B9%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%87-%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%87-%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%81-%D9%86%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%AF
Rehmat,
Oliver Stone is quite right that the Israel lobby has made a mess of US foreign policy in the Middle East. But didn’t Hitler declare war on the US, after the US declared war on Japan (in wake of attack on Pearl Harbor)?
Richard:
“First, they intend to deceive the US public into thinking that 1) Iran is continuing to pursue nuclear weapons, and 2) the US is making headway in preventing Iran from doing so. By emphasizing how the US is inhibiting Iran from making nukes, it reinforces the propaganda that Iran IS making nukes.”
You think so? but gives the opposite impression as I said. I mean, the tactic is so cheap. the emphasis on 1000 centrifuges is meaningless.
As for Israel, in fact Israel herself emphasis on this aspect of the propaganda war even more than the U.S whereas if it was for the reason you have explained we would have seen a different pattern.
Washington cannot say ‘NO’ to Jewish Lobby
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2011/02/20/washington-cannot-say-no-to-jewish-lobby/
Persian Gulf: “who are they trying to deceive?”
I’d say that’s easy to determine.
First, they intend to deceive the US public into thinking that 1) Iran is continuing to pursue nuclear weapons, and 2) the US is making headway in preventing Iran from doing so. By emphasizing how the US is inhibiting Iran from making nukes, it reinforces the propaganda that Iran IS making nukes.
Neither is true of course, but that’s what propaganda is for.
Second, the US is trying to allay Israel’s more urgent desire for a military attack. The US fully intends to attack Iran but on its time table, not Israel’s. So by saying that Iran’s program is slowing, the US is trying to convince Israel not to attack Iran unilaterally but in conjunction with the US timetable.
Israel is primarily concerned with Iran. The US has other issues to contend with, such as Afghanistan. So the US elites want to be in control of events, while Israel wants to be in control of events. So the US has to “manage” Israel.
Apparently no one is getting straight information on this situation.
Iran Ships Not Yet Allowed to Pass Suez
:http://uskowioniran.blogspot.com/2011/02/iran-ships-not-yet-allowed-to-pass-suez.html
Iran: 1 Obama: 0
Iran, Syria and Iraq build pipeline to beat sanctions
:http://www.campaigniran.org/casmii/index.php?q=node/11307
Rafsanjani changes his mind: Opposition protest ‘Haram’
:http://www.iraq-war.ru/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=242817
fyi, Arnold Evans, ….
I have a question regarding the propaganda war of the west over the slowing down of Iran’s enrichment activity. what are all these for? don’t they undermine their efforts to make Iran scary?
the U.S gov. says Iran’s enrichment was slowed down for a short period of time due to our work; i.e. I suspect computer virus. I have seen them saying 1000 centrifuges were broken or Iran is not adding at the same speed as before. I don’t understand the logic of all these stuff while the facts on the ground are pretty clear for both sides. Iran had difficulty, let’s say, in Nov.2010. so what? let’s Iran stopped enriching for 3 months in the past, again so what?
During Obama’s presidential campaign, he was talking about the logic of confrontation when Iran has 3000 centrifuges as opposed to none situation few years back. does it matter now whether Iran has 8000 or 9000 or 10000? and Iran knows exactly whether or not they are working perfectly, how much uranium she has accumulated, and so on. I mean, when they go and sit on the table to talk, who are they trying to deceive?
the emphasis on dissidents is understandable, but this one is hard to get. or probably I am missing something.
Lucas is a joke. He makes “drive-bys’ here. He’s never once put forward a serious argument with serious facts in a coherent way.
His sole function here is to act as a troll. His frequent links to his own site indicate that he’s trying to get Web hits from redirecting people from this site to his own. Among other things this is bad Web etiquette – which certainly agrees with his general egotistical and, if I may say, “smarmy” attitude that somehow his site is of some significance in the world and that he has only the “real facts”.
If you do go to his site from one of his links, you see video after video posted with little or no analysis on a par with any of the posts from the Leveretts.
His repeated suggestions that because the Leveretts’ organization is on some Iranian blacklist that this means something is ridiculous. I’m sure Iran blacklists most Western sites simply because they can’t tell who is a CIA front and who isn’t. Lucas can’t tell why any site is on a blacklist so he makes insinuations.
This is his M.O. – drive-bys, insinuations, smarmy remarks.
He’s little better than Pak, except his tone is less stupid and aggressive – but no less insulting.
He’s a pure troll. Everyone here really should ignore both Lucas and Pak.
Liz says: February 19, 2011 at 7:07 pm
Demonstrations in Tehran will not bring down the Islamic system.
Without Azeri Turks and Shia Mullahs (of Qum, Isfahan, Mashad, et.) demanding it, the governing structures of Iran will not be altred.
Arnold,
There are no “colonies” in the Middle East. You apparently use “colony” as a synonym for something else, but it isn’t clear just what. We should remember that Egypt was independent even before Nasser took control, and the British were frustrated time and again in their efforts to convince King Farouk to stamp out corruption or at least to rein it in significantly.
Scott Lucas,
“In that 20 months, there has not been a single piece of evidence to my knowledge linking any of those accused of “sedition” to the US Government.”
lol! By the way, you never told us about your funding…
The Jerusalem Post is reporting, or rather hoping for, a mass demo tomorrow
by the opposition in Iran.
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=208960
In effect, it is calling on anyone reading the headline to take to the streets.
Unknown Unknowns: NICE recap of the Zionist attitudes! Well done!
Scott- if Bahrain is also lost, it seems to me that we are now at the pace of loosing one client state a day, do you guys up in Department of Damage Control still think that you can contain this unfolding events, just a little inside information for this tax payer will be much appreciated.
Lucas: “No, I don’t — criticism of a Government or system is not the same as advocating its overthrow. I’m not a big fan of US foreign policy, but I’m not looking for folks to storm the White House.”
And who suggested you were even interested in criticizing US policy? You spend all your time demonizing Iran.
I repeat, since you know full well that the Green Movement has no traction, and therefore Iran is not going to have a regime change from that source, you’re continued efforts to promote the Green Movement and criticize Iran’s government for its actions – and especially on THIS site – clearly shows you are in favor of regime change by any means necessary.
It must really irk you that Rafsanjani has come out in favor of suppressing protests for exactly the reasons I said Iran probably should, quote:
“All activity that does not comply with the law is haram (forbidden under Islam).”
Where Khameni also specifically says: “”It is unacceptable that the elites in the regime take convoluted positions… The elites must take a clear stand against the enemy.”
This is as I said: Iran cannot afford to treat the Green Movement as anything more than a foreign-backed sedition, given the circumstances under which it is in conflict with the US. Rafsanjani explicitly declared this when he said: “”In the current situation, I consider that the current constitution is sufficient… Some people are dissatisfied. I advise them to come back (to the regime) because we have no present alternative.”
Clearly, if Iran was not under direct attack by the US, Iran would have more options to deal with any internal opposition. They could afford to allow protests. Under the existing conditions, it shows weakness to allow riots in the streets.
Again, this is not MY preference – my preference is for all governments to resign immediately. But this is how Iran must behave under the circumstances.
thanks for your response, Scott, but it was an assertion, not an argument.
you wrote:
“The more important point, however, is that the US Government did not prompt or mobilise the post-election protests and the development of the Greens. The political challenge was from Iranians acting on their own issues, not on behalf of Washington. That has remained true for the last 20 months. ”
you know that how?
my original question was, (roughly) based on Feltman’s testimony in Feb 2008, what assurance does anyone have that US is NOT manipulating events in Iran?
Can you answer that question on point? If you can’t then just say, No, I can’t.
Britain, France, Germany and Portugal have said they want an independent Palestine in the UN this year. Let’s hope general recognition is achieved that the US is incapable of acting intelligently in matters involving Israel. Thanks to the Israel lobby.
Arnold,
The restoration of normal relations between the US and Iran would be in Israel’s true best interests.
Similarly, the US would do Israel a major service if it said: Get out of the West Bank and the Golan Heights.
Scott:
Seriously for our entertainment, spell out what you consider the methodological flaws of the IPO survey.
Care to point to even one specific flaw?
Like the 2009 election, you’re throwing away the results only because they don’t match what you hear from your very skewed selection of sources.
FYI My sense was that Mr. Ahmadinejad was ready for a deal in 2007, immediately after the NIE on Iran’s nuclear program.
I think a deal has been possible at any time since 2003, as long as the deal has 1) allowed enrichment and 2) did not put permanent restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, or restrictions that the US and/or West could hold permanently unilaterally.
I don’t think that was more true in 2007 than it was in 2003, or today, but I don’t think the US is now or has ever been willing to accept the terms Iran would accept.
Once that hope is dashed, then they will be ready for a re-examination of their modus operandi, but not before.
A US rapprochement of an independent Iran would represent a tremendous betrayal of Israel. There is nobody on the current US political horizon who could propose that. On the other hand, the Middle East is in complete chaos today and the US does not have the any ideological justification for putting it back the way it was.
Interestingly, the US took over the colonial administration of the region from England more against US values than against English, but did so in relative quiet. I suspect few Americans knew about or cared about the Middle East, and those few were more disproportionately self-identified with Israel than today.
The region can’t be put back into place as much in quiet because there are hundreds of thousands of troops on the ground and there is a very slightly wider range of US citizens who are knowledgeable about the region but not committed primarily to Israel’s security.
The US colonial system containing Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Kuwait and others is now, along with US policy, in total shambles and illegitimate by the US value system. But this illegitimate colonial system has been and continues to be vital for Israel’s viability.
The US needs a new basis of relating to Egypt that does not seem to be forthcoming. When one arrives, that new different basis of relationship that cannot yet be predicted may also be acceptable to Iran.
Arnold,
Nothing will convince Dr. Lucas. He has a story to sell – the repression of the popular green movement in Iran that is campaigning for democracy and civil rights.
Everything else must fit in with this narrative. Any evidence to the contrary must be rejected. This is how the mass media works in the real world.
Scott:
The IPO survey is a very weak reed to cling to regarding the state of opinion amongst Iranian people
There have been plenty of other surveys. But what in particular is wrong with the IPO survey?
Just like you can’t point to a specific reason to believe the 2009 elections were not accurate, you just do, you also most likely have no specific reason to believe the IPO survey is bad.
The bottom line is you think your friends forms a better basis for determining the state of opinion of the Iranian people than scientifically conducted polls – which is reasoning that rightly causes you to be laughed at as naive and ignorant.
An American who “knows” that McCain had more support than Obama “because he’s there” and that people lie in polls wouldn’t be taken seriously enough for any discussion to continue.
Scott says:
The IPO survey is a very weak reed to cling to regarding the state of opinion amongst Iranian people….
Except that it is consistent with the WPO poll, the Globescan poll and the UT poll…and just about every poll conducted over the past 5 years.
Look, my dear professor, you would be seizing on the findings if they showed widespread support for the GM and you know it. Elections and opinion surveys are the only real way to ascertain public sentiment across the whole country.
Reza Esfandiari says: February 19, 2011 at 3:59 pm
I suspect that US & Iran have had back-channel serious talks.
If so, it is very likely that they could not come to any possitive conclusions.
I also think that US will not – per her Grand Strategy – have any interest in coming to an agreement with Iran regarding the Persian Gulf, the Levant, Iraq, etc.
Given the course of events over the last 3 years, this lack of interest by the United States has actually harmed her position, as you have observed. My sense was that Mr. Ahmadinejad was ready for a deal in 2007, immediately after the NIE on Iran’s nuclear program.
It seems to me that US leaders and planners, at the moment, are too consumed by global economic crisis and its impact on the United States to pursue a re-examination of their fundamental operational blue print since the end of the Peace of Yalta. [Consider that 43 million people in the United States now are receiving government help for food.]
Furthermore, I think US leaders and planners, and perhaps the population-at-large, are expecting a dramaticly positive turn of events in the future on all fronts.
Once that hope is dashed, then they will be ready for a re-examination of their modus operandi, but not before.
Pirouz,
There were lots of these pockets last Monday as people tried to get to Azadi. Sometimes the security forces did not go after the protesters; sometimes they did (the Basij “ninja” with two truncheons is becoming an Internet legend).
The sum total was there were a lot of protesters on the streets of Tehran on 25 Bahman, just not in one mass. And a lot of them were beaten and detained on that day.
As for tomorrow, I would make no bets. Just going to be up from 0600 GMT LiveBlogging and seeing what happens.
Best to you,
S.
Reza/UU,
“I bet you George Soros is one of the sponsors of EA WorldView.”
You lose. And it’s not my basement, it’s my living room and the living rooms of a lot of other very good journalists. Amazing how this new media world works….
S.
Reza,
The IPO survey is a very weak reed to cling to regarding the state of opinion amongst Iranian people….
S.
Fiorangela,
“Feltman left no grounds for suspicion that US might have been involved in the Green protests”
Part of the Obama Administration has been focused since June 2009 on the nuclear and geopolitical issues rather than the Green Movement; part of the Obama Administration has offered rhetorical support for human rights in Iran, but even that part has spoken more in general of human rights rather than specific support for the Greens.
The more important point, however, is that the US Government did not prompt or mobilise the post-election protests and the development of the Greens. The political challenge was from Iranians acting on their own issues, not on behalf of Washington. That has remained true for the last 20 months.
In that 20 months, there has not been a single piece of evidence to my knowledge linking any of those accused of “sedition” to the US Government. I would be happy to consider any evidence that could be produced.
Just as Iranians who support Ahmadinejad are not puppets of the President, those who criticise him are not puppets of the Americans.
S.
‘Bahrain government about to collapse’
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/166074.html
Rehmat says:
February 19, 2011 at 4:56 pm
Maybe you should be watching Glenn Beck’s show on Jewish CNN to find out more about the past of Zionist Jewish past.
Umm, I think I’ll pass on Glenn Beck. I’ve got enough static in my head from watching, in a former incarnation, the clowns on the left of the right wing which is Amerikkka: Bill Maher, Jon Stewart, Olberman, Madow, and other such comedians
Unknown Unknowns – Your George Soro is as much a Zionazi liar as any of Israeli leader could be. He funded the anti-Ahmadinejad protests in 2009 – but like the Jewish army in 2006 war in Lebanon – is just love to blow Zionist hot air with no courage to fight himself for his fellow Jews in his native Hungary where as a teenager he helped Nazi soldiers to kill fellow Jews.
Maybe you should be watching Glenn Beck’s show on Jewish CNN to find out more about the past of Zionist Jewish past.
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2010/11/18/glenn-beck-from-islamophobe-to-anti-semite/
Seda ye Tehran:
I really don’t want to know what these freemasons and zionists get up to in those places. They probably conspire to set up the new world order with a global capital based in Jerusalem and with the shekel as an international currency.
Enduring America Reports –
Our Motto: We are one of the top news and analysis sites on current international events – even if “we” say so ourselves. It is the royal “we”, for, as y’all know, its just me, my basement, and the occasional visit from my paymasters.
Soros: Iran Regime Will Fall Soon
Saturday, 19 Feb 2011 01:41
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — Billionaire George Soros says Iran’s ruling regime will topple within the year, although he warns the situation there could become “very ugly” before this happens.
In an interview with CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS” program, Soros said: “Opposition leaders could easily be killed through a false judicial process because the regime is fighting for its survival, because they know that they have committed such crimes that it’s either them or the people,” he said. “But I don’t think that they will be able to succeed.”
Soros also discussed the Middle East and praised President Barack Obama’s handing of the revolt in Egypt that led to the ousting of Egyptian autocrat Hosni Mubarak, according to a transcript of the interview released by CNN. The episode will air on Sunday
*
Mr. Soros:
The good people of Ghazvin called. They said you dropped some loose change in Ghazvin’s Azadi Circus, and that they will be keeping an eye on it for you until you come back and pick it up.
I think Flynt Leverett was right when he said that the longer the United States holds off on serious talks with Iran, the more concessions it will have to make to reach a deal and grand bargain. Unfortunately, idiots and lobbyists are running American foreign policy.
Reza Esfandiari says:
February 19, 2011 at 3:41 pm
I bet you George Soros is one of the sponsors of “Enduring America”.
Then if I were Scotty , I will go for a chateau in Cap D’Antibes , Georgy will pay , he always did…
Reza:
Nah, just straight unsophisticated CIA shtuff.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, it seems the good Arab beebol are no longer “Enduring” America.
Irshad says: February 19, 2011 at 3:26 pm
Russia, China, and India will continue on their current policies.
For the Chinese in particular, the course of events has confirmed their strategic bet on Iran back in 2001.
Indians have no leverage or standing in the Middle East, they are in a strategic cul de sac.
Russians will try to see if they can get anything but they are just slightly better off than Indians; who have to build their position in the Middle East from the ground up.
Indubitably, Indians are in the weakest position.
I bet you George Soros is one of the sponsors of “Enduring America”.
Press TV: Bahrain general union calls for indefinate strike.
VoT:
The good people of Ghazvin will take good care of him, then send him packing.
Bussed-in Prof:
When I was visint San Francisco last summer, I heard a story which I have not, as yet, been able to confirm. It was about a male couple and a female couple who were rushing to get to San Francisco to take advantage of the marriage laws before the state overturned it with Proposition 8. The – I repeat – unconfirmed reports stated that the girls got there first, cause they were lickity split, while the gays were still packing their shit. Sounds reasonable :o)
This was written almost exactly two years ago. Prescient.
“17 February 2009 | Posted in Boycott, Egypt, Palestine
Tadamon! translation from Mashahed, Egypt.
Photo: Hossam el-Hamalawy. Workers strike in Egypt.
In an unprecedented action, the first following the recent Israeli war on Gaza, workers of an Egyptian Fertilizers Company in Suez protested on Saturday February 7th against the export of fertilizers to Israel.
The Fertilizers Egyptian Company is owned by Sawiris family, Naguib Sawiris ranks 62 in Forbes’ world’s richest list, while his father Onsi ranks 96 and his brother Nassif ranks 226, under the name Orascom construction company. Fertilizers Egyptian Company signed an agreement to export 1000 tons of phosphate fertilizer to Israel, at a rate of 100 tons per week. An estimated 800 Egyptians work at this factory.
Two days prior to the protest, workers were surprised by a request from the administration to process an order of unmarked bags that will be transferred by Jordanian trucks to an undisclosed location. As a result, about 100 workers went on strike and refused to process the order because they believed, rightly, that the cargo will travel to Israel.
When the company administration learned about the situation, they broke the strike by threatening the workers of dismissal and deducted 15 days of salary from all workers at the company.
In Egypt things are changing very fast, especially in the last three years, solidarity movements with Palestine and labour movements are taking more and more actions against the Egyptian regime in solidarity with Palestine and also for labour rights in Egypt.”
@fyi says:
February 19, 2011 at 12:42 pm
I am glad that you read Dr Todds book – as there are lots of insights in it that made cetain things clear and lot of what you have been saying fits in with what he has been saying.
I will strongly recommend others on this site to read it too.
I am hoping that an updated version will be released soon, in light of all the things that has happened in the world.
TO ALL: Always look at the bigger picture as to what is going on in the M.E. There are massive tectonics shifts that is going on in the world, and how it all ends I dont know.
Also fyi, kooshy, james c., RSH, Arnold Evans, Fio, et al.
How would Russia, China and India react to the massive changes that is taking place in the Arab world, vi-a-vis their policies with Iran?
I know that recently the Russians have been making noises that Iran does not want nukes, wont support sanctions, etc and the Chinese wanting closer economic and military, yes military ties, with Iran. The Indians have been silent so far – guess they are still reeling from the fact that their External Minister was reading the wrong speech at the UN General Assembly.
@Fio,
I have beenr eading your long posts – thank you for that – its eye opening and saddening that one group of people seem to have literally become the chosen, super people.
A few years ago, a Muslim (he was secular but had Mooslim name) journalists spend some time with British Jews, for the Guardian newspaper – what really came out of from it, was a real threat by the Jewish people he was meeting and spending time with was that the Jews will all dissapear not through another holocaust or mass murder BUT due to the lack of female Jewish ladies that Jewish amles could get married to and settle down and have families. He met a man who complained that, he(the Muslim) was very lucky as there was over 1 billion Muslims out there and plenty of choice as to who he can get married to to preserve his faith and tradition AS opposed to Jewish men, they are restricted in their choice of women to marry and its very hard to meet compatible partners to raise families with and preserve their faith. He seemes very bitter about this. The interesting thing is he was very succesful in terms of job and education.
Fiorangela:
The protests took place just west of downtown Tehran.
More are planned for tomorrow – no location has been given.
We shall see.
UU
Westerwelle is gay , I mean a lifetime gay .
Hope he does not go to Ghazvin , God fobid ::))
Ahmadinejad:
Delavar-e haste-ee
Damaroo bekhab; khaste-ee!
VoT:
Go to bed; you gotta work tomorrow! :D
BREAKING NEWS !!!
German foreign minister Westerwelle in Tehran , will meet Ahamdinejad….
Reza Esfandiari @ 1:33 : That looks like Northern Tehran, yes?
UU channeling Rehmat:
Off off topic, as in really off topic. Do two negatives *always* make a positive??
1. “There is a huge gap between us (Jews) and our enemies �not just in ability but in morality, culture, sanctity of life, and conscience. They are our neighbors here, but it seems as if at a distance of a few hundred meters away, there are people who do not belong to our continent, to our world, but actually belong to a different galaxy.” Israeli president Moshe Katsav. The Jerusalem Post, May 10, 2001
2. “The Palestinians are like crocodiles, the more you give them meat, they want more”…. Ehud Barak, Prime Minister of Israel at the time – August 28, 2000. Reported in the Jerusalem Post August 30, 2000
3. ” [The Palestinians are] beasts walking on two legs.” Menahim Begin, speech to the Knesset, quoted in Amnon Kapeliouk, “Begin and the Beasts”. New Statesman, 25 June 1982.
4. “The Palestinians” would be crushed like grasshoppers … heads smashed against the boulders and walls.” ” Isreali Prime Minister (at the time) in a speech to Jewish settlers New York Times April 1, 1988
5. “When we have settled the land, all the Arabs will be able to do about it will be to scurry around like drugged cockroaches in a bottle.” Raphael Eitan, Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defence Forces, New York Times, 14 April 1983.
6. “How can we return the occupied territories? There is nobody to return them to.” Golda Maier, March 8, 1969.
7. “There was no such thing as Palestinians, they never existed.” Golda Maier Israeli Prime Minister June 15, 1969
8. “The thesis that the danger of genocide was hanging over us in June 1967 and that Israel was fighting for its physical existence is only bluff, which was born and developed after the war.” Israeli General Matityahu Peled, Ha’aretz, 19 March 1972.
9. David Ben Gurion (the first Israeli Prime Minister): “If I were an Arab leader, I would never sign an agreement with Israel. It is normal; we have taken their country. It is true God promised it to us, but how could that interest them? Our God is not theirs. There has been Anti – Semitism, the Nazis, Hitler, Auschwitz, but was that their fault ? They see but one thing: we have come and we have stolen their country. Why would they accept that?” Quoted by Nahum Goldmann in Le Paraddoxe Juif (The Jewish Paradox), pp121.
10. Ben Gurion also warned in 1948 : “We must do everything to insure they ( the Palestinians) never do return.” Assuring his fellow Zionists that Palestinians will never come back to their homes. “The old will die and the young will forget.”
11. “We have to kill all the Palestinians unless they are resigned to live here as slaves.” Chairman Heilbrun of the Committee for the Re-election of General Shlomo Lahat, the mayor of Tel Aviv, October 1983.
12. “Every time we do something you tell me America will do this and will do that . . . I want to tell you something very clear: Don’t worry about American pressure on Israel. We, the Jewish people, control America, and the Americans know it.” – Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, October 3, 2001, to Shimon Peres, as reported on Kol Yisrael radio. (Certainly the FBI’s cover-up of the Israeli spy ring/phone tap scandal suggests that Mr. Sharon may not have been joking.)
13. “We declare openly that the Arabs have no right to settle on even one centimeter of Eretz Israel… Force is all they do or ever will understand. We shall use the ultimate force until the Palestinians come crawling to us on all fours.” Rafael Eitan, Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces – Gad Becker, Yediot Ahronot 13 April 1983, New York Times 14 April 1983.
14. “We must do everything to ensure they [the Palestinian refugees] never do return” David Ben-Gurion, in his diary, 18 July 1948, quoted in Michael Bar Zohar’s Ben-Gurion: the Armed Prophet, Prentice-Hall, 1967, p. 157.
15. ” … we should prepare to go over to the offensive with the aim of smashing Lebanon, Trans-jordan and Syria… The weak point in the Arab coalition is Lebanon [for] the Moslem regime is artificial and easy to undermine. A Christian state should be established… When we smash the [Arab] Legions strength and bomb Amman, we will eliminate Transjordan, too, and then Syria will fall. If Egypt still dares to fight on, we shall bomb Port Said, Alexandria, and Cairo.” ” David Ben-Gurion, May 1948, to the General Staff. From Ben-Gurion, A Biography, by Michael Ben-Zohar, Delacorte, New York 1978.
16. “We must use terror, assassination, intimidation, land confiscation, and the cutting of all social services to rid the Galilee of its Arab population.” Israel Koenig, “The Koenig Memorandum”
17. “Jewish villages were built in the place of Arab villages. You do not even know the names of these Arab villages, and I do not blame you because geography books no longer exist. Not only do the books not exist, the Arab villages are not there either. Nahlal arose in the place of Mahlul; Kibbutz Gvat in the place of Jibta; Kibbutz Sarid in the place of Huneifis; and Kefar Yehushua in the place of Tal al-Shuman. There is not a single place built in this country that did not have a former Arab population.” Moshe Dayan, address to the Technion, Haifa, reported in Haaretz, April 4, 1969.
18. “We walked outside, Ben-Gurion accompanying us. Allon repeated his question, What is to be done with the Palestinian population?’ Ben-Gurion waved his hand in a gesture which said ‘Drive them out!’” Yitzhak Rabin, leaked censored version of Rabin memoirs, published in the New York Times, 23 October 1979.
19. Rabin’s description of the conquest of Lydda, after the completion of Plan Dalet. “We shall reduce the Arab population to a community of woodcutters and waiters” Uri Lubrani, PM Ben-Gurion’s special adviser on Arab Affairs, 1960. From “The Arabs in Israel” by Sabri Jiryas.
20. “There are some who believe that the non-Jewish population, even in a high percentage, within our borders will be more effectively under our surveillance; and there are some who believe the contrary, i.e., that it is easier to carry out surveillance over the activities of a neighbor than over those of a tenant. [I] tend to support the latter view and have an additional argument:…the need to sustain the character of the state which will henceforth be Jewish…with a non-Jewish minority limited to 15 percent. I had already reached this fundamental position as early as 1940 [and] it is entered in my diary.” Joseph Weitz, head of the Jewish Agency’s Colonization Department. From Israel: an Apartheid State by Uri Davis, p.5.
21. “Everybody has to move, run and grab as many hilltops as they can to enlarge the settlements because everything we take now will stay ours… Everything we don’t grab will go to them.” Ariel Sharon, Israeli Foreign Minister, addressing a meeting of militants from the extreme right-wing Tsomet Party, Agence France Presse, November 15, 1998.
22. “It is the duty of Israeli leaders to explain to public opinion, clearly and courageously, a certain number of facts that are forgotten with time. The first of these is that there is no Zionism,colonialization or Jewish State without the eviction of the Arabs and the expropriation of their lands.” Yoram Bar Porath, Yediot Aahronot, of 14 July 1972.
23. “Spirit the penniless population across the frontier by denying it employment… Both the process of expropriation and the removal of the poor must be carried out discreetly and circumspectly.” Theodore Herzl, founder of the World Zionist Organization, speaking of the Arabs of Palestine,Complete Diaries, June 12, 1895 entry.
24. “One million Arabs are not worth a Jewish fingernail.” — Rabbi Yaacov Perrin, Feb. 27, 1994 [Source: N.Y. Times, Feb. 28, 1994, p. 1]
25. “We Jews, we are the destroyers and will remain the destroyers. Nothing you can do will meet our demands and needs. We will forever destroy because we want a world of our own.” (You Gentiles, by Jewish Author Maurice Samuels, p. 155).
26. “We will have a world government whether you like it or not. The only question is whether that government will be achieved by conquest or consent.” (Jewish Banker Paul Warburg, February 17, 1950, as he testified before the U.S. Senate).
27. “We will establish ourselves in Palestine whether you like it or not…You can hasten our arrival or you can equally retard it. It is however better for you to help us so as to avoid our constructive powers being turned into a destructive power which will overthrow the world.” (Chaim Weizmann, Published in “Judische Rundschau,” No. 4, 1920)
28. “Our race is the Master Race. We are divine gods on this planet. We are as different from the inferior races as they are from insects. In fact, compared to our race, other races are beasts and animals, cattle at best. Other races are considered as human excrement. Our destiny is to rule over the inferior races. Our earthly kingdom will be ruled by our leader with a rod of iron. The masses will lick our feet and serve us as our slaves.” – Israeli prime Minister Menachem Begin in a speech to the Knesset [Israeli Parliament] quoted by Amnon Kapeliouk, “Begin and the Beasts,” New Statesman, June 25, 1982
29. “Tell me, do the evil men of this world have a bad time? They hunt and catch whatever they feel like eating. They don’t suffer from indigestion and are not punished by Heaven. I want Israel to join that club. Maybe the world will then at last begin to fear us instead of feeling sorry. Maybe they will start to tremble, to fear our madness instead of admiring our nobility. Let them tremble; let them call us a mad state. Let them understand that we are a savage country, dangerous to our surroundings, not normal, that we might go wild, that we might start World War Three just like that, or that we might one day go crazy and burn all the oil fields in the Middle East. Even if you’ll prove to me that the present war is a dirty immoral war, I don’t care. We shall start another war, kill and destroy more and more. And do you know why it is all worth it? Because it seems that this war has made us more unpopular among the civilized world.We’ll hear no more of that nonsense about the unique Jewish morality. No more talk about a unique people being a light upon the nations. No more uniqueness and no more sweetness and light. Good riddance.” –Former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
30. “The Modern Age is the Jewish Age, and the twentieth century, in particular, is the Jewish Century.” -Yuri Slezkine, Professor of History at University of California, Berkeley, “The Jewish Century”; Princeton University Press
31. “What shocks and worries me is the narrow-mindedness and the shortsightedness of our military leaders. They seem to presume that the State of Israel may or even must-behave in the realm of international relations according to the laws of the jungle- -the long chain of false incidents and hostilities we have invented, and so many clashes we have provoked;” – From Diary of Moshe Sharett, former Primer Minister of Israel in Livia Rokach, Israel’s Sacred Terrorism published 980
Unknown Unknowns says: February 19, 2011 at 2:32 No you are not right.
The Anglo-Saxons have an obsession with how women are treated all over the world.
In an American propaganda movie, the Skipper of a US submarine engaged in war against Imperial Japan, states: “…they just do not have the same respect for women that we do..”
For myself, I never concern myself to this level about other people’s women.
For those who are interested, search for “Temple Prostitution” and “Dalit” and “India”. You will soon discover how orphan Dalit girls are made into Temple Prostitutes all over India; whereby they service any and all village men.
This video contains the largest numbers of demonstrators yet uploaded (to my knowledge). There are between 200 and 300 protestors, overwhelmingly students.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dq24RZbPV4Y&feature=player_embedded#at=862
Only a single squad of NAJA antiriot police van be seen blocking the unlawful assembly (perhaps more are positioned as backups). There are no lethal force firearms in evidence, nor are AWCVs employed.
Scott,
More of this kind of thing Sunday?
Bill Maher Slams Muslim Men’s Treatment Of Women, Gets Heckled By Audience Member
“Talk to women who’ve ever dated an Arab man. The results are not good.” — Bill Maher
Webmaster’s Commentary (from WRH):
My first marriage was to a Jewish women. That wasn’t good either, you racist asshole!
Maher is indeed just another PEPy racist pig.
PEP = RRZA (Peogressive Except on Palestine = Regressive, Reactionary Zionist Asshole)
James Canning says: February 19, 2011 at 2:00 pm
The pathology of the African-American population, indubitably, must start with the legacy of Slavery and then work its way up the historical chain, including the welfare system in the United States that destroyed their family structure by denigrating men – a consequence of rabid Anglo-Saxon feminization of US and UK.
It also must deal with the unfortunate fact, observed by many foreign visitors to the United States, that African-American males are unwilling to be conformant to any set of rules.
Scott,
If you bothered to read the scientific surveys of public opinion, about 13% of Iranians inside Iran don’t like the IRI system – that is over 6 million people.
This is a significant minority that is a threat to majority rule if it seeks to cause as much chaos and havoc in society as possible.
Once again, in order for the majority to respect the rights of the minority, the latter has to respect the will of the former. Or else democracy becomes meaningless.
James Canning says: February 19, 2011 at 1:56 pm
I think we can both be in agreement that these types of policies are defeats for “universlaist” concepts (which owe their existence of the Revelations).
In US, specially, the African-centric curricula has only served to dis-service the Black children into marginalization in the cultural, commercial, and political life of their country. Likewise for the rootless children of the Mexican and assoretd other Spanish-speaking immigrants into the United States.
US have very many deep-seated social problems that wealth of that country has obscured until recently.
Breaking News
The authoritative Enduring America in association with Faux News reports:
Billary Clinton, the JU.S. (get it? :P) Secretary of State, has rejected arguments by Israel, “the only democracy in the Middle East”, calling for proportional representation in Bahrain, which Israel claims would give the Shi’a majority 80% of the seats in the Bahraini parliament, together with the premiership, putting an end to the 200-year old AAl-e Khalifa dynasty, Scotty-Boy, the valient and tenatious reporter and resident virus, “working for one of the top news and analysis sites on current international events”, on form as usual, did not let this seeming discrepancy between the rhetoric and actions of the so-called Axis of Weasels pass by. In response to his persistent pointed questioning (which US authorities have become accustomed to of late), Billlary responded by stating that while she appreciates Israel’s concerns and feels their pain and their endless love for her neighbors, “America’s standards for democracy are higher, however,” she stated, and thus, the United States, she continued, supports a Sudan-like plebicite by which, she is certain, the Bahrainis will vote overwhelmingly to be reunited with their historic Iranian roots as become, once again, another province of that “great nation.”
At this point, Scotty-Boy has a rude awakening from his dream, and reaching for a Wet-Wipes, strategically placed close at hand on his night stand, groggily wipes the najesaat from his person, rolls over, and goes back to sleep, perchance to dream.
fyi,
Unscrupulous (not unsrupulous). And as I have mentioned before, the relatively poor performance of “blacks” in the US owes a great deal to the fact the least educated of blacks have the most children, and the best educated have the fewest.
Pirouz,
I don’t read Miller’s reference to “people on the ground” as referring to a majority — it means the grassroots of the Green Movement.
The Government and some in the establishment claim that reformists are less relevant because of the election result and their “actions” — one can just as easily contend that this supposed irrelevance has been the outcome of Government repression. If Iranians believe that the only discontent over political and economic conditions comes from a “few thousand radicalized students”, the Government’s line might work.
If not….
S.
fyi,
The explanation for seemingly separatist programmes for various minority groups in the US virtually always is to be found in the ambitious, unsrupulous power and wealth seeking manipulators within those groups, who have their own agendas.
For example, for decades willing “white” adoptive parents were not allowed to adopt mixed-race or “black” children! Why? Apparently because they would cause the children to succeed in life, and lessen the pressure for discontent on the part of “blacks”. Sheer vicious idiocy. Same problem in UK, with willing non-Muslim parents not allowed to adopt children of Muslim parents. Same vicious idiocy.
Fatemeh,
I must also show this other video of the greens beating up someone they don’t like – also during Monday’s unrest.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0aaYJm_Kgo&feature=feedu
And their supporters, including Scott Lucas, liken them to a “Gandhi-like” movement for civil rights!!!
Anne,
Yes, the Israel lobby and Israel are trying to do with the EU and Nato what they aleady have done with US foreign policy: subvert it to serve their own agenda of Zionist expansionism. Even if that means perpetual war at gigantic expense.
Sadly, Rich American Jews have subverted the national security interests of the American people, and they are intent on doing the same thing in Europe.
Reza Esfandiari,
Thank you for the link. These people are really sick. The whole idea was to cause maximun suffering for commuters going home.
On confronting street demonstrations:
http://30mail.net/weblog/2011/feb/18/fri/7641
Scott and everyone else:
This is the “dramatic” video, released by green supporters, showing protesters hurling flares and stones at police on Monday and blocking roads during rush hour.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dq24RZbPV4Y
And they wonder why the adjective “seditious” is used!
Scott,
Eric Brill has mentioned one or two times on this forum that Iran should sign the Additional Protocol as a means of demonstrating transparency and providing for itself a posture that cannot be assailed by charges of deception.
I invite you to read this testimony that Jeffrey Feltman presented at a hearing before the US State Department, Commission on International Religious Freedoms. Study carefully Feltman’s remarks and answers to questions, then try to make a strong case that Feltman left no grounds for suspicion that US might have been involved in the Green protests and that there is no ground for suspicion that US is involved in subversive activity in Iran today.
here’s the video: http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/FreedominI It’s a 2 3/4 hour session but Feltman’s testimony is in the first 45 min. Nevertheless, you might want to listen to Barbara Slavin and Suzanne Maloney refute Feltman’s assertions and attempt to persuade the Commission that infiltrating Iran is a very bad idea.
here’s the transcript: :http://www.uscirf.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2080&Itemid=1
Dan Cooper says:
February 19, 2011 at 11:43 am
Eric A. Brill says:
Re; Neda February 18, 2011 at 8:31 am
Dan: Bravo! One of your most powerful posts yet. The PAU-city (Pitiful As Usual) of Scotty-Boy’s response patent, as usual. To me, it did nothing to take away from the cogency of your argument, which was built on a synergy of subtle elements, while his rebuttal was pathetic.
And then, he has the unmitigated audacity (to quote Frank Zappa again :o) to say something like this:
Scott Lucas says:
February 19, 2011 at 7:32 am
I just drop by when I have a spare minute from working for one of the top news and analysis sites on current international events.
My God: may Scotty-Boy’s bottom be spanked by the vetoing right-hand of Susan Rice:D Ameen.
Irshad:
Read “Apres l’empire” Dr. Todd by Tbook.
I learnt from it, thanks.
I think, per the author’s view-point, US has not yet changed course.
Still picking fights with small powers to prove its prowess.
In spite of the economic crisis since 2007.
It demonstrates the institutional inertia of US.
And really on the mark on the Anglo-Saxon obsession with alien people’s womenfolk; “we are bombing Afghanistan to kill the misogynists and liberate the Afghan women.”.
Also quite correct in diagnosing internal US scene where the notion of “Diversity” is, in reality, the policy and pratice of segregating ethno-lingustic groups from “Whites” – certainly a conceptual defeat for universalist notions and claims in that country.
I also think that the book makes it clear that the hollowing out of US economy means that she has nothing to offer to Iran.
Scott,
In the Miller piece, he gives the reader the impression that “the people on the ground” represent the majority. I think we both know that’s not correct, right?
So when you take that into consideration, plus the fact that “the Reformists” have been rendered less relevant to actual Iranian politics (partly dues to the 2009 election result and partly due to their actions afterward), plus the fact that the majority are repulsed by the actions of the slender minority that’s become radicalized; so how is Iran’s political establishment (“the regime”) on a tightrope? Seems like they’re stronger and more unified than ever–thanks to the actions of the defeated presidential candidates and a few thousand radicalized students.
Dan,
“Scott knows his paymasters Israel”
That sort of blows up the rest of the post, since you clearly have no idea how EA has covered Israel and Palestine.
But on Neda, all your unsupported conspiracy-theorising (and that of Reza’s equally unsupported effort) can be handled with this:
Neda was in the wrong place at the wrong time, shot by a man who was too quick on the trigger in a tense situation.
So were dozens of others on 20 June 2009 — so if you must play with conspiracy theories, explain how the US and Israel took out each and every one of them.
Best wishes,
S.
Richard Steven Hack says: February 19, 2011 at 3:10 am
You are right of course.
Once US-EU Axis have retreated from the Middle East, Mr. Khamenei can revisit the issues again.
Reza,
Read. Then try and come up with a single point to respond to Miller.
S.
Reza Esfandiari says: February 17, 2011 at 2:01 pm
Americans do not need Bahrain or the 5-th Fleet there. It is not militarily significant for them.
The lessons from Bahman 25 are clear. There is no green movement.
Lessons from 25 Bahman and path ahead
http://www.negahdar.net/index.php/article/166/
Eric A. Brill says:
Re; Neda February 18, 2011 at 8:31 am
Scott knows his paymasters Israel and its ruthless and murderous Mossad agents are behind Neda’s killing.
Israel’sagant are renowned for this type of assassinations.
Israel has been desperate to destabilize the Islamic republic for the past 32 years and has been prepared to go to any length to achieve her objective.
Scotts does not show the picture of the thousands of innocent Palestinian women and children blown up to pieces by Israeli soldiers but he is so willing and eager to exploit and fabricate the killing of one young woman in street of Tehran.
Scott’s statement that Witnesses saw a basiji fire the shot that killed Neda is totally fabricated.
You correctly explained to him that some people hold him only because they saw he was a card-carrying Basij member and then let him go because no one saw him shoot Neda.
You are a lawyer and aware that in any murder case, establishing “the motive” is one of the most important aspects of any investigation.
Now let us analyze the motive and who was behind Neda’s killing and benefited from it.
There are two fundamental questions:
1. What would the government of Iran gain by killing an innocent girl in a quiet side street?
2. What would a “Foreign agent or the enemies of Islamic Republic” gain by killing her?
At the time when she was shot:
Neda was not participating in any demonstration.
She was not wearing any green clothes.
She was not yelling obscenities at the regime,
She was quietly strolling back to her car with her music teacher in a side street away from demonstrations.
In those circumstances, A Basiji could not distinguish if Neda was a pro or anti government supporter, so Why would he want to kill her? There was absolutely no motive for him to kill Neda at that moment.
This is a really an important question and perhaps Scotts can enlighten us with his honest and unbiased opinion. Lol
From what we have witnessed from Israel’s assassinations in different countries during the past 30 years, and Israel‘s desperation to discredit the Islamic republic,
all indications are that Neda was “assassinated to order” by An Israeli agent to create an icon and generate maximum publicity to tarnish the image of the Iranian government.
CIA and in particular Mossad’s agents specialize in this type of operations.
They deliberately chose a “beautiful girl” in order to get maximum exposure.
One needs to ask why they did not kill her music teacher who was by her side.
In this regard, Reza Esfandiari eloquently articulated and wrote:
http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=35869
“It is inconceivable that an Islamic regime which understands the power of martyrdom in its own culture would sanction the cold-blooded murder of an innocent and ordinary young woman on the streets of Tehran.
However it is every bit conceivable that those who thought the opposition movement needed a symbol and icon of resistance – recipients and supporters no doubt of a $400m CIA-backed destabilization program for Iran [11] – would have arranged this horrible murder and try and pin it on the Iranian authorities.”
Ahmed says: February 19, 2011 at 10:19 am
For years, the Iranian Government has not tolerated organized opposition.
This is a mistaken political strategy the extreme application of which brought down the Shah, Be Ali, and Mobarak.
The government of Iran has no execuse for the way it has dealt with the Iran Freedom Movement, for example.
The Greens phenomenon is again, like many other things in Iran, is a self-inflicted wound.
It pains me to see that a 100 years after the Constitutional Revolution in Iran – which sought to linit autocracy and usher in Freedom and Justice – the young people of Iran are out in the street shouting “Death to…” instead of enjoying their youth.
A new comedy piece by David the axis of evil man, a real good read if one must be fully prepared before watching tonight’s SNL
David Frum: America can’t afford to ignore the chaos in Bahrain
David Frum February 19, 2011 – 7:58 am
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/02/19/david-frum-america-cant-afford-to-ignore-the-chaos-in-bahrain/
If it’s about the 2009 elections then why has there not been any effort on the part of the Greens to push through electoral reforms and polices leading to greater transparency for the forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections in 2012 / 2013.
If they believe that there are economic windfalls to be gained by opening up to a declining power like the USA and Europe then this may also be short-sighted. A free and independent Arab world recently rescued from the yolk of US imperialism will naturally gravitate towards trading with technological leaders like China, Turkey, India and Iran. How ironic if the entire Arab word was to become free and independent and Iran was to become the new client state in the ME.
Disunity at this point in time makes absolutely no sense especially for a movement that claims to be Khomeinist and committed to strengthing and preserving the revolution. If that’s not the case then they should be honest enough and lay their cards on the table and see how much currency there is in Iran for their true aspirations. Anything else is a coup.
Ahmed,
Good point. This should be a time of national unity. The uprisings in the Arab world are peculiar to the Arabs. The greens really have no relation to this at all.
Scott,
LOL…James Miller??
The guy from Dissected news or whatever he calls his outlet?
This man has the arrogance to suppose he is some expert on Iran.
Go back into your little box.
Good boy.
The IRI has a once in a lifetime opportuntiy to become the kingpins of the ME. Why are the Greens so intent on spoiling this?
Pak, just drop it, you are an angry troll.
ScumPack says:
February 19, 2011 at 9:21 am
SP , more important is , that you are the little boy in the movie , who shits in his pants , I thought this was clear :)….
Dear Richard,
What a surprise: the reclusive anarchist-cum-transhumanist thinks he is a character from a movie. I bet you have wet dreams about being Neo too.
Scott Lucas,
I wonder why nobody believes you.
Fiorangela and Richard Steven Hack,
Sharing your personal experiences of your detentions is appreciated. I have friends who have experienced various degrees of detention and maltreatment similar to yours (and in once case, much worse than RSH’s) for objecting to and struggling against discriminatory practices against black children in the school systems and legal dumping of toxic and hazardous wastes in poor neighborhoods. These are not 50 or 60 years ago even. These are within the past two decades. Interestingly, in one case, a judge presiding over a case that ruled in favor of the toxic dumping did not feel he had a conflict of interests when he was alerted to the fact that he had royalty and stock of more than a million dollar from the very corporation which was the culprit.
RSH,
Right on the mark (and humorous) with the Tommy Lee script.
From:
Scott Lucas says:
February 19, 2011 at 7:01 am
To:
Scott Lucas says:
February 19, 2011 at 8:14 am
With 6 comments in between and Scotty calls this ” spare minutes ” , now I know the defintion of a ‘ minute’.
Latest from James Miller evaluating the position for the Government and the Green Movement after 25 Bahman, yesterday’s rally, and the house arrests:
Iran Analysis: Walking the Same Green Tightrope
http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2011/2/18/iran-analysis-walking-the-same-green-tightrope.html
Goli,
“I hope the CIA pays you overtime for your ‘spare minute’.”
No. Nor do I get money from the New America Foundation, which is on the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence’s “blacklist” of foreign groups (see separate exchange with my good friend Liz).
S.
Helen Thomas steps on Jewish Lobby’s toes; Again!
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2011/02/19/helen-thomas-steps-on-lobbys-toes-again/
Scott Lucas,
I hope the CIA pays you overtime for your “spare minute.”
Reza,
“Lucas has more interest in this blog than he does his own.”
Well, no. I just drop by when I have a spare minute from working for one of the top news and analysis sites on current international events. It’s good for a bit of relaxation….
S.
kooshy,
You still haven’t read how we treated the Telegraph report on the IRGC letter, have you?
Go on, you might be surprised….
http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2011/2/19/the-latest-from-iran-19-february-is-that-all-there-is.html
S.
Scott Lucas,
You were the one who seemed the most tense yesterday. Also, it’s clear as day that you have an agenda.
RSH,
Hope you’re feeling a bit less tense today.
“You OBVIOUSLY support regime change in Iran.”
No, I don’t — criticism of a Government or system is not the same as advocating its overthrow. I’m not a big fan of US foreign policy, but I’m not looking for folks to storm the White House.
S.
Pirouz,
Thanks for the note on the videos. I’ll check to make sure we did not label it in our description as police gunfire (since we knew of none occurring on the day).
S.
From Reuters Africa, about two hours ago. Looks like they are at the mouth of the canal in the Red Sea now, and could well have already entered the canal. Iran has said that the ships are not carrying any weapons; maybe on their way back they will be carrying the S-300 system Russia sold Syria :o) Just kidding. With the Rafah border crossing now open every day and the whole of the ME and Northern Africa on fire, JU.S.A. is going to have its hands full for a while.
Egypt says Iran ships can use Suez Canal: source
Sat Feb 19, 2011 8:26am GMT
By Marwa Awad
CAIRO (Reuters) – Egypt has approved the passage of two Iranian navy ships through the Suez Canal, an army source said, a move that could annoy Israel, whose foreign minister has called Iran’s actions a provocation.
“Egypt has agreed to the passage of two Iranian ships through the Suez Canal,” the army source told Reuters.
State television and Egypt’s official news agency subsequently reported the news, without giving sources.
Iran’s request was an early diplomatic test for Egypt’s interim military government, which has close ties to the United States and has been ruling since February 11 when President Hosni Mubarak stepped down in the face of a popular revolt.
Egypt’s Western allies are watching for hints of any shift in policy towards its Middle East neighbours, especially Israel with which it has a peace treaty.
The two ships would be the first Iranian military vessels to transit the canal since Iran’s 1979 revolution.
To navigate the strategic waterway, naval vessels need the approval of Egypt’s foreign and defence ministries.
It was not clear when the ships would enter the canal. They were not on the list of vessels scheduled to sail through on Saturday, a Suez Canal Authority official said.
Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said on Wednesday that Iran’s plan to send the ships through the canal en route to Syria was a “provocation”.
Israel’s state-funded Channel One television said later Lieberman, a stridently far-right partner in the conservative coalition, had spoken out of turn and the Defence Ministry “had preferred to ignore” the ships’ approach.
There was no immediate comment from Israel after approval was given.
Egypt’s military said the request stated the Iranian ships did not carry military equipment or nuclear or chemical cargo. It said they were in the Red Sea, at the canal’s southern end.
Another high ranking Ikhwan member praises Iran:
http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/149112/موضع-یک-عضو-اخوان-در-مورد-رهبر-انقلاب
James: Yes thats sickening, we can never accept the zionist regime in NATO, europe should not be used as a tool for the warmongering israelis. Israel used US for Iraq, now they want to use the european countries for their wars.
Iranian@Iran says:
February 19, 2011 at 2:46 am
I saw the pictures .
Susan Rice looked like shit , when she raised her hand for the Veto.
Bill: Ah, I see from your post in the previous thread that you’re on a par with Lucas and Pak.
I dealt with the issue of why Iran is doing what it does with regard to the protests in a post below directed to Eric. I will repost it here (because it’s getting hard to find anything with all the posts in this thread):
Eric: The problem with both your policy prescriptions for Iran is that they amount to the same thing: Iran’s government should take an action for which it receives no real benefit and for which it will incur real costs..
We’ve gone over the unilateral implementation of the AP, so I won’t belabor that here – if you don’t.
But the notion that Iran should allow the Green Movement to protest is on the same order and suffers from the exact same flaws.
Now personally, I can’t say anything. Because I’m an anarchist. I can’t sit here and say that Iran should allow free protests because if I take that position, then I have to go all the way and say that the entire Iran government should resign (as should the governments of the US, Russia, China, and the island of Tonga.)
So what? So I don’t make any such declaration. This is not my personal policy prescription for the government of Iran because my personal opinion is there should be no government of Iran or anywhere else. And the same applies to my policy prescription that Iran should not implement the AP unilaterally. The other difference is that the issue of Iran’s internal politics is irrelevant to me EXCEPT when it is being used as propaganda to justify war, whereas the other issue is directly related to that war possibility.
Instead, I point out to you that Iran’s government is what it is. And it’s not going to change any time soon despite what ignorant fanatics like Pak and agitators like Lucas want. And therefore there is no point in taking the point of view that Iran’s government should do anything other than what it is doing.
In other words, if you want to say that Iran should do what you suggest because that is your personal preference, that is fine. But if you suggest that it is in Iran’s best interests, then I say from the standpoint of the Iranian government it is not.
As Reza and others have pointed out, Iran is under attack. It considers the Green Movement, regardless of how many Iranian natives are involved in it, as a tool of the US and Israel. It’s the same attitude that Obama takes toward the US antiwar movement which is why the FBI spies on all these organizations and organizes SWAT raids on them periodically to seize their computers and hassle them for no legal reason whatsoever. As far as the government is concerned, if Mousavi isn’t a paid agent of the CIA, he might as well be. So why bother treating him any differently?
It is not a question of whether Iran can afford to show itself as “strong and unafraid of the Green Movement”, just as it is not a question of whether Iran can gain some PR benefit from unilaterally implementing the AP. The fact is that Iran will not get any significant benefit from doing either compared to what it will actually lose. It is much safer for Iran’s government to simply stomp on the Green Movement than to allow a seditious, foreign-backed movement aiming at overthrowing the democratically elected regime to possibly gain strength by any display of weakness on the part of the state.
This is not a position *I* endorse – it’s the rational position for Iran’s government to take under the circumstances. IF – I say again IF – I were in Khamenei’s shoes, I’d probably do the same thing. I would be saying to Mousavi, “You want to overthrow the government? Then you are the enemy.” And if there is one thing that is true, as Richard Marcinko once said, “Always treat your enemy as if he is your enemy, because he will invariably treat you that way.” So if I were Khamenei, I would be trying to screw Mousavi any way I can, secure that with less than 8% of the population wanting to screw me, this guy really can’t do anything but cause me a headache. So why should I put up with that headache? For some PR value? For whom? I’m ALREADY demonized by the entire Western world! Why should I allow these jokers to start at one level of unrest, which already draws attention to my demonization, then recruit more idiots as a result of their “success in defying me” to cause me even more headaches? I’m going to get demonized whether I stomp on them or not. If I let them babble, I get demonized. If I don’t let them babble, I get demonized. But if I don’t let them babble, I at least have some direct control over their actions, movements and initiative. I retain the initiative.
Iran is doing the right thing from their point of view. Your prescription simply would not do them any good just as your AP prescription won’t do them any good. And in both cases the costs to the regime would be higher than any possible PR benefit which has already flown the coop thanks to the bad intentions of their enemies.
It’s not even entirely an issue of maintaining security and order, as Reza says, although that IS part of the headache these people cause Khamenei.
It’s a matter of screwing with your enemy. This is how the real world works. You screw your enemy any way you can, whether it’s outside your own laws or not. The US does this. Israel does this. China does this. Russia does this. The EU does this. Iran might as well do it.
As Marcinko also points out, the only rule in SpecWar is that there are no rules. When someone is out to get you, you get them first, if you can.
This is not a democratic liberal playground where some people get to play by the rules while others are allowed to dance around them. This is realpolitik. You never fight with one hand – or worse, both – tied behind him. When, like Indie, someone pulls a sword on you, you pull a gun.
Iran did the right thing – again, strictly from IT’S viewpoint, NOT MINE – I’m sorry, I’ll read that AGAIN – strictly from IT’S viewpoint, NOT MINE – when it banned the protests.
Now I await the litany of idiots like Pak to step up and proclaim that I’m some sort of fake anarchist for siding with the Iranian government, despite two repetitions of “NOT MINE” (which makes 3 repetitions). Because idiots like Pak can’t read and don’t bother to try.
Here is how I dismissed Pak in the last thread for those who missed it.
Pak: In fact, admitting that you’re a student has also drop kicked whatever minute atom of credibility – and again, I use the term loosely – you had left here.
Your problem as a result of being a student is that you seem to have absorbed no concept of how standard intellectual discussions is conducted. You plowed in here like a bull in a china shop, lambasting everyone within reading distance, ignoring facts, reasoning like someone under a bad dose of ketamine, ignoring all responses that didn’t fit your bias, demanding this and that while blithely ignoring all requests for responses to facts presented to you. And a variety of other unpleasant behaviors reflecting no regard whatsoever for either polite society or intellectual honesty or pretty much anything else of value to a human.
You remind me of a scene in one of my favorite movies, “Black Moon Rising”, starring Tommy Lee Jones. Great film, rent it.
At the beginning of the movie, Tommy Lee comes in to a convenience store, looking to buy a cup of coffee before going on to his burglary assignment at a mob-run casino in Las Vegas. As he’s pouring himself a cup, some young moron plows into the store waving a gun and shouting to open the cash register or Tommy Lee and the store owner are “dead men”.
Tommy Lee, a professional criminal, looks at this idiot and says, “Is this something new for you, son?”
The kid yells at him to shut up.
Tommy Lee says, “Fine. There’s the cash register – and right up there is the television camera.”
Kid naturally looks right up at the camera.
Tommy Lee says, “And that’s a nice full face shot. How about a profile?”
Then he says, “Look, there’s a couple of ways we can do this…”
The kid yells at him to shut up again.
Tommy Lee says, “Fine. I’m just saying you’ve got to think these things through. You just don’t come walking into some place waving a gun around and expect the world to put up with that. It’s not acceptable behavior.”
Kid asks him if he thinks he can stop him.
Tommy Lee says, “Hell, no! Go right ahead. Probably got a minute or two.”
Sirens start sounding in the distance.
Tommy Lee says, “Maybe you don’t. Just trying to help you, son.”
Kid runs out of the store empty handed.
Tommy Lee says, “Boy’s got a bad attitude…”
That pretty much sums you up, Pak.
You are the weakest link.
Dismissed.
Bill: EVERYONE here has debated – and crushed – Lucas over and over, including me.
He is not a debater. He’s a troll propagandist who comes in here to demonize Iran, then lies about it.
It’s irrelevant to the point of this site whether Iran should or should not allow Green Movement protests, whether the Ahmadinejad election was fraudulent or not (and by every conceivable analysis from everyone except Lucas it was), etc., etc. The goal of this site is to push the notion that engagement with Iran – regardless of its internal politics – is the way to go and that sanctions and war are not.
Lucas, Pak and the rest barge in here with the intent of demonizing Iran in order to justify a US military attack. That’s their real motivation – regime change. Lucas even lies and says only Iranians should be allowed to change their government, when it’s painfully obvious from his tactics that he wants the government overthrown any way it can be. He knows full well that with only 8% of Iranians not particularly happy about their government that the Green Movement has no traction. So his only possible motivation for continuing his drive-by demonization is because he wants to spread the idea that Iran’s government should be overthrown by external forces.
He hasn’t once provided any real evidence whatsoever for any of his assertions, and he’s been refuted so many times everyone here is sick of it.
Then we have clowns like Pak and 25Bahman, I’ll deal with Pak in my next post.
Outrageous:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/165923.html
Demo. held against Mousavi after Friday prayers in Tehran (other demos. were held in other cities):
http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/149031/تصاویر-راهپیمایی-مردم-علیه-فتنه-25-بهمن
Bill
To be fair to Richard Hack, Scott Lucas doesn’t debate. His job is to attack Iran.
Bill,
Lucas has more interest in this blog than he does his own.
I wonder why?
This blog is unmoderated, free and the threads are neatly prepared.
All credit to Hillary, Flynt and Ben for maintaining such a site – I don’t see the like of it elsewhere.
Richard Hack,
“That wouldn’t surprise me. There is no limit to the intellectual dishonest of people like Lucas.”
Are you too scared to debate Mr. Lucas in a civil manner? Is that why you resort to childish ad hominem attacks against him? In all sincerity why not debate you him. You might find you can influence his thought process and “gasp” actually change his view. Conversely you may actually learn something from him as well. Try Eric Brill’s well nuanced rebuttals as an example you might find it to be quite productive. I don’t always agree with Eric but I have learned a great deal from the well sourced points he presents out.
Thx
Bill
Off topic,
To those of you interested in formula 1 motor racing, I`ve just set up a facebook page calling for the boycott of the Bahrain grand prix next month if it goes ahead ! Please join in via the link below :
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Moral-Accountability-to-Formula-1-Boycott-Bahrain-Grand-Prix/188401241200832#!/pages/Bring-Moral-Accountability-to-Formula-1-Boycott-Bahrain-Grand-Prix/188401241200832?sk=wall
Pak,
The pro-establishment rallies are designed to put political pressure on Mousavi – not to show the support for government necessarily. The 30th December mass rallies against the greens, back in 2009, put Mousavi back in his little box.. for a year.
The government will not gain legitimacy by allowing a pro-green march – it will only embolden the opposition to claim that it represents all Iranians if it can assemble a few thousand people in Azadi square and then call on the government to resign. That isn’t democracy – it is mob rule. This may have happened in Egypt but only because people had been denied the opportunity to vote in a fair election – unlike in Iran.
The constitution (Article 27) allows for peaceful protests in principle but on the proviso with respect to public order and security.
I support the suppression of Mousavi and his seditious motives based on creating as much chaos and havoc in society as possible.
The people can have their say in the next election cycle.
Pak says: February 18, 2011 at 9:19 pm
The Middle Class people everywhere have a disease called “search for respectability”.
That, however, is irrelevant to states, including Iran.
Iran is not a superpower and is not interested in that; you can look at the Iranian military budgest as a percentage of GDP since 1989.
Respect for the Consititution of the Islamic Republic, measured by the conformance of the state to it, is partial. It is not absolute respect and it is not absolute disrespect. The entrenchment of the Rule of Law is the work of decades, if not centuries.
You can changes the leaders of Iran tomorrow and put into place a new dispensation, we will still be in this same situation.
Just like US and Mr. Andrew Jackson’s absolute disregard for US COnstitution when it came to deal with the Cherokee Nation.
Pak,
Foreign back thugs loose the right to protest after showing that they are violent and that their aim is to cause difficulty for ordinary people in the most crowded parts of Tehran.
Scott Lucas,
I hope everyone has time to go over the thread to see your responses to different questions. It reveals the worthlessness of your work as well as that of your personality.
Reza , I don’t even know if such a letter exist or not , but what the letter is cleverly suppose to do is to assure the demonstrator not to be scared to show up since there is no danger of being shoot at since the military has supposedly declared is not partisan(Egypt)
Next is no matter who shows up or not they are going to play same low quality close up videos on YouTube claiming that was a bait to bring a larger crowd of demonstrator to roundup.
Paneer- jan man, I don’t know if you still like to use that tag, but since I first got to know you with that tag name I still like to call you that, it all like EA, tastes a little cheesy to me, I admire that you are a good student of professor Lucas, never less you are still a student need a bit more experience. Site tight and watch the show it just started to get exiting.
Dear Reza,
“You don’t confirm legitimacy through street rallies.”
Indeed, which is why these state-sponsored, organised, and promoted rallies are useless. If you re-read my post, you will see that I said that the regime will confirm its legitimacy by allowing peaceful protests.
Why?
Because the constitution says so. Because the regime supports demonstrators in other countries. Because the regime claims that the Green Movement is dead. Because the regime claims that 50 million people rally in support of them.
Dear fyi,
Firstly, Iran has a lot to prove, especially if it wants to be respected as a regional superpower.
But what I call for is not to prove anything to the outside world; it is to prove everything to Iranians themselves. Allow peaceful protests (i.e. no threats by the IRGC to crush protests, and a promise by the police to do their job, and protect civilians), and allow foreign media to cover the events (so people do not need to film the protests on their phones).
This does two things: 1) it proves that the regime upholds the constitution; and, 2) it allows the protests to be documented properly, and not only on phones, or through the biased spectrum of state media.
Pak,
You don’t confirm legitimacy through street rallies. This happens only through the ballot box, a process you have already rejected. The GM is tainted with acts of sedition and all that there is left to do is to isolate and let it wither away.
The Reform movement, on the other hand, is a vibrant political coalition which has every right to convene and to have its voice known. Indeed, reformists parties and newspapers are doing this in Iran right now.
Even if every single person in Tehran and Shemiran supported Mousavi, which is not the case anyway,there are 364 other districts across Iran whose populations have the right to choose the leadership as they represent the majority.
For a democracy to work, the majority should respect the rights of the minority but also the minority should respect the will of the majority.
Pak says: February 18, 2011 at 9:04 pm
Regarding your response to kooshy:
I completely disagree.
Iran should not try to prove anything to anyone.
Kooshy,
If you can provide any evidence showing that the letter is not authentic then I will take the matter up wit the Press Complaints Commission in the UK. I have won several cases against the Times of London on the subject of Iran reporting.
Reza
Dear Richard,
I think you have spent too long in a dark, secluded room, because your manners are non-existent.
Dear kooshy,
There is a very, very simple solution to your dilemma: allow peaceful protests, and allow foreign media to cover the protests. In one day, you could refute all the narratives being told outside of Iran, as well as inside Iran, and you could also confirm the legitimacy of the regime.
Simples.
Kooshy: That wouldn’t surprise me. There is no limit to the intellectual dishonest of people like Lucas.
RSH
The point of letter is not if the letter is fake or not or even if such a latter exist or not, that is not the point , the point is, if even one person out the 2 that will show up to Sunday demonstrations gets a nose bleed, Scott Lucas of the world are going to rush to media with close-up YouTube video shots (since they don’t have the numbers to support a big crowd) claiming that IRGC sent the letter as a bate to bring large crowds so they could round them all up and massacre them.
Is just like the game they started with Bahrain, in the face of the rest of Arab world that is a sensitive place to play Shieh/ Suni game and point to Arab’s that shieh’s are uprising against Sunni governments, will see how plays his cards right, though one to call. Will need to Waite and see how western media+ Aljazeera are going to spin it. It think the Bahrain is to rough up Iran’s glow a bit in the Arab world and in a way that Iran will have no choice but to take the bait.
James Canning @ 7:25 re Ron Lauder:
“The British and other European governments would be well-advised to put more real effort into improving the situation on the ground instead of just taking the backseat and leaving Israel, the only democracy in the region, alone.
A very interesting Tehran Times Persian Press Review.
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=236033
HAMSHAHRI: Qalibaf says leaders of sedition have neither faith nor wisdom
TEHRAN–E EMROOZ: Calls rise for trial of sedition leaders in funeral procession for Saane Zhaleh
HEMAYAT: Leader says pressures and propagandas are aimed to stop the progress of the Iranian nation
HEMAYAT: 30 billion dollars allocated for youth employment
HEMAYAT: Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah says Israel is the heart of the American project in the region
TAFAHOM: Building Iran is a revolutionary and ideal move, president says in a gathering of Bushehris
TAFAHOM: Oil prices increase
KAYHAN: Bahraini people say we stay in streets until regime falls
SHARQ: Prosecutor general says some arrested on February 14 rallies are freed
Leading articles
KAYHAN Turkish President Abdullah Gul describes Iran and Turkey as two economically and politically powerful countries in the region. On trade exchanges, Gul says why the trade ties between Iran and Turkey should not be as diverse and as large as the one between Germany and France. About popular uprisings in Arab countries, the Turkish president maintains governments which do not care about the demands of their people, especially the youth, will naturally face problems and what is happening in the region is not “surprising”. Gul also called the Palestinian issue a problem of the Arab and Muslim world.
HAMSHAHRI in a commentary says in the uprising by Qomi citizens in 1978, which left several persons dead and many more wounded, triggered a great wave of protest against the Shah regime across the country. Among the cities which rose up against the killings of people in Qom was Tabriz, a city in which the people for the first time chanted the slogan of “Death to Shah.” Hussein Alaei – a war commander during Iraq’s war against Iran in the 1980s – was active in organizing the uprising against Shah in Tabriz on Feb. 18, 1978. He says Ayatollah Qazi Tabatabei issued a statement inviting the people of Tabriz to attend the Mirza Yousef Agha Mosque to mark the 40th day of the martyrdom of theology students and ordinary people in Qom, and it was on that day that for the firs time the people of Tabriz chanted “Death to Shah”. Alaei who was very active at that time went on to say: “Mohammad Tajali, a student who criticized local police chief for insulting the people, was martyred with a gunshot by the local police chief and then the people carried his corpse and chanted slogans “Death to Shah”, “Long Live Khomeini” and “Ya Hussein.” People in their route attacked liquor shops, banks belonging to Bahaiis and centers affiliated to the Shah regime.” It should be reminded that Fereydoun Hoveyda in his book entitled “The Fall Of The Shah” also confirmed that the people of Tabriz chanted the slogan of “Death to Shah” for the first time.
MARDOMSALARI in an editorial entitled “Reforms Is Alive” says even though the statesmen express negative outlook toward political parties and claim there is no need of parties in the country and some reformists have kept silence, the Mardomsalari Party like previous years would convene its annual congress on Thursday to show that reformism is still alive. Some who are against reformism say that the political situation prevailing in the country has left no room for party activities. Even some principlists who believe in party system think that the era of reformism is over and say the time has come that principlists start a new era of political and election rivalries among themselves. But convening the 9th congress of the Mardomsalari Party with the slogan of “Safeguarding the Constitution with Popular Reforms” in the current complicated situation demonstrates that despite some limitations created for reformist parties, there is still opportunity for political activities by reformists.
The Telegraph gets fooled by forged ‘IRGC letter’
By Mark Pyruz
Con Coughlin of The Telegraph reports:
“Senior officers in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have written a letter to their commanding officer demanding assurances that they will not be required to open fire on anti-government demonstrators.
Western diplomats, who have also seen the letter and confirm its authenticity, say it has now been passed to Mr Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s Supreme Ruler, although no official response has been forthcoming.”
A lot of folks are under the mistaken impression the Revolutionary Guards are the force involved in crowd control operations following the post-2009 election unrest in Iran. They’re not.
NAJA, Iran’s national law enforcement and its branches, is the primary agency involved in these efforts, and not the IRGC. The IRGC has not been engaged in such operations. Furthermore, NAJA is currently under orders to employ less lethal force in its antiriot operations.
So obviously the letter is a not-so-clever forgery.
(Anyone in possession of a copy of this letter is encouraged to send it to Uskowi on Iran. We could use a laugh)
Posted by Mark Pyruz at 6:17 PM
Nabil Abu Rdainah, a close aide to Abbas, is quoted in the Daily Telegraph as saying the US veto “encourages Israel to continue illegal settlements”. Absolutely correct. Rather pathetic to expect American stupidity to show itself in these situations, time and time again. And why? Rich Jewish Americans who are able to manipulate the silly politicians.
More on how black ops are done by private security firms for the government.
Relevance here? One of the ops designs included a cartoon of Ahmadinejad pulling the strings of a “puppet Ayatolla Khamenei”.
Black ops: how HBGary wrote backdoors for the government
:http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/02/black-ops-how-hbgary-wrote-backdoors-and-rootkits-for-the-government.ars
Quotes
According to Hoglund, the recipes came with a side dish, a specially crafted piece of malware meant to infect Al-Qaeda computers. Is the US government in the position of deploying the hacker’s darkest tools—rootkits, computer viruses, trojan horses, and the like? Of course it is, and Hoglund was well-positioned to know just how common the practice had become. Indeed, he and his company helped to develop these electronic weapons.
Why would the unnamed client for Task B—which a later e-mail makes clear was for a government agency—want such a tool? Imagine you want access to the computer network used in a foreign government ministry, or in a nuclear lab. Such a facility can be tough to crack over the Internet; indeed, the most secure facilities would have no such external access. And getting an agent inside the facility to work mischief is very risky—if it’s even possible at all.
But say a scientist from the facility uses a memory stick to carry data home at night, and that he plugs the memory stick into his laptop on occasion. You can now get a piece of custom spyware into the facility by putting a copy on the memory stick—if you can first get access to the laptop. So you tail the scientist and follow him from his home one day to a local coffee shop. He steps away to order another drink, to go to the bathroom, or to talk on his cell phone, and the tail walks past his table and sticks an all-but-undetectable bit of hardware in his laptop’s ExpressCard slot. Suddenly, you have a vector that points all the way from a local coffee shop to the interior of a secure government facility.
In mid-2010, HBGary Federal put together a PSYOP (psychological operations) proposal for SOCOM, which had issued a general call for new tools and techniques. In the document, the new HBGary Federal team talked up their past experience as creators of “multiple products briefed to POTUS [President of the United States], the NSC [National Security Council], and Congressional Intelligence committees, as well as senior intelligence and military leaders.”
The document focused on cartoons and the Second Life virtual world. “HBGary personnel have experience creating political cartoons that leverage current events to seize the target audience’s attention and propagate the desired messages and themes,” said the document, noting that security-cleared cartoonists and 3D modelers had already been lined up to do the work if the government wanted some help.
The cartooning process “starts with gathering customer requirements such as the target audience, high level messages and themes, intended publication mediums… Through brainstorming sessions, we develop concept ideas. Approved concepts are rough sketched in pencil. Approved sketches are developed into a detailed, color end product that is suitable for publishing in a variety of mediums.”
A sample cartoon, of Iranian President Ahmadinejad manipulating a puppet Ayatollah, was helpfully included.
In June 2010, the government was expressing real interest in social networks. The Air Force issued a public request for “persona management software,” which might sound boring until you realize that the government essentially wanted the ability to have one agent run multiple social media accounts at once.
It wanted 50 software licenses, each of which could support 10 personas, “replete with background, history, supporting details, and cyber presences that are technically, culturally and geographically consistent.”
The software would allow these 50 cyberwarriors to peer at their monitors all day and manipulate these 10 accounts easily, all “without fear of being discovered by sophisticated adversaries.” The personas would appear to come from all over the world, the better to infiltrate jihadist websites and social networks, or perhaps to show up on Facebook groups and influence public opinion in pro-US directions.
End Quotes
Ah, now we know who Pak and Lucas are! Fake personas generated by some US government software! :-)
Lucas: “You know nothing about everything: find one instance where I have supported regime change.”
You are truly a master of lying.
You come in here very damn day, providing all sorts of alleged “facts” about how the Iran government is so bad, then sit here and proclaim that only Iranians should have the right to alter their government.
Are you Iranian? If you believe only Iranians should be the ones to deal with their government, then why are you in here every day supporting the Green Movement?
This is disingenuous in the extreme. You OBVIOUSLY support regime change in Iran – whether by inside or outside forces is irrelevant. Otherwise you wouldn’t be criticizing the Iran government. You can’t criticize the government in the manner you do without simultaneously implicitly stating that the government is illegitimate, which by definition means you support removing said government, which by definition is regime change.
Q. Bloody E. D.
This is so obvious a five year old can understand it. Quoting Marx (Groucho): “Run out and find me a five year old child. Lucas can’t understand this.”
If you don’t support regime change in Iran – then GO THE HELL AWAY.
And if you do – GO AWAY. We here don’t care. This is not what the site is about.
Anne,
Thanks for the link. Ronald Lauder is of course dead wrong to attack William Hague. And Lauder’s idiotic call for Israel to become a member of Nato is just astonishing to hear repeated yet again! What a great way to destroy the alliance!
Rich Jews in America are undermining the national security of the American people. Israel needs to be told: GET OUT OF THE WEST BANK. AND THE GOLAN HEIGHTS.
‘Freedom of Speech’: US vs Iran
Ray McGovern 71, former CIA analyst for 27 years – staged a ‘silent protest’ during the Israel-Firster Hillary Clinton’s talk on the importance of freedom of speech in the internet age at George Washington University on February 15, 2011. Ray, who is an American war veteran, was left ‘bruised and bloodied’ after being violently dragged out of the hall while hypocrite Zionist Hillary Clinton was lecturing governments in the Middle East, especially the Islamic Republic, on how people should be allowed to protest in peace without fear of threat or violence. She also condemned governments who arrest protesters and do not allow free expression.
Roy McGovern was put in two sets of handcuffs and taken to the police station where he remained in the cell for three and a half hours. He was charged with disorderly conduct.
Roy McGovern was interviewed by Iranian Press TV (watch video below).
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2011/02/19/freedom-of-speech-us-vs-iran/
“my country put me in one for 26 hours, for the crime of walking on a public street within 2000 feet of where George Bush was. I was punched, handcuffed, pushed, chained by the ankles to a chair, strip searched, humiliated and verbally abused by good ole American democracy-loving automatic weapon wielding flack jacketed policeman”
Fio,
The best line I’ve ever heard re the police in the US was on the old Arseno Hall show after the LA riots, when an audience member said: “The poh-leees, them are the pay gang.” That really drove it home for me.
So Scott,
When ordinary folks come out to demonstrate their majority views, they are part of “the regime”?
BTW: I checked out one of the videos on that linked page you provided. The title claims the police are “shooting” demonstrators. From the sounds produced and the oversized bag held by the passing policemen, it’s evident the discharge is likely from a smoke or teargas discharger and not a lethal force firearm.
James: Read the angry response by the world jewish congress: http://www.worldjewishcongress.org/en/news/9948
those sickos arent satisfied until the greater israel have been established.
Anne,
Yes, shame on Obama and his foolish encouragement of yet more violations of international law by Israel.
Obama needs to tell Israel: You are not going to change borders by building illegal houses and flats for illegal Jewish colonists in the West Bank. Full stop. But we both know Obama is the prisoner of the Israel lobby.
kooshy,
Sadly, the foolish veto of the UN resolution was entirely expected. Obama has to contend with the numerous stooges of the Israel lobby in his own party.
William Hague told the Times (London) Feb. 9th that Obama administration needs to get peace process back on track and push an agreement based on 1967 borders.
More good news for further international isolation of US
The U.S. today vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution that would have condemned Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem as “illegal” and ordered all construction operations there to stop.
The U.S. was the sole no vote on the 15-member Security Council, which had broadly supported the Palestinian-sponsored resolution. The Obama administration’s veto will likely deepen anger towards the U.S., both among leaders of the Palestinian Authority and across the Arab world.
U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice said after the vote that the U.S. position should not be seen as a support for Israel’s settlement program. “We reject in the strongest terms the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlement activity,” she said.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-blocks-resolution-calling-israeli-settlements-illegal/story?id=12952628
Scott: Did you miss the demonstrations last friday all over Iran, ShiaTv had some nice shots? You are getting desperate, what keeps you going? Your arguments get debunked all the time.
Reza,
“Maybe our dear friend, Dr. Lucas, would like to do his notorious head counting.”
I don’t need to — EuroNews did it for both of us, at least for Tehran.
And outside Tehran?
S.
RSH,
You know nothing about everything: find one instance where I have supported regime change. If you can’t go outside your comfort zone, stick with comments on RFI and see where I have a position against regime change on several occasion.
S.
Eric/Kooshy,
1st Rule Again: It helps to read before preaching. Go to the comments on EA’s LiveBlog re the Daily Telegraph on the IRGC.
http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2011/2/18/the-latest-from-iran-18-february-another-regime-show.html
S.
Reza,
The Irish Times article is subscription-only so I can’t tell if journalist did not pick up correctly what Hejazi said or if he did indeed place the basiji as a rooftop sniper. His account to the BBC, however, is very clear in that he thought at first that it was sniper — a natural assumption in the moment — but then noticed the people gathering around a Basij gunman.
A doctor (and a translator who has tried to bring great literature to Iran’s people) who tried to save a life on the day and then, in spite of threat of arrest, told a story of what he had seen — I prefer my definition of “integrity” in this case.
S.
US have once again veto a UN resolution condemning israeli settlements, my question is. Why would Hamas, Hizbollah, Iran..well any other nation need to follow international law or UN resolutions when israel doesnt have to do so? obama, you should give back your noble prize. Shame on you obama.
Liz,
I told you where our funding comes from. Now maybe RFI can explain why it gets funding from an organisation considered an agent of regime change by the Iranian Government. :-)
S.
Rehmat says: February 18, 2011 at 4:32 pm
Thank you for your contribution.
“Theocracy” is a word devoid of analytical content.
If you mean by “Opposition” those who gathered around Mr. Khatami, you are probably in-correct.
I think that group is left behind since they lost to Mr. Ahmadinejad.
kooshy says: February 18, 2011 at 4:48 pm
I do not think that US strategic leaders are desparate.
I think they still expect an implosion similar to the Soviet Union.
Persoanlly, I beleive the application of their Grand Strategy has so far been successful in case of Yugoslavia and in case of Iraq.
I think that the costs brone by the US-EU Axis in Iraq (and in Afghanistan) is something that did not expect.
So in case of Iran, Pakistan, South Africa, Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria and other candidates for regime change per their Grand Startegy, the preferred method is now to wait for implosion or to create dissention.
The information war will have to be pursued – to the bitter end – per the Grand Strategy.
I personally find that Grand Strategy impracticable.
The planet is 2/3 water and US cannot hope to be the hegemon (no state can).
EU cannot help US in actual fighting, there is no manpower coming out of EU. She would be funding US.
Russians and Chinese will sabotage it.
There is no positive vision in this Grand Strategy for very many other states. Yes India and Vietnam and Japan and South Korea, all worried about China to a certain extent, might wish to be allied to US.
But the US Grand Strategy is unprofitable for very many other states, just look at Turkey.
People and countries, it seems to me, must learn by making imistakes.
The Telegraph is the orgin of the story by the Atlantic’s daily dish that I linked earlier
http://andrewsullivan dot theatlantic dot com/the_daily_dish/2011/02/sunday-in-iran.html
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire
By Con Coughlin 10:50PM GMT 17 Feb 2011
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8331625/Irans-Revolutionary-Guard-pledges-to-hold-fire.html
And this is the first comment left for this story
“Dear Coughlin
“I cannot force myself to believe you have came across these important information and validated them by some reliable source. at least you could have posted a picture of the letter.
I believe you have been misled by someone to publish his or her wishes instead of true information.
anyway I hope your article will end up inspiring more people to participate in the riots but if the IRG reacts with heavy violence you might end up with some blood on your hands”
Regards,
Roham
Euronews report on today’s anti-opposition demos after Friday prayers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGDUip3cWCg&feature=player_embedded
Maybe our dear friend, Dr. Lucas, would like to do his notorious head counting.
Fyi
“Nothing will happen on the coming Sunday that could effect the Iranian state.”
Fyi – it is not that which is worrisome to me, what really is worrying me, is the state of desperation that is getting in to rank of the American establishment and it’s supposed checks and balances.
Watching the acts of, and reading thoughts of this despicable crowd, frankly I came to remember the old great song of John Denver “I feel sorry for my self “can you guess why?
Fiorangela,
Re CSM article you linked, I don’t think the US needs such a huge naval presence in the Persian Gulf “to keep Iran’s military in check”. I think this is part of the justification used to help sell the gargantuan US “defence” budget to the American people.
Fiorangela: “my country put me in one for 26 hours, for the crime of walking on a public street within 2000 feet of where George Bush was. I was punched, handcuffed, pushed, chained by the ankles to a chair, strip searched, humiliated and verbally abused by good ole American democracy-loving automatic weapon wielding flack jacketed policeman who were apparently threatened by a 65 year old woman in a silk sweater.”
Welcome to the club! I had eight years of that. Of course, in my case my offense was rather more significant than being within 2000 feet of Bush. Still, this is how law enforcement works pretty much everywhere in the world.
As a wise man once said, “The police are only an army of occupation for the poor.”
fyi – Nyeth.
Islamic opposition (Reformers) do have chances to come in power and they had been in power before. However, subverted US government has no chance to bring a pro-Israeli government in Tehran. On the other hand there are more chances that the Zionist regime will soon be history – because Iran is a theocracy while Israel is fascism.
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2009/12/19/is-zionist-regime-doomed/
Lucas: “personally, I don’t support regime change and have never supported it in the case of Iran.”
Now we KNOW you’re a liar.
kooshy says: February 18, 2011 at 3:58 pm
Nothing will happen on the coming Sunday that could effect the Iranian state.
Iran is not in a revolutionary or pre-revolutionary situation.
All of these are storms in a tea-cup.
The “Opposition”, who ever they are, have not articulated a program beyond adjustments to the current dispensation. That is, all they ask is for the state to remove its most egregious abuses in infringing on Iranians’ constitutional rights.
The other “Oppositionists” that have gone beyond these modest demands, have, at the moment and for the foreseeable future, no chance of success.
An un-Islamic or anti-Islamic “Opposition” has no chance whatsoever in Iran.
Scott,
Please look at Kooshy’s post of 3:58 PM.
Isn’t that exactly the sort of information you typically report on EA? Lest you have any doubt it’s fabricated, read the “quote” from the RG commander at the end, and then think about it for a few extra seconds.
I’ll be surprised not to see a mention of this letter on your site, Scott.
Here is another despicable like Professor Lucas, hoping for blood in Tehran streets, considering the recent events, sounds that the pro establishment American media conductors like Scott are loosing it.
Sunday, Bloody Sunday In Iran?
18 Feb 2011 03:40 pm
It could be bloody or it could be pivotal, or both. But this story hasn’t got enough attention and if true, is a very big deal:
Senior officers in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have written a letter to their commanding officer demanding assurances that they will not be required to open fire on anti-government demonstrators… Following the recent violence that occurred during anti-government protests in Egypt, the officers argue that it is against the principles of Shi’ite Islamic law to use violence against their own people.
In a suggestion of a major split within the Islamic Republic’s ruling hierarchy over its handling of anti-government protests, the letter has been circulated widely throughout the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards, the body responsible for defending religious system. The letter, a copy of which has been seen by the Daily Telegraph, is addressed to Major Gen Mohammad Ali Jafari, the Guards’ commanding officer. It calls on Major Gen Jafari to issue guidance to both the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij paramilitary militia to use restraint when handling anti-government protests.
The letter asks for the basij to leave their truncheons at home this coming Sunday, when a major Green protest is planned. It’s signed by RG commanders in Tehran, Qom, Isfahan and Tabriz. Today, however, the streets of Tehran have been filled with tens of thousands of regime loyalists calling for Mousavi and Karroubi to be hanged. A sign of regime strength or nervousness? This quote from the IRG commanders’ letter staggers me:
“We promise our people that we will not shoot nor beat our brothers who are seeking to express legitimate protest against the policies and conduct of their leader.”
Know hope.
link to the Christian Science Monitor article that Liz posted earlier –
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0218/Middle-East-could-pivot-on-Bahrain-protests
Fiorangela says: February 18, 2011 at 3:34 pm
Thank you for the long quoatation.
It clearly demonstrates that resentment towards the United States is not just confined to Islamic Iran. And this from a state that is supposed to be threatened by the rise of China.
Indubitably, there has been a historical process at work to evict and to otherwise eliminate the political and military power of non-Muslims from the world of Islam – 160 years, at least.
We are now witnessing the Arab portion of Muslim world continuing this process.
The extension of this historical process to Russia, China and to India is still a task for the future.
I would never ever, under any circumstance, enter a religious conflict with Judaism, Hinduism, or Christianity. There will be no winners.
Americans and Europeans, as well as Israelis, would be well advised to emulate the Bishop of Rome in dealing with the world of Islam.
There is no margin for them in fighting Islam.
None.
thanks for the heads up to the CSM editorial, Liz.
a commenter suggested that the 5th Fleet move to the Mediterranean to keep Israel in check.
Scott Lucas,
Hopefully your filthy regime will not be able to keep the Bahraini murderers in power.
fyi says: February 18, 2011 at 2:36 pm
Per the US Grand Strategy, Islamic Iran has to be destroyed.
I’d adjust that a bit:
Per the US Grand Strategy, Islam
ic Iranhas to be destroyed.from, “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man,” John Perkins
CIVILIZATION ON TRIAL
A dalang is an Indonesian puppet master.
While working in Bandung, Indonesia, as a contractor for the World Bank, John Perkins, author of “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man,” was taken to a dalang performance by some of his Indonesian hosts.
Perkins writes:
”It was a remarkable performance, combining traditional legends with current events. . . .
After completing a classic selection from the ancient texts of the Ramayana, the dalang produced a puppet of Richard Nixon, complete with distinctive long nose and sagging jowls. The U.S. president was dressed like Uncle Sam . . .[and] was accompanied by another puppet, which wore a three-piece pin-striped suit. The second puppet carried in one hand a bucket decorated with dollar signs. He used his free hand to wave an American flag over Nixon’s head in the manner of a slave fanning a master.
A map of the Middle and Far East appeared behind the two, the various countries hanging from hooks in their respective positions. Nixon immediately approached the map, lifted Vietnam off its hook and thrust it in his mouth. He shouted . . .”Bitter! Rubbish! We don’t need any more of this!” Then he tossed it into the bucket and proceeded to do the same with other countries.
I was surprised, however, to see that his next selection did not include the domino nations of Southeast Asia. Rather, they were all Middle Eastern countries – Palestine, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Iran. After that, he turned to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Each time, the Nixon doll screamed out some epithet before dropping the country into his bucket, and in every instance, his vituperative words were anti-Islamic: “Muslim dogs,” “Mohammed’s monsters,” and “Islamic devils.”
[The play continued, the crowd laughing and angry by turns.]
Then Nixon said something that made my scalp tingle.
“Give this one to the World Bank. See what it can do to make some money off Indonesia.” He lifted Indonesia from the map and moved to drop it into the bucket, but just at that moment another puppet leaped out of the shadows. The puppet represented an Indonesian man, dressed in batik shirt and khaki slacks, and he wore a sign with his name clearly printed on it . . .[the name of a popular Bandung politician].
This puppet literally flew between Nixon and Bucket Man and held up his hand.
“Stop!” he shouted. “Indonesia is sovereign.”
The crowd burst into applause.
Then Bucket Man lifted his flag and thrust it like a spear into the Indonesian, who staggered and died a most dramatic death. The audience members booed, hooted, screamed, and shook their fists. Nixon and Bucket Man stood there, looking out at us. They bowed and left the stage.
“I think I should go, I said [to my host].
He placed a hand protectively around my shoulder. “It’s okay,” he said. “They have nothing against you personally.” . . .
“Indonesians are very conscious of politics,” [others in the group said]. “Don’t Americans go to shows like this?”
A beautiful woman, and English major at the university, said to me, “But you do work for the World Bank, don’t you?”
I told her that my current assignment was for the Asian Development Bank and the United States Agency for International Development.
“Aren’t they really all the same? . . .Doesn’t your government look at Indonesia and other countries as though we are just a bunch of . . .grapes . . .grapes you can pick and choose? Keep England. Eat China. And throw away Indonesia.”
“After you’ve taken all our oil,” another woman added.
I tried to defend myself but was not at all up to the task. . . .[so] I tried to refocus the conversation. I asked them why they thought the dalang had singled out Muslim countries, except for Vietnam.
The beautiful English major laughed at this. “Because that’s the plan. . . .Vietnam is just a holding action, . . .a stepping stone. . . .The real target is the Muslim world.”
I couldn’t let this go unanswered. “Surely . . .you can’t believe that the United States is anti-Islamic.”
“Oh no?” she asked. “Since when? You need to read one of your own historians – Toynbee. Back in the fifties he predicted that the real war in the next century would not be between Communists and capitalists, but between Christians and Muslims. . . .Read Civilization on Trial and The World and the West.
“But why should there be such animosity between Muslims and Christians?” I asked.
“Looks were exchanged around the table. They appeared to find it hard to believe that I could ask such a foolish question.
“Because,” she said slowly, as though addressing someone slow-witted or hard of hearing, “the West – especially its leader, the U.S. – is determined to take control of all the world, to become the greatest empire in history. It has already gotten very close to succeeding. The Soviet Union currently stands in its way, but the Soviet Union will not endure. Toynbee could see that. They have no religion, no faith, no substance behind their ideology. History demonstrates that faith – soul, a belief in higher powers—is essential. We Muslims have it. We have it more than anyone else in the world, even more than the Christians. So we wait. We grow strong.”
“We will take our time,” one of the men in the group chimed in, “and then like a snake we will strike.”
What a horrible thought! I could barely contain myself. “What can we do to change this?”
The English major looked me directly in the eyes. “Stop being so greedy,” she said, “and so selfish. Realize that there is more to the world than your big houses and fancy stores. People are starving and you worry about oil for your cars. Babies are dying of thirst and you search the fashion magazines for the latest styles. . . . You shut your ears to the voices of those who try to tell you these things. You label them radicals . . .There’s not much time left. If you don’t change, you’re doomed.”
Has anyone seen this?
Pretty sick. They CSM telling the American government to preserve the dictator, when it’s clear that the strong majority want the murderer and his regime to go. It shows the true nature of the western media.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0218/Middle-East-could-pivot-on-Bahrain-protests
Reza: Saudia is the toughest, we have to remember also that saudi and the US have a deal which basically says that “us get oil > us protect saudi house from threats”.
Either way, the us/israeli obsession with Iran is sickening, I guess US/israel is getting desperate that their hegemony is about to fall. Also people need to realize that the US dont SUPPORT the people in these countries, they SUPPORT their OWN INTEREST which primary is the flow of oil and the continued defender of the occupation and apartheid state of Israel.
Anne,
How long before Saudi Arabia’s Shiites – mostly located in the oil-rich eastern provinces – rise up against the House of Saud?
I do think that the Sultan of Oman’s position is still strong – but he recently canceled a trip to India because of the unrest in the region.
Now, is a great time to book a holiday to Sharm-el-Sheikh or Dubai. They are giving rooms away.
Protest set against the President of Djibouti where the U.S has an intelligence-gathering base.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12510799
The American Empire in the Arab World is under real pressure.
Yemen
Jordan
Lybia
Morocco
Alger
Saudiarabia
Bahrain
…
Where is the US support for the demonstrators? US politicans are the scum of the eart, the most horrific hypocrites on this planet. Also, anticipate that the US would veto a UN resolution today regarding israeli settlements. US/israel is getting desperate!
Four more people have been murdered in Bahrain by the US backed regime. Press TV’s coverage is quite good.
http://www.jahannews.com/vdca60n6m49nmy1.k5k4.html
This is definitely a US job.
The attacks are being described in detail by many Iranian websites. The timing shows there is no doubt that the US is behind this.
Dear Liz,
Iranian websites are being attacked by Anonymous (the same people who took down Mastercard, Paypal, and Amazon after the wikileaks fiasco).
Here is their youtube message, although you will not be able to see it, because the Iranian government does its own attacking too:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmZ6OMLR7kI
Fiorangela says: February 18, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Per the US Grand Strategy, Islamic Iran has to be destroyed.
I would not call that policy counter-productive.
There is no productivity to be gained.
In regards to the private enterprise in Iran, I think the government, with its pesudo-socialist ideas prior to Mr. Ahmadinejad’s election, had made it very difficult for un-connected (Not-With-Us) crowd to get access to capital.
If, 5 young engineering graduates tried to setup a company and do something, there was no way for them to gain access to the initial capital needed to get things started.
At the same time, well-connected (With-Us) people who get million-dollar loans below global capital costs to do with it as they wished. And that loan, contrary to the situation under the South Korean Military Dictatorship, would not go into productive use. At the best, the person who had received the loan would buy a factory, run it into ground, declare bankruptcy, and go on with his life.
It was Mr. Ahmadinejad’s government that directed the Iranian Banking systems to make available “strat-up” loans. He was also the one that made available marriage loans so young people could get married and enjoy sexual union (among other things).
His government also tried to put an end to the corrupt loans – with mixed success.
These problems are not caused by the US-EU Axis, it is caused by the willingness of so many Iranians to try to live in a fantasy world.
I thank the Hidden Imam for enabling US-EU Axis target Iran and slap Iranians into wakefullness.
Where is Egypt going?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/364347;_ylt=Att63oYwDzuuqzXWEwQ8j9wDW7oF;_ylu=X3oDMTJhaXJkczluBGFzc2V0A2NzbS8yMDExMDIxOC8zNjQzNDcEY3BvcwMzBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDaXNsYW1pY3ByZWFj
Persian Gulf says: February 18, 2011 at 2:09 pm
Thank you for reminding me of Mr. Karroubi’s role in the campaign against media; I had forgotten that. Yes, he was stooge of Mr. Khamenei.
But at least he cancelled his trip to Saudi Arabia and came back to Tehran, calling that stupid verdict “dis-honorable”.
Mr. Mousavi did not do anything.
He was the Prime Minsitewr when the election law was changed and Muslim Pharisee became the rulers of Iran.
But, overall, you are right.
I do not know why anyone would put any trust in them.
The Bahraini regime can only survive through slaughter.
Liz says:
February 18, 2011 at 2:13 pm
Liz , what kind of assaults to you mean ?
Last week I was bombarded by e-mail invitations for 25 Bahman on my business e-mail , although I think I have the sate of the art protection on my business e-mail account . It was very weird , almost 15 e-amil withing 6 hours ( last Sunday ) , the usual green crap.
Pak,
Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
I think the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman monarchies can survive and thrive, but clearly Bahrain has to make better economic arrangements for the Shia community.
fyi, your response to Arnold Evans at 1:43 was informative and useful. Although as a Westerner/American it is not my place to advocate for or against reforms to Iranian society, from having spoken with smart young Iranian women in Tehran as well as humble rug weavers in Mashad and Keng, I think the reforms you suggest would be well received by both. Certainly the disbanding of morals police would be welcome, and a number of business people, from Persian rug merchants who had to navigate several layers of connections just to process a credit transaction (Stuart Levey’s strictures on banking means that Americans can’t use credit cards in Iran — not easily, that is: transactions are processed through “my brother-in-law’s shop in Dubai” or a connection in Bahrain. Each layer carries a fee, as does each time currency is exchanged. The markup to a tourist can amount to 25%. Thanks, Stu baby.) to entrepreneurial Armenians who are just bustin’ for access to capital/credit so they can do what they do best. I’m sure that many people would welcome privatization of more businesses in Iran.
Which is exactly why the US approach to Iran is counterproductive. Iran knows that US and neoliberal or predatory capitalists are eager to subvert Iran’s government and social institutions and lasso its economy and financial system. When a system is threatened, it defends against the threat by becoming even more conservative and protective of its core systems. Iran CAN’T open the doors to private capital and private enterprise because predatory capitalists are lurking at the threshold like hungry dogs at a butchershop. Iran CAN’T let down their guard over the “virtue” of Iranian society because they’ve seen the devastation American pop culture has wreaked on the American family and young people — the US education system is in shambles in part because families are in shambles.
If the US and Israel would mind their own businesses, get their own houses in order, and let Iran be Iran, my bet is that Iran would evolve to the country you would like to see, fyi.
For over a week the US has been carrying out major assaults on Iranian news websites. Freedom of speech? Freedom of information?
fyi says:
February 18, 2011 at 11:44 am
I don’t know how you have became disillusioned regarding Karroubi. This is the same person who removed the legislation for freedom of media from the Majles (as per the mandate of Mr.Khamenei); essentially killed a great reform during his tenure as the head of the Majles. I hope you know, in a single day more than 20 newspapers were closed down. Newspapers that were widely read by Iranians. As if, we were not entitled to read what we wanted. Back then, he was so thrilled with power, and showed as a pawn of Khamenei.
we have to really explore why he did defend Aghajari. btw, at the time of Aghajari’s episode, I was in Tehran. most people knew it’s a political trick. it was crystal clear that the verdict, issued by a local judge, will be dismissed in Tehran by higher authority. probably that was the reason Karroubi ,the opportunist, jumped in.
Scott,
I am not smearing Hejazi. But I am questioning his integrity.
This is what he told the Irish Times on the 20th of June:
“A young woman who was standing with her father watching the protests was shot by a basij member hiding on the rooftop of a civilian house. He had clear shot
at the girl and could not miss her.However, he aimed straight at her heart. I am a doctor, so I rushed to try to save her. But the impact of the gunshot was so fierce that the bullet had blasted inside the victim’s chest, and she died in less
than two minutes.”
This is an account of a cold-blooded and very much targeted assassination.
How Hejazi knew the rooftop sniper was a basiji is not explained.
He then changed the story to that of a man on a motorcycle shooting from the road adjoining the side street where Neda was killed. Both statements cannot possibly be true.
Arnold Evans says: February 18, 2011 at 12:20 pm
If you asked me how many Iranians are there for whom having a son or daughter does not make a difference, that do not discriminate in their treatment of their children on basis of their sex, did not exclude the possibility of their daughters or sons choosing their own spouse, and in general had a relaxed attitude towards religion, I would put that number no more than 10% of the Iranian population. It is this same group whose conduct in dealing with members of the opposite sex is based on “orf” and not what the Mullahs claim Islam says.
In some areas, such as Tehran, the density of such people is much higher than at other places, say Tabriz. [In Tabriz, very many young women feel so oppressed by their families that they marry the first person whose family knocks at their parents' door in order to be free of that oppression. Needless to say, this only creates marital disasters further down the road; divorce, unhappiness, infidelity, etc. And Tabriz is still more premissive than Ardebil or Khoi.]
That is why I set the number approximately at 7 million.
These 7 million are not ncessarily staunch secularists or irrelgious; their religiosity is not that of the lower middle classes of Iran and does not partake of what, in Persian, is called “Akhund-Bazi” – Games Mullahs Play.
This group has been very much marginalized in the Islamic Republic politically; the change in the election law by teh Second Majlis was squarely aimed at this class; “Outward conformance to Islam” becoming a requisite for a member of Majlis.
It is the wives, the sons, and the daughters of this group that are primary targets of the Moral Police harassment. It is their houses and villas (in Northern Tehran) that is often raided for having mixed company etc. by the members of the police and others who belong to the lower classes.
It is almost like a form of class warfare.
In regards to the what could be done to ameliorate the situation, it is quite clar to me that the path forward must include the political re-integration of this group into the electoral process in Iran. Their candidates, must be enabled to run and be elected. No more “Guardian Council” dirty tricks. This, the Islamic Establi9shment can do without incurring political costs and reaction from others in the society.
The disbanding of the Moral Police is the admission, by the leaders of the Islamic republic of Iran, that one of the political aims of “Islamicizing” Iran is un-reachable.
Likewise, letting the Experimental Law on Islamic Punishments expire (die its natural death), will be helpful. But that is also an admission, at least by the more religious of the Islamic Republic’s leaders, that the Islamicizing legal punishments also has been a failure (at least as envisioned by that Experimental Law.)
I do not think that the organization of the political forces in Iran, at the moment, will tolerate any of these reform items. Certainly the last 2 will be viewed by many that the Islamic Republic is no longer Islamic (I do not share that view).
Just last week, there was yet another attempt at making universities in Iran segrgated. And more complains about how very many people just ignore all these so-called “Islamic Mores” and mix freely with members of the opposite sex.
Official Iran is not yet ready to admit its mistake of going against “orf” in 1980.
Ideally, of course, one would like to see these “reforms” include also Compensation & Rehabilitation Inquests that could review all the confiscations, jailings, and executions carried out in Iran since 1979 and in case of mistakes, to pay compensations to the victims or their families.
Lastly, I agree with Persian Gulf that all sectors of that society will be altered for the better if there is to be more private enterprise, a larger non-state economy, and more economic competition; thus disabusing very many from their foolish notions.
Rehmat,
The US, Britain, France, Germany etc do not want renewed civil war in Lebanon. The misperception of what Hezbollah is, and what Hezbollah is trying to accomplish, that obtains in “the West”, is largely a problem created by the Israel lobby. As you know.
Time is working against the Israeli Zionist-expansionist scheme.
pak, that is a horrible video and a terrible tragedy that the young Iranian was killed.
Who killed him? The video does not seem so say or show . . .
by the way, little pak man, if you’re so pissed off about ivory tower hypocrites from a thousand miles away who are trying to keep the US from working MORE violence and hypocrisy on Iran, what are YOU doing to defend your country –pounding furiously on a keyboard from the safe haven of a dorm room in another country? I’ve seen the inside of a jail cell — my country put me in one for 26 hours, for the crime of walking on a public street within 2000 feet of where George Bush was. I was punched, handcuffed, pushed, chained by the ankles to a chair, strip searched, humiliated and verbally abused by good ole American democracy-loving automatic weapon wielding flack jacketed policeman who were apparently threatened by a 65 year old woman in a silk sweater. This bastion of democracy refused to let my lawyer talk to me, tho he tried three times over a 24 hour period. I don’t need lessons from you in ivory tower hypocrisy. in fact, it really pisses me off.
Paul says:
February 18, 2011 at 1:25 pm
I did : 9.9 million results…
Rd.,
The Bush administration backed away from notions of attacking Iran, and the NIE confirmed this was reasonable. No one has any evidence the Iranian government has decided to build nukes and is doing so or getting ready to do so.
The Obama administration is less interested in attacking Iran, than was the Bush administration. Should this be described as “desperate”? Or intelligent? Obama continually has to deal with the numerous stooges of the Israel lobby within his own party.
I’ve asked one of his facebook “friends” and he’s never taught at UT. He merely gave a talk on George Orwell, of all people, to a class of students. I’ve learned a lot about this man over the last few months.
Google results for the phrase “US regime” (filtering out anti-US regime and pro-US regime and regime change) – 138,000 results. Just type this in Google:
“us regime” -change -anti-US -pro-US
Google results for “Iranian regime” (filtering out anti-Iranian regime and pro-Iranian regime and regime change) – 1,210,000 results. Just type this in Google: “Iranian regime” -change -anti-Iranian -pro-Iranian
“Perhaps you never really have thought about this in a quiet moment. Please do so now. I hope you’ll keep yourself above this sort of shameful behavior in the future.”
This man doesn’t have any principal he never claimed he ever had any, I just wonder who is the idiot who invited this AH to UT where many of great Iranian scholars teach.
The Financial Times has an excellent leader (editorial) today on the situation in Bahrain and what the government needs to do. I also recommend highly Philip Stephens’ comments in the FT today re: Israel/Palestine (in context of recent events in ME).
Scott,
“Witnesses identified an alleged gunman; some claim they tried to detain him. He has been named. Neda Agha Soltan’s family have called for an investigation by the authorities. There is no evidence one has been conducted. There is no evidence that any meaningful investigation of the murder has been conducted; instead, the state put all its effort into using the case to provide foreign direction of the anti-regime demonstrations.”
This is your evidence that the Iranian government was behind the killing of Neda? Shame on you, Scott. You exploited the death of this poor girl for political purposes, without a shred of evidence – exactly as I wrote.
Perhaps you never really have thought about this in a quiet moment. Please do so now. I hope you’ll keep yourself above this sort of shameful behavior in the future.
It seems , that our 2 resident stooges are losing track of the ‘REAL’ events.
http://www.presstv.com
*Army massacring Bahraini protesters
*Millions call for civilian rule in Egypt
*Five protesters killed in Yemen
*Anti-Gaddafi protesters seize Libyan city
Currently 5 countries are burning in the demand for liberty : Libya , Yemen , Bahrain , Egypt and Jordan and the situation gets worse on hourly basis…
Scott Lucas,
“But that’s boring.” You may be surprised, but I’m not bored. I’d like to know where your funding comes from.
Scott Lucas,
Please explain where your funding comes from.
Pirouz,
We have used regime on occasion to refer to US/UK/Germany but more often we go with Administration for US, Government for UK or Germany (if referring specifically to the Executive Branch).
We could go with system where we are talking about institutions beyond a formally-elected Government, but have found that a bland term. We personally don’t see regime as a pejorative.
But to get to your important question: personally, I don’t support regime change and have never supported it in the case of Iran. I don’t believe it is the business of the US or any other foreign power to impose a political system (or regime?) upon Iranians — that choice should be for Iranians who are exercising guaranteed and protected rights.
S.
According to haaretz the Iranian boats have granted access to the canal. Good work Egypt! The days of the US/israeli puppet are over.
Dear Liz,
Your innocence humbles me.
Liz,
“Reza Esfandiari asked you about your funders…”
And the answer is donations and advertisements.
But that’s boring. If you really want a challenge, ask this question….
Why is the New American Foundation, which supports this blog, one of the 60 organisations linked on the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence’s “blacklist”, with the warning that Iranians should not have any connections with these groups?
If you donate to this blog via a contribution to the New America Foundation, are you in fact an unwitting supporter of the US Government’s devious schemes?
S.
Scott Lucas,
Hejazi was quite possibly linked to the killing. The only smear campaign in town is your’s and that of your government.
Paul,
Of course not. Otherwise, Scott Lucas would lose his funding. He is tired of being a lefty and he wants to spend the rest of his days in the mainstream. However, he’s a bit late, because the West is losing its global hegemony.
Reza,
I am well aware of your smear campaign against Hejazi. Even your basic account is a distortion of what Hejazi said:
*Dr Hejazi said he first thought the gunshot had come from a rooftop.
But later he saw protesters grab an armed man on a motorcycle.
“People shouted ‘we got him, we got him’. They disarmed him and took out his identity card which showed he was a Basij member. People were furious and he was shouting, ‘I didn’t want to kill her’.
“People didn’t know what do to do with him so they let him go. But they took his identity card. There are people there who know who he is. Some people were also taking photos of him.”*
In a situation such as a sudden murder — especially one where Hejazi was trying to save a live — people can have great difficulty establishing what has happened, and so recollections can be muddled. That is not the case here.
But even if Hejazi had initially thought one thing and then altered his story, that is not even a thread for you to hold when you leap to a pre-arranged, foreign-backed conspiracy.
And your closing sentence is ludicrous — Hejazi has been under threat of arrest since June 2009 — not because there is a case against him, but because the authorities have wanted to silence him ever since the murder.
S.
Pak,
Not the foreign media, the western media. The west is not the world. It is a small part of the world, that in recent weeks has grown significantly smaller.
Dear Fiorangela,
Maybe you should open your eyes then, and also consider that the foreign media were thrown out of Iran (or banned from covering protests) days after the elections.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlTXkdfmBq8
The hypocrisy spewing out of your ivory tower, thousands of miles away from any events even remotely similar to the ones we are seeing, really pisses me off.
Back to you.
Our navy boys are heading into the Med
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704900004576152310329221484.html
Hope they have a nice shore leave in Syria.
FYI:
Can you speak in more detail about who the 7 million outsiders of the Iranian ruling structure are and how the situation should be resolved in your opinion?
1. I have never seen a video like this that recorded events involving Iran:
Violent Response to Bahrain Protests
2. Peaceful protesters in Occupied Palestine have endured the slow-motion equivalent of this massacre in Bahrain for over 40 years.
No matter how many definitions of “regime” Scott brings up, in plain and simple terms use of this word is derogatory. When will we see Scott start using phrases such the Bush Regime, the Obama Regime, or the US Regime? Never.
Reza Esfandiari says: February 18, 2011 at 11:43 am
That monarchy will not last.
May be not now, but it has no future any longer.
Rd. says: February 18, 2011 at 11:39 am
I certainly do not trust Mr. Mousavi.
Due to Mr. Karrubi’s efforts exerted on behalf of Mr. Aqajeri, I could trust him more.
But the major issue is not these 2 individuals.
The major issue is the existence of the ongoing self-inflicted wound on the body politic. This cannot be excused – not in 1980 and not now.
Bahraini troops have fired into a crowd of mourners for yesterday’s killings.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12509658
For a small country, the number of deaths so far is akin to a massacre
Pirouz says: February 18, 2011 at 11:36 am & Pak
The Pahlavi monarchy acted weak in regards to Bahrain and indeed the Shia outside of Iran.
That was one major reason for its down-fall.
Islamic Republic has not made that same mistake.
fyi says:
“There are very many young men and women who are tired of the strictures that governs
Furthermore, why should they not feel alienated when they cannot field their own candiates and have to face the dirty tricks of the Guardian Council?”
I can certainly appreciate there may be issues that require greater attention, adjustment, changes, in the internal politics. The question I’d be curious is; the approach Rafsanjani, karoubi, mousavi have taken, is creating a divide which is being exploited by the west. Is this a healthy approach? Are these men are really interested in promoting the ‘changes’ that some segments are desiring, or do they have their own interest and are just using the ‘un-happiness’ of certain segments for their own cause?
Pak,
You know, I pointed out the Iranian origins of most Bahrainis on a comment at Juan Cole’s blog, but for some reason it didn’t pass comment moderation. Which is strange. Perhaps the moderator misunderstood me; that I was advocating Irān-e Bozorg or that Bahrain was Irānzamīn (which it is, by the way).
Liz says: February 18, 2011 at 10:57 am
I agree that Mr. Mousavi, who created a political crisis in Iran by making unsubstantiated allegations against the integrity of Presidential voting in 2009, should be taken to a court of law. However, I do not think that there is any Iranian law that he had broken. I do not think that he could legally be indicated since the Iranian Law – as far as I know – is silent on this topic.
As for the rioters etc., in the absence of political structure, the state has to deal with each individual case separately.
As I said before, the Islamic Republic establishment, 25 years ago, planted the seeds of the Greens. That is when the likes of Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Abtahi, divided the population into With-Us and Not-With-Us (Khodi and Qeyr-khodi) and proceeded to oppress and marginalize the Not-With-Us segment of the population. That segment now, in my opinion, is more than 7 million all over Iran.
This group cannot be marginalized.
Religion (even in its Latin root) has to do with bringing people together and not separating them.
By the way, despite what I said about Bahrain’s endowment of wealth, they are actually running out of oil. The Saudis actually “share” a lot of their oil with the Bahrainis.
Scott,
Does EA regularly apply the term “regime” in describing the United States or United Kingdom or France or Germany? (sorry I didn’t look).
I find it odd that, while your editorial content universally portrays Iran’s government in a negative light and maintains news on the workings of the “opposition”, you deny your publishing effort is involved in advocating and assisting in the overthrow of Iran’s government. Are you being candid? Where’s the editorial perspective representative of Iran’s political establishment?
One would think that such a small island nation – with a population of just over 1 million people – that is endowed with considerable wealth, would be able to cater for the needs of its people.
But no, power always corrupts.
FYI
- Around 90% of Bahrainis can trace their heritage back to Iran.
- Most Bahrainis can speak Farsi (and their Arabic has a Persian twist to it).
- The majority are Shia.
- Bahrainis have a different culture than most other Persian Gulf sheikhdoms: primarily, you will see Bahraini manual labourers, where as countries like Kuwait import their manual labour.
- Bahrain is connected to Saudi Arabia with a massive causeway (arguably built by the Saudis to lay claim to Bahrain)
- The causeway connects Bahrain to the Saudi’s Eastern province. Within this province is the city of Dhahran, where Aramco is headquartered (because most of their oil is there).
- The majority of Dhahran’s population is Shia.
Scott Lucas,
lol! Who do you think you are kidding?
Reza Esfandiari asked you about your funders…
Dear Hassan,
I would love to know more about STRATEGA!
Hmm, a former CIA agent, and a former employee of an AIPAC-established think tank – who is now CEO of a “strategic energy” consultancy firm – promoting engagement with Iran.
Sure, sounds totally legit.
Pirouz,
I should have added thank you very much for taking the time to read the analysis and offering a contribution for dialogue.
S.
excellent piece
Pirouz,
“Is it the editorial direction of your effort to advocate and assist in the overthrow of Iran’s government?”
Absolutely not.
We use the term regime in the sense of this definition: “A regime is the form of government: the set of rules, cultural or social norms, etc. that regulate the operation of government and its interactions with society.” The term is thus broader than an elected Government, taking in elements of the State and system beyond the executive, legislative, and parliamentary branches.
The piece clearly sets out an interpretation of both the regime’s strategy for this week and the opposition’s response. It is meant to interpret the actions on each side rather than to cast judgement.
S.
As I said, people should have the right to assembly and that is why I think the reformist groups and the different principalist groups should all remain active (and that doesn’t have anything to do with being Shia). We will always need checks and balances and the constitution allows this. Howevever, since the green people, meaning those specifically linked to Mousavi and the riots in Tehran, have been violent and since they are funded by the US they should remain excluded from Iranian politics.
{I thought PBS’s editorial standards are supposed to prevent political bias in news coverage?}
ONLY AN IGNORANT MAKES SUCH A STATEMENT. PBS HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE, NOW MORE THAN EVER WHERE THEIR GOVERNMENT FUNDING IS GOING TO BE REDUCED, ZIONIST BROTHEL HOUSE PUSHING FOR THE ZIOFASCISTS LINE.
Their bias has infested all the programming including ‘master piece theatre’ where
‘holocaust’ official story is spread, but make bias film like “a death in Tehran” make by Zionists pro Israel and Iranian traitors and boot licker of Zionism. We stop watching PBS long time ago.
Liz says: February 18, 2011 at 10:41 am
There is no Green Movement that you could point a finger at and ban.
There are very many young men and women who are tired of the strictures that governs their lives.
They are all Shia Muslims and they are all “saved” (from a religious point of view). Why isn’t the Islamic State leave them alone to live their livbes?
Furthermore, why should they not feel alienated when they cannot field their own candiates and have to face the dirty tricks of the Guardian Council?
Furthermore, the courts have to decide if a political organization is breaking the law and not the Police.
Police in Iran (those who report to the Judiciary Branch) have a nasty habit of making Law out of thin air. And there is no recourse from their illegal creation of rules and regulations.
I think it will be a good idea for the Islamic Republic’s leaders to diband the Moral Police.
I think it will be a good idea for the Islamic Republic’s leaders to either change the election law or to stop enforcing it if it is politically unfeasible.
[The Majlis members do not seem to grasp that the presence of these "Other" people in the Majlis will benefit them by ameliorating the Group Think syndrome afflicting that august body.]
Richard Steven Hack says:
New NIE on Iran
“(NIE) by the US intelligence community concludes that Iran’s leadership is split over whether to develop. “There’s a strong sense that a number of Iranian regime officials know that the sanctions are having a serious effect.”
“An NIE is considered the consensus view of all US intelligence agencies.”
So the ‘US’ consensus view is that, they are unable to confront IRI head on (War), so now lets focus on the notion of political divide in order to promote US designs. It seems to hint a sense of desperato on part of US in its dealing with IRI.
fyi,
Good point.
fyi,
I agree that people should have the right to assembly and that is why I think the reformist groups and the different principalist groups should all remain active. We will always need checks and balances. Howevever, since the green people have been violent and since they are funded by the US they should remain excluded from Iranian politics.
Rd. says: February 18, 2011 at 10:28 am
البته درآمد سرانه یک چیز است و فقر یک چیز دیگر. درآمد سرانه ایرانیان در سال ۱۳۸۴ به سطح قبل از انقلاب برگشت اما در همین مدت فقر یک سوم شده است. به نظر من عللی که ذکر کردید این پدیده را خوب توضیح میدهند.
مسئلهی دیگر تفاوت سطح بین شهر و روستاست. دادهها نشان میدهد که هرچند درآمد سرانهی ایرانیان شهری تازه از سطح قبل از انقلاب عبور کرده، درآمد سرانهی روستاییان دو برابر اوج قبل از انقلاب است.
دکتر صالحی در این زمینه پارسال در ژورنال نابرابری اقتصادی یک پیپر داده:
http://www.filebox.vt.edu/users/salehi/Iran_poverty_final.pdf
Fatemeh says: February 18, 2011 at 10:09 am
Iranians do not have any idea on what goes in Iran either.
There are many Irans and the Green Movement is one vision among many.
I think the government should allow the Greens or others to lawfully assemble and march.
At the very least, from a political stand point, the size of this group could be determined and its geographical reach.
The Islamic Republic cannot continue to govern in the same way as it did before the Summer of 2009.
I do not support or condone the Green Movement; I think they are fools that are caught in the internal factional fights of the In-People of the Iranian power structure.
But, at the same time, I beleive governance has to do with accomodation of a variety of interests.
Of course, I think Iran could become as democratic as Denmark but per US strategy, she will remain a target.
Fyi, thanks, I am curious on the inequality of the wealth aspect. As the article seems to ‘highlight’, it is the inequality which seems to offer a better trigger for social change. I am interested to know what the reality looks to various people on the ground.
Rd. says: February 18, 2011 at 10:08 am
Your figure of 8 million souls is consistent with the figure of 7 million that are covered by the Komit-e Emdad-e Imam Khomeini.
Scott Lucas has no idea about what goes on in Iran. He has a couple of people translate bits and pieces of green websites and he mimics them.
Interesting program on RT. Its two against one, but at least Iran has a voice unlike on CNN, the BBC, or even for that matter Aljazeera International these days:
http://rt.com/programs/crosstalk/crosstalk-iran-unrest-protests/comments/
“According to the World Bank, for 2005, Iran’s absolute poverty level at $2/day stood at 8%”
Is it the absolute poverty line or is it the overall inequality that determines economic challenges in any given society?
I’d greatly appreciate it if anyone with above my 101 econ can comment on the following, specially from those in Iran as to how they view the economic conditions as of today. Thanks.
http://www.kevanharris.com/
Pirouz,
Enduring America is a front for the GM, as is Tehran Bureau. Lucas may be independent, but he is not objective – he can’t even pretend to be. It would be interesting to know who is donors and sponsors are.
Btw, “nezam” can translate as “regime”, “order” or “establishment”.
A “democratic regime” is not an oxymoron.
Scott,
The problem with the Neda shooting incident is that the main witness, Dr Arash Hejazi, changed his story early on.
Initially, he claimed the assailant was a rooftop sharpshooter who “took aim at her heart”. He then changed it to a baseeji on a motorcycle whom he didn’t actually see fire. He just said that a mob grabbed hold of him and took his identity card.
Read my article on the matter:
http://www.iranian.com/main/2009/nov/no-rest-or-peace?page=1
If Dr. Hejazi would return to Iran, or at least cooperate remotely, perhaps the Iranian authorities could solve the case.
Nasrallah: ‘To Galilee pilgrim’
Lebanese Islamic Resistance leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has really scare the hell out of Zionazi Benji Netanyahu. In his recent address to the Resistance freedom-fighters, Nasrallah said: “I say to the fighters of the Islamic Resistance: be ready. If a new war is imposed on Lebanon we may ask you to take Galilee, to free Galilee”.
Forgetting Jewish army’s military humiliation in 34-day war in Summer 2006 – Benji responded to Nasrallah’s call by saying: “Nasrallah announced today that he can occupy the Galilee, but I have news for you, he can’t. Anyone who hides in a bunker will stay in a bunker.”
Although, the premier has tried to respond to Narallah with confidence and in a derogatory tone and assure the public opinion inside Israel, the Hezbollah leader’s response has caused concerns for some in Israel.
In fact, Nasrallah was making fun of an earlier boasting by Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak, who while visiting the demoralized Jewish soldiers along Lebanese border: “You may be called to enter Lebanon again. We must be prepared for every test.”
The Zionist regime and its cheerleaders in the US, France, Britain, German and Canada – are hoping that US-supported Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) investigating the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri will indict some of Hizbullah leaders which will result in a new civil war – providing a golden opportunity for the Jewish army to finish the task which it failed to achieve in 2006.
Sheik Nasrallah and the leaders of Christian parties supporting Hizbullah in Lebanese parliament have called STL an Israeli Project.
During the 34-day war, Nasrallah lived up to his every promise and avoided rhetoric about goals not within his power to achieve. This caused the Israelis to believe that his remarks do not serve as psychological or military bluff. His famous slogan of “Haifa and after Haifa” materialized in the form of Hezbollah’s missile attack on the city.
After the 2006 war, Hezbollah managed to match Israel’s threats with those of its own. The secretary general repeatedly said Lebanon would return Israel’s potential attack on Beirut Rafiq Hariri International Airport with targeting the Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv and hit Tel Aviv, should Israel assault the houses in the Lebanese capital’s southern suburb: An eye for an eye.
Now, Hezbollah has expanded this warning, saying any Israeli military advancement would be met with advancement of the movement’s fighters into Galilee, the northern parts of occupied Palestine.
http://rehmat2.wordpress.com/2011/02/18/nasrallah-to-galilee-pilgrim/
Scott,
I took the time to read part of your article. I’ve a few questions:
How do you qualify this piece as an “analysis”? (In my opinion it reads more like an editorial.) And why do you refer to Iran’s political establishment as “the regime”?
Is it the editorial direction of your effort to advocate and assist in the overthrow of Iran’s government?
Iran Analysis: The Opposition Responds to The Regime’s Hatred Rally
http://enduringamerica.squarespace.com/home/2011/2/18/iran-analysis-the-opposition-responds-to-the-regimes-hatred.html
Eric,
Witnesses identified an alleged gunman; some claim they tried to detain him. He has been named. Neda Agha Soltan’s family have called for an investigation by the authorities. There is no evidence one has been conducted. There is no evidence that any meaningful investigation of the murder has been conducted; instead, the state put all its effort into using the case to provide foreign direction of the anti-regime demonstrations.
S.
Dear Leveretts, I’m sorry to say it as I used to respect your work a great deal, but I now have come to agree with the opinion of many others that the two of you have crossed the line one too many times, have lost your objectivity, and have become witting or unwitting propagandists for the Iranian regime.
Your previous posting in which you quote Mr. Marandi (hardly an objective source as his father is Mr. Khamenei’s doctor) as saying there were only a few hundred protesters earlier this week has now been proven false by the regime itself, which announced it imprisoned 1500 protesters.
Leveretts, for the sake of your own credibility it would be useful if you disclosed your financial interests. Are you getting money from the Iranian government? Who are the clients of your energy consulting firm Stratega? Do you have conflicts of interest? Why are you asking for donations from people given you own an energy consulting firm?
I look forward to your responses and give you the benefit of the doubt. Your refusal to respond will be a response in itself.
Fiorangela,
“Do you have an opinion on whether that scenario was a good thing for the Iraqi people?”
Not trying to duck your question. I just don’t understand it, which is almost certainly my fault.
My basic point is that the US has a harder time marshaling the necessary domestic support for war if the target is perceived to be a fair-election democracy that respects basis constitutional freedoms of its people and doesn’t overtly threaten its neighbors. If the country opposes “US interests” in the Middle East (and we know what that means), the war mongers will still try. But it’s a tougher sell, and I don’t think they’d have closed the sale on Iraq had they not been able to paint Saddam (correctly, as it happened) as a brutal dictator.
They try to do the same thing with Iran. Try a Google search on “Iran” and “Supreme Leader” and “final say in all matters of state” – just that exact phrase, not even variations of it (such as my favorite: the NYT Executive Editor’s (Bill Keller) statement that Khamenei’s “word is quite literally law”). Last time I checked, several weeks back, that narrow search yielded 9,400 hits (down from 15,000 a few years ago – a step in the right direction, I suppose).
The US government’s war-mongerers know their chances of ginning up US support for attacking Iran depend on painting its government as a dictatorship. And it’s largely working. It’s important for people to understand that Iran isn’t. Showing it has fair elections (except for candidate vetting) goes a long way toward that. But it would go a lot farther to show Iran lets its people express themselves peacefully.
“They” provide….
Kooshy,
I face the same dilemma as you do when translating since play on words, multiple layered meanings, and symbolism/allegories are so much part of the literature. I think you did a fine job explaining/introducing the terms and then translating/interpreting the verse.
Fiorangela,
You might find these series interesting (if you have not already seen them). The provide a more comprehensive look at what’s going on:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pin8fbdGV9Y
Richard,
Your post of 6:16 AM is very measured and contains numerous good points. I’d say it brings us closer on this issue than we’ve been. I appreciate very much the restraint. I’m going to be tied up the next few days, capable of short responses at best, so I won’t be able to comment at length (and, frankly, there’s not much to criticize in it), but I will assure you at least that I’ll reread it at least twice more and let it sink in.
Scott,
“Witnesses saw a man fire the shot that killed Neda. Several tried to hold him but were not able to do so. He has been named and claimed to be a Basij member.”
They not only tried to hold him, Scott. They did. Then they let him go. Because no one saw him shoot Neda. They saw he was a card-carrying Basij member. Period.
We’re grown-ups here, Scott. And well-informed.
The article that i posted at 7:16 am is by Kam Zarrabi
This is the first time that I have come across his writings.
He seems to be very knowledgable so i decieded to find out more about him.
He is an Iranian Writer, lecturer and television commentator on foreign affairs, with emphasis on the Middle East.
His website is:
http://www.intellectualdiscourse.com/
Born in Tehran, Iran – December 1935
Graduate: University of California, Los Angeles – 1960 – Geology. Post Graduate studies: Exploration Geophysics, Management of Hydrocarbon Resources, Advanced Management, Economics.
Geophysical Engineer, Exploration Geologist, Manager of Exploration – for various subsidiaries of Standard Oil Co. of Indiana (Pan American Petroleum Corp., American International Oil Co., Amoco-UK, Iran Pan American Oil Co) – California, Texas, North Sea, Persian Gulf – 1960-1969.
Director General, Ministry of Economy, Iran. Chief of the Bureau of Mines – 1969-1974.
Chairman and CEO, Iran High Dense Co., mining and manufacturing operations in Iran, serving the oil industry; CEO, Doreen IMCO Inc. in joint-venture with Halliburton Company of U.S., 1974-1979.
Research in Humanities: philosophy, cultural anthropology, archaeology, comparative religion, cross-cultural studies and foreign policy issues – 1978-present.
President, regional chapter of World Affairs Council of San Diego, 1988-91
Available to conduct lectures and seminars on related subjects
C Span Washington Journal’s morning question is, “Could the union-workers swarm-protest that occurred in Wisconsin happen in YOUR state?”
In addition to the budget gap in the US federal budget, every state in the union has a budget gap, ranging from a 2% gap in Indiana to 45% in California. State pensions are not funded and face shortfalls.
Egypt style protests. Coming soon to a state capital near U SA.
On NPR this morning, Neil Barofsky was interviewed. Barofsky has just announced that he will resign from his post at US Treasury Dept where his assignment was to oversee the TARP program that was to attempt to assist middle class Americans facing foreclosure by modifying their loans. The program was supposed to reach at least 4 million people, but only 500,000 have actually been served.
Barofsky blamed the bureaucratic machinery and the original design of the program. I think that’s merely shifting the blame.
But there is another, much larger complaint that the American people are entitled to lodge against the US Treasury Department but that NPR will never mention: WHY WAS AN APPARATCHIK OF THE ISRAEL LOBBY, Stuart Levey, permitted to turn the Treasury Department, the office that was supposed to keep America’s financial house in order, into an international shake-down scheme for the benefit of Israel?
What will it take for America’s leaders to recognize that they and their government institutions have been taken over by a gang of thugs and thieves with no interest in serving the American people?
Samuel Untermyer was at the nexus of a scheme to rape and bankrupt a technologically and culturally advanced nation — Germany — in the first half of the 20th century. His scheming eventuated in 60 years of war, the deaths of tens of millions of Germans, Russians, Poles, and others. The goal of Untermyer and his gang was to funnel European wealth, people, and political power to Palestine and turn it into a hideout for zionists.
Today, in support of that zionist project, people like Stuart Levey are raping Iran, using US institutions. We Americans have become accomplices in a criminal enterprise.
Shame.
Iran: Rafsanjani Viewed as the Axis of Sedition
http://www.payvand.com/news/11/feb/1166.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
“Unfortunately, by relying on Mr. Hashemi, seditionists have confronted the Islamic revolution. Till today Mr. Rafsanjani has not separated himself from seditionists and this absence of separation from them is the key reason why I say that Mr. Hashemi was the axis of the 2009 sedition. To speak without formalities, I would say that Mr. Hashemi played the central role in the 2009 sedition,” he said.
Eric @ 11:27 pm Feb 17, wrote:
“Saddam Hussein was not by internal opponents. He was beaten by the US military, after the US government had mounted a very successful propaganda campaign that often featured Saddam’s denial of basic political rights. If Iraq had been holding fair presidential elections, and had let its citizens march peaceably down the streets of Baghdad, I don’t think Saddam would have ended up hanging from the end of a rope.”
Do you have an opinion on whether that scenario was a good thing for the Iraqi people?
Phil Weiss wrote an alternate history in which young Iraqis mounted an Egypt-style protest and brought down Saddam relatively peacefully. In Weiss’s scenario, the US administration was vastly different as well.
The only aspect of Phil’s what-could-have-been-history that commenters offered some objections to was the choice of Feingold as president.
“Does the United States truly support “democracy” and self-determination in the strategic region of the Middle East? Are you f—–g crazy?!”
the Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, and Vice President, Joe Biden, were energetically encouraging the Iranian opposition groups to follow Egypt’s example and stage similar demonstrations against the Iranian regime.
The leaders of Iran’s opposition movement decided to take advantage of the occasion and scheduled demonstrations on Monday, February 14, supposedly in support of the Egyptian uprising, and thus jumping on the ongoing bandwagon for obvious reasons. It was, however, interesting that, watching TV and accessing internet videos of these demonstrations, there were no banners displaying solidarity with the Egyptian uprising.
The highly publicized encouragements by American officials further blemished the so-called Green movement in Tehran and helped discredit its leadership for seemingly playing into the hands of Iran’s enemies. This kind of brazen interference by the American officials in Iran’s internal affairs will prove to be another setback for reform movements and a potential rapprochement between the United States and Iran – and, my always cynical mind tells me, a deliberate one!
Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Biden certainly must know that there is a significant difference between the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Yemen, and soon to be Saudi Arabia on the one side, and the demonstrations in Iran, on the other. The main difference is what Hillary Clinton correctly referred to as the nation out there whose voice must also be heard.
It is not at all surprising that Iran’s firebrand and ferocious critic of American and Israeli agendas in the Middle East, enjoys tremendous popularity among, not just the Egyptians, but in practically all Islamic states in the region. His popularity is not due to his good looks or the way the Islamic Republic of Iran is conducting its own national affairs. He is admired simply because of his and the Iranian regime’s stubborn opposition against the policies of the United States and the Israeli regime that have kept Egypt and other client states from realizing their dreams of self determination, national integrity and prestige, and independent statehood.
While Iran today does have huge internal problems, mostly in keeping up with demands for economic growth and the unrequited expectations of, as I have said before, a youthful, upwardly mobile population, the regime does enjoy the spiritual support of the Iranian masses as a whole. This is exactly the opposite of the situation in the Arab nations undergoing their growing pains at this time.
The Arab and non Arab Islamic masses are convulsing against decades of subservience to the interests of the colonial powers, kept silent by despotic dictators whose livelihood and advantaged position depend directly on their loyalty to the wishes of their benefactors at the expense of their own nation’s best interests.
Does the United States truly support “democracy” and self-determination in the strategic region of the Middle East? Are you f—–g crazy?!
http://www.payvand.com/news/11/feb/1149.html
Arnold: Oops, you’ve opened the box again!
You’re right. All I can do now is beg Eric to close it again by not answering your questions.
If he doesn’t comply, I’ll be forced to cut and paste my earlier stuff. Full warning!
I’ve tried to carefully distinguish in my previous post a few minutes ago between Japan Option and “hide the ball”. One hopes Eric makes the distinction as I have. Then we don’t have to get into this again.
Lucas: “Not interested in cheap political games in a situation like this.”
I call BS. That’s all you’re interested in.
Lucas: And I’m happy to call you a liar once again. Or like Obama, you’re either a liar – or too stupid to be in your position. At least in Obama’s case people generally think he’s smart, so I assume he’s a liar.
You – not so much.
Kooshy: Clemons is a light weight. I’ve rarely found anything he’s written in the past, which I’ve read over at Talking Points Memo when I was over there, to be particularly insightful. He’s like Cirincione but with even less credibility.
Eric: A quibble. The Japan Option does not involve “hiding the ball”. A Japan Option is right out in the open, except it might not be explicitly stated to be a chosen option.
The fact is that the Japan Option is inherent in the full fuel cycle. No country needs to admit that it is keeping its options open. It’s a given as long as they have the LEU and the technology.
“Hiding the ball” refers more to enriching LEU while at the same time developing the plans and production capability to make and deploy nuclear weapons, as opposed to merely having the designs or even less the knowledge for a weapon. It’s more like what North Korea did than what Iran is doing.
You are of course correct that Iran has explicitly disavowed nuclear weapons. But they still have the Japan Option regardless.
The problem is that the US – and even some of those who support Iran – conflates and equates the inherent Japan Option with the INTENT to manufacture AND deploy weapons. The US also refuses to acknowledge that the Japan Option is LEGAL. Therefore Iran is not “hiding the ball” when it refuses to implement the AP without a US recognition that enrichment – and therefore also the Japan Option – is LEGAL.
The Japan Option is not a threat. Only the manufacture and deployment of nukes is a threat. This is what Arnold argued in the past here in referring to a country actually manufacturing a weapon device and not introducing fissile material into it. That’s an extreme example intended to illustrate that the Japan Option is not a threat. It’s not a “hide the ball” unless the country actually goes that far as to build a number of weapons without fissile material and then store them for future use.
I doubt that either Iran or Japan are doing that. In the case of Japan it would make sense since they have the manufacturing capability and if they ever needed them against China, they’d need them quicker than Iran ever will against the US or Israel – since Iran will never catch up to either country whereas Japan actually could catch up to China quickly if the weapons were already built.
As I say, a quibble. Iran is not “hiding the ball”. It is holding back its one last negotiation tactic, not refusing to implement the AP just to keep the US guessing. That doesn’t help Iran at all. But Iran does know it has the Japan Option – even if it doesn’t care because it can’t use it.
One has to be careful. Any conflation of these sorts of things allows the warmongers to score a point.
Is PreeTV live stream working?
Eric: Good point about the NIE leak possibly being fabricated. OTOH, does it matter? If the real NIE says something different and it’s never revealed…
Well, does a tree that falls in the forest when no one is around make a sound? Actually it does, of course – it makes vibrations that could be heard. But until it is heard, it’s irrelevant.
So, yes, now is the time for someone to leak it IF in fact it does say something different. But if it doesn’t, then this is all we have.
And my point still stands that, as it stands, it’s exactly what one would expect from the current CIA and current Administration – wishy-washy. But even as wishy-washy as it is, it confirms my impressions: that there is nothing more than a “due diligence” nuclear weapons reseach program by Iran’s military and there is no deployment program. Which is why the CIA hasn’t got a clue – their in country intelligence is bad and their SIGINT is also bad. They can’t distinguish in fact between a research program and a deployment program.
The problem for us is that this allows the Administration to continue representing a peaceful energy program as something sinister. And even if Iran were to come right out and say, “Yes, that’s right, we have a weapons research program and not a deployment program” – i.e., disclose more, as you put it – they’d still be in the same boat. The US would say, “See, they’ve ADMITTED they HAVE a weapons program”, blurring the distinction further. And under Bush the US has already said it won’t permit Iran to even have the KNOWLEDGE to make a weapon.
So this NIE leak ends up serving the exact same purpose as if there were a release of the real NIE, as long as the point is made that Iran MAY have a weapons research program. That’s all the US and Israel need to complete the justification for a war.
Only if the real NIE is released or leaked and it explicitly says there IS NO research program – which again I doubt the CIA can even distinguish from a distance – AND no deployment program can we get ahead of the war mongers for even an instant.
Really the only thing we’ve learned today is that the US intelligence community is as split about Iran as they were about Iraq and just as subject to intimidation by the politicians.
I’ll be interested in hearing what Ray McGovern (or Philip Giraldi or Robert Baer) has to say about this WSJ article, since he is intimately familiar with the NIE process and still has contacts in the intel community.
But since you went there,
1) Now after more than a year of my explaining as patiently as I can on at least a biweekly basis what I mean when I say Japan option, what you understand “Japan option” to mean?
2) What do you mean when you say “hide the ball”, who here do you think advocates that and what statements, actually quoted if possible, have cause you to understand that is what is being advocated?
Eric:
this “Japan option” “hide the ball” nonsense
Eric, please don’t do this. I feel like the comments section reaches its worst from here.
kooshy,
It might help your analysis if you were able to determine EA’s position on the events in Tunisia, Egypt, and Bahrain.
S.
Eric,
Witnesses saw a man fire the shot that killed Neda. Several tried to hold him but were not able to do so. He has been named and claimed to be a Basij member.
Those who tried to save Neda have been harassed by the regime and threatened with prosecution.
Dozens of people besides Neda died at the hands of security forces on 20 June 2009.
Not interested in cheap political games in a situation like this.
S.
Reza,
There were numerous reports of demonstrations outside Tehran on Monday — if you want an antidote to your repeated denials, read EA’s coverage.
Just because I don’t put a number on those gathered outside the capital, does not mean significant protests did not happen. It means that, given the difficulties of reporting from outside Tehran, I am not going to put up a speculative number.
S.
RSH,
Happy to deny your claim. My motivation is to bring a little ray of sunshine in your life.
Best,
S.
Pirouz,
Much appreciated. At this point, we may just have to watch and evaluate further developments, such as today’s rallies and Sunday’s opposition marches for 1 Esfand.
S.
I really hope the bahrain king fall, that will reduce US hegemony in the area. Also notice the total lack of support for the demonstrators from the white house. white house should be the hypocrisy house.
Also: “US report: Iran not after nuclear arms”
http://www.presstv.com/detail/165786.html
Steve once again is showing his dishonesty, just who are this IRGC deserters that he is quoting, is it possible he is quoting the Iranian curveball, or possibly he may be reading too much of “Professor” Lucas’s EA.
Note- Professor Lucas is currently teaching Color Regime Changes (CRC) to talented potential foreign students who if successful can become future Ben Alis in the country of their curriculum, potential applicants can directly contact Enduring America which for ease of remembering is graphicly represented with logo that resembles Pentagon DOD.
Anti-government protests spread: Key questions and answers
By Yahoo! News Thu Feb 17, 10:29 am ET
By Steve Clemons
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_exclusive/20110217/pl_yblog_exclusive/anti-government-protests-spread-key-questions-and-answers/print
“In Iran, the government plays for keeps and seems to have few inhibitions about cracking down on protesters. The key thing to watch in Iran are splits in the leadership and the relative power of factions rather than what the state is doing to the people in the streets. There are mullahs and factional leaders, even in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, who feel that President Ahmadenijad and Ayatollah Khamenei have undermined the integrity of the nation, its interests and economy, and even the spirit of the Islamic revolution. It recently was learned from high level Revolutionary Guard deserters that there are major differences of opinion inside the highest ranks of the IRGC and government. Seeing these splits widen and seeing the current leadership constrained and rolled back may give the protesters more of a chance to succeed. It is likely, however, that the Iranian government will be more decisive in deploying violence against protesters and will cling to power more tenaciously than the Mubarak franchise did.”
Persian Gulf,
“You often forget that it is this vagueness that prevents an invasion or total denial of the rights. There is no doubt about it. We have seen that in the case of Iraq. It also keeps the door sufficiently open for Iran to permanently remove the chance of an attack at the opportune time. The U.S will never be satisfied with Iran’s compliance, no matter the amount.”
My earlier comment missed your point, which I see now related only to the nuclear issue. This is nothing more than the familiar “Japan option” argument. Many here subscribe to it, as you know. Iran’s Supreme Leader apparently does not, since he flatly denies any intention to develop nuclear bombs. Anyone with a triple digit IQ who subscribed to this “Japan option” “hide the ball” nonsense would not speak as he does. He’d be vague, just as you say Iran is being.
Persian Gulf,
“We have seen the kind of openness in the nuclear front you are somehow talking about during the Khatami’s era. they were going after military compounds one after another.”
I have no idea what you mean by this. I’ve never suggested Iran should disclose military installations.
Richard,
The Wall Street Journal article purports to quote last year’s NIE, which the US government felt it best not to make public. Leaks last year indicated that the 2007 NIE finding – that Iran had stopped nuclear weapons research years ago and had not restarted it – was reaffirmed in the 2010 NIE.
But, again, the 2010 NIE was not made public. As a result, anybody can “leak” (or “fabricate”) whatever he feels like “leaking” to eager ears from anti-Iran publications like the Wall Street Journal, and no one has the hard information to challenge those leaks.
Except maybe Julian Assange. Julian, are you out there?
Persian Gulf,
“You often forget that it is this vagueness that prevents an invasion or total denial of the rights. There is no doubt about it. We have seen that in the case of Iraq.”
Saddam Hussein was not by internal opponents. He was beaten by the US military, after the US government had mounted a very successful propaganda campaign that often featured Saddam’s denial of basic political rights. If Iraq had been holding fair presidential elections, and had let its citizens march peaceably down the streets of Baghdad, I don’t think Saddam would have ended up hanging from the end of a rope.
Eric:
“I “criticize” occasionally – though I prefer the phrase “suggest improvements” – because I think certain behavior prevents Iran from getting the full “bang for its buck” from its admirable efforts to (1) comply with the NPT and its Safeguards Agreement;”
You often forget that it is this vagueness that prevents an invasion or total denial of the rights. There is no doubt about it. We have seen that in the case of Iraq. It also keeps the door sufficiently open for Iran to permanently remove the chance of an attack at the opportune time. The U.S will never be satisfied with Iran’s compliance, no matter the amount.
I would dare to say the same is true for the opposition. I don’t necessarily support Iran’s gov. for not letting the oppositions to hold protests which is a right guaranteed by the constitution, but we have to consider this basic fact that the opposition is only interested in a zero-sum game. I am pretty much involved in their discussion. It’s naivety to think they want peaceful protests. Peaceful protests will kill their movement and their cause as they don’t have anything valuable to say peacefully. They are not that type of rational people. Most of these youngsters are no exception, unfortunately. The duality of the U.S-Iran confrontation makes any type of peaceful movement irrelevant. The opposition, like the U.S gov., always want to exploit this situation to the limit. so does, to some extent, Iran’s gov.
We have seen the kind of openness in the nuclear front you are somehow talking about during the Khatami’s era. they were going after military compounds one after another.
Pepe Escobar shifts his sights to Bahrain in Asia Times.
All about Pearl roundabout
:http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB18Ak01.html
Quotes
Bahrain is a tiny archipelago of 1.2 million people separated from Saudi Arabia by a causeway – 65% of Bahrain is Shi’ite. But the al-Khalifa dynasty in power is Sunni. Most Shi‘ites are poor, marginalized and discriminated against – a rural proletariat. And they have been squeezed further as a mass of “imported” Sunnis – upwards of 50,000 from southern Pakistan, Balochistan, Jordan and Yemen – have been naturalized. Add to it a classic divide and rule strategy – local workforce pitted against foreign workforce; 54% of the population are guest workers, nearly half of these from southwest India.
King Hamad, in power since 2002 and a graduate of Cambridge University, is a wily ruler. There’s an elected parliament, women do vote, and some political prisoners have been released. That’s what Washington calls “stability”. But the king is terrified to death of the Shi’ite majority; no wonder virtually everyone in the Ministry of Defense and the police is an “imported” Sunni.
Although there’s the odd Sunni, the protesters in Bahrain are overwhelmingly Shi’ite. And they are extremely well organized; they even have a media center, and there are first aid tents everywhere. The monarchy and the government still don’t know what hit them. This is no Oscar-nominated King’s Speech; this king is actually speechless. They even went pre-emptive, with the government last week giving US$2,660 to every family after earlier increasing food subsidies, and hiring Western public relations firms to advise on damage control.
Then came the usual. Riot police using the proverbial tear gas and rubber bullets. Internet slowing to a crawl – with government employees openly admitting they are following official orders.
Compare it to the Pearl roundabout, where protesters set up a projector and a screen to follow the global media coverage, and a canteen to distribute food. Tweets from Manama extol “the level of civility and self-organization”. A coalition of secular, leftist protesters is being formed. It was all going the Tahrir way.
Then came this Thursday, in the dead of night, a few hours after the Pearl roundabout – affectionately called Lulu by locals – was still packed with thousands, chanting their lungs out, even through the Egyptian national anthem. By 3 am, with no warning, hundreds of riot police staged a crackdown, firing rubber bullets and tear gas, beating a lot of people up, and totally clearing Lulu by 4am. Many were asleep in the tent city, including women and children. At least two protesters – perhaps three – were killed.
What will that accomplish? The protests won’t go away. Essentially, the people of Bahrain want a constitutional monarchy; fair elections; the release of all political prisoners; and the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa (the king’s uncle, in power for no less then 39 years since independence from Britain), as well as the entire parliament.
Up to now the concept that the king should go was a second thought; now it’s coming to the forefront. How could it not; after all, the king only distributed his largesse to Sunnis. And after this crackdown people will be even more energized. Tweets from Bahrainis have been insisting this is a movement by the people for the people, no matter their sect. And they have refused to call it a Shi’ite uprising, claiming this is about Bahrainis fighting for a new constitution and respect for human rights, not revolution or regime change. But that may change in a minute, especially after this vicious crackdown; see Egypt three weeks ago and Iran early this week.
The main Shi’ite party, al-Wifaq, had already lost any belief in the current democratic facade, withdrawing from the elected lower house of parliament (18 seats from a total of 40) in protest against the previous crackdown (at least two people were killed, and dozens injured).
There are plenty of schools and a good national university – although most women prefer to study in the US or in Lebanon. At the same time, both Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Sistani and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are very popular in Bahrain.
The medieval House of Saud simply cannot contemplate a more democratic, Shi’ite-represented Bahrain – even though it would never become a slave of Tehran. Arab Shi’ites are very independent, they consider themselves Arabs first, and Shi’ites second. Most don’t follow ayatollahs.
The key problem is that Shi’ites defying the powers that be in Bahrain would seduce all other minority Gulf Arab Shi’ites, from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates to Saudi Arabia itself. And one thing is certain; a really representative Shi’ite-dominated government would mean goodbye to the US 5th Fleet.
This could get really messy – and it certainly will. If protests do reach an Egyptian fever level – crackdown or not – Saudi Arabia will enter the fray to keep the al-Khalifa in power. Rumors swirl that Saudi police has already crossed the causeway to combat protests.
End Quotes
“Hasn’t the time arrived for the American people to confront the wrongdoing of their government, much as people in the Middle East are confronting the wrongdoing of their governments?”
Dan,
Not even close!
Are we talking about the same overmedicated-couch potatoes with restless leg syndrome whom on average watch 8 hours of TV per day, being constantly brain washed to consume, knowing full well that they cannot have the lifestyles that they have if it weren’t for some poor bastard being raked over the coals every day in the ME and elsewhere by the tyrants that the US supports in order to steal their resources?
Not even close!
Fara says: February 17, 2011 at 10:38 pm
That man should be tried and executed for his crimes against non-military targets: Imam Musa Sadr, French DC-10 flight, and PAN AM Flight 103.
Rather “20 anti-governemnt protesters…”
20 anti-government prosters have been killed in Lybia so far.
Apparently, the Lybian students in the US who are receiving scholarship from Lybia are warned that their scholarships will be cut if they don’t participate in pro-government rally.
Unlike Iranian.com they still tolerate me over at the TB, even though Kelly refers to me as a “basher”when I heads-up her with a glitch alert on her site. Once in a blue moon they even link to my site.
Richard Steven Hack says: February 17, 2011 at 6:52 pm
As lon as the US Grand Strategy is the destriuction of locally powerful states, war with Islamic Iran is on the US agenda.
Furthermore, the inability or unwillingness of US planners to take into account the enhanced power of Iran since 2004, make the war more likely rather then less. Since the US planners still insist on accepting a faulty set of assumptions.
The Iranians were extremely lucky for the following resons:
1- Disintegration of US project in Iraq
2- Persistent and global economic crisis since late 2007
3- Revolutions in Arab states
These developments, however, does not remove the threat to Islamic Iran.
They only delay that threat.
Iran has no stakes in the stability and prosperity of the Southern Persian Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan.
The best course action for the Iranian leaders is to try to advance the Revolutionary causes as much as they can and as far as they can. As long as the threat to Iran persists, that must be the case.
Reza
“You didn’t answer my question: Why is PBS Frontline hosting Tehran Bureau in the first place? Btw, PBS has links to the BBC, doesn’t it?”
Reza that I thought RSH explained, PBS is founded by private and public corporation, what do you expect them to do, they want a regime change since justifiably they are threaten by Iran’s revolutionary ideology that’s how many individuals and entities feel about Iran since the revolution, with what is happening to the colonies that doesn’t sounds too off the mark any way.
Many Americans specially the more educated one know what is going on, and since they know Iran’s revolutionary ideology will translate to lower standard of living for Americans or Europeans benignly (we like democracy but we have no control of our government sort of like what Eric writes about American government is out of control from the voters) approve of what their government does.
Since 2006 I have stopped watching listening fallowing any of MSM American media period, unless when I get a link to an article referenced from an alternative media.
Kooshy,
You didn’t answer my question: Why is PBS Frontline hosting Tehran Bureau in the first place? Btw, PBS has links to the BBC, doesn’t it?
Kooshy: Good Counterpunch article that recaps what the Egyptian revolution did right. I really am surprised at how well it went. But then, IIRC, the Situationists used to say that insurrections – or more precisely the people who make them – can be trusted to do the right things once they’re fully engaged. Similar situations arose during the Spanish Revolution, the Russian anarchist resistance against the Reds, and elsewhere in history.
Once people are freed from their fear, they can allow their minds and imaginations to take them where they need to go.
It’s like being what Zen masters call a “Zen man”. Someone who has developed the power of joriki, which is the power of always unconsciously doing what is appropriate and correct no matter what the circumstances and being completely unafraid and completely independent of all social, religious and cultural constraints.
Reza
“How is it that PBS Frontline is serving as the mouthpiece for Kelly Niknejad’s “Tehran Bureau”, itself a manifest front for the green movement?”
Reza PBS and Frontline is used to bring credibility to TB, since the PBS and especially the frontline has more credibility among US’s left intellectuals and academicians. It leans somewhat to establishment’s democrats sort of left to DLC
Very interesting article
February 17, 2011
Conditions and Consequences
Anatomy of Egypt’s Revolution
By ESAM AL-AMIN
http://www.counterpunch.org/amin02172011.html
Reza,
“I agree with Article 27 of the IRI’s constitution. But I think that the right to freely protest must be tempered by respect for public order and national security.”
That’s always the balance, and the last half of your sentence is always the government’s argument for prohibiting rallies or other forms of expression. Sometimes it’s a winning argument, other times not. (In one sense, it’s always a winning argument, since the government always gets to decide who wins the argument.)
I’m inclined to err on the side of free expression here, principally because I don’t consider the risk to security to be as great as you do. But I respect your view. If I were Iranian, I might well feel the Greens represent a greater threat to national security than I happen to think they do.
Reza: “I thought PBS’s editorial standards are supposed to prevent political bias in news coverage?”
You must be new here.
Ombudsman? These guys can’t do anything but post a retraction on page 175 after the headline was on the front page. They might as well come to work drunk for all the good they do.
PBS is totally politically biased as anyone who listens for thirty seconds can detect. It’s MSM just like NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, MSNBC, the Washington Post, etc. It and they are all for the status quo. That’s all you need to know about them.
Eric: The problem with both your policy prescriptions for Iran is that they amount to the same thing: Iran’s government should take an action for which it receives no real benefit and for which it will incur real costs..
We’ve gone over the unilateral implementation of the AP, so I won’t belabor that here – if you don’t.
But the notion that Iran should allow the Green Movement to protest is on the same order and suffers from the exact same flaws.
Now personally, I can’t say anything. Because I’m an anarchist. I can’t sit here and say that Iran should allow free protests because if I take that position, then I have to go all the way and say that the entire Iran government should resign (as should the governments of the US, Russia, China, and the island of Tonga.)
So what? So I don’t make any such declaration. This is not my personal policy prescription for the government of Iran because my personal opinion is there should be no government of Iran or anywhere else. And the same applies to my policy prescription that Iran should not implement the AP unilaterally. The other difference is that the issue of Iran’s internal politics is irrelevant to me EXCEPT when it is being used as propaganda to justify war, whereas the other issue is directly related to that war possibility.
Instead, I point out to you that Iran’s government is what it is. And it’s not going to change any time soon despite what ignorant fanatics like Pak and agitators like Lucas want. And therefore there is no point in taking the point of view that Iran’s government should do anything other than what it is doing.
In other words, if you want to say that Iran should do what you suggest because that is your personal preference, that is fine. But if you suggest that it is in Iran’s best interests, then I say from the standpoint of the Iranian government it is not.
As Reza and others have pointed out, Iran is under attack. It considers the Green Movement, regardless of how many Iranian natives are involved in it, as a tool of the US and Israel. It’s the same attitude that Obama takes toward the US antiwar movement which is why the FBI spies on all these organizations and organizes SWAT raids on them periodically to seize their computers and hassle them for no legal reason whatsoever. As far as the government is concerned, if Mousavi isn’t a paid agent of the CIA, he might as well be. So why bother treating him any differently?
It is not a question of whether Iran can afford to show itself as “strong and unafraid of the Green Movement”, just as it is not a question of whether Iran can gain some PR benefit from unilaterally implementing the AP. The fact is that Iran will not get any significant benefit from doing either compared to what it will actually lose. It is much safer for Iran’s government to simply stomp on the Green Movement than to allow a seditious, foreign-backed movement aiming at overthrowing the democratically elected regime to possibly gain strength by any display of weakness on the part of the state.
This is not a position *I* endorse – it’s the rational position for Iran’s government to take under the circumstances. IF – I say again IF – I were in Khamenei’s shoes, I’d probably do the same thing. I would be saying to Mousavi, “You want to overthrow the government? Then you are the enemy.” And if there is one thing that is true, as Richard Marcinko once said, “Always treat your enemy as if he is your enemy, because he will invariably treat you that way.” So if I were Khamenei, I would be trying to screw Mousavi any way I can, secure that with less than 8% of the population wanting to screw me, this guy really can’t do anything but cause me a headache. So why should I put up with that headache? For some PR value? For whom? I’m ALREADY demonized by the entire Western world! Why should I allow these jokers to start at one level of unrest, which already draws attention to my demonization, then recruit more idiots as a result of their “success in defying me” to cause me even more headaches? I’m going to get demonized whether I stomp on them or not. If I let them babble, I get demonized. If I don’t let them babble, I get demonized. But if I don’t let them babble, I at least have some direct control over their actions, movements and initiative. I retain the initiative.
Iran is doing the right thing from their point of view. Your prescription simply would not do them any good just as your AP prescription won’t do them any good. And in both cases the costs to the regime would be higher than any possible PR benefit which has already flown the coop thanks to the bad intentions of their enemies.
It’s not even entirely an issue of maintaining security and order, as Reza says, although that IS part of the headache these people cause Khamenei.
It’s a matter of screwing with your enemy. This is how the real world works. You screw your enemy any way you can, whether it’s outside your own laws or not. The US does this. Israel does this. China does this. Russia does this. The EU does this. Iran might as well do it.
As Marcinko also points out, the only rule in SpecWar is that there are no rules. When someone is out to get you, you get them first, if you can.
This is not a democratic liberal playground where some people get to play by the rules while others are allowed to dance around them. This is realpolitik. You never fight with one hand – or worse, both – tied behind him. When, like Indie, someone pulls a sword on you, you pull a gun.
Iran did the right thing – again, strictly from IT’S viewpoint, NOT MINE – I’m sorry, I’ll read that AGAIN – strictly from IT’S viewpoint, NOT MINE – when it banned the protests.
Now I await the litany of idiots like Pak to step up and proclaim that I’m some sort of fake anarchist for siding with the Iranian government, despite two repetitions of “NOT MINE” (which makes 3 repetitions). Because idiots like Pak can’t read and don’t bother to try.
Pirouz,
How is it that PBS Frontline is serving as the mouthpiece for Kelly Niknejad’s “Tehran Bureau”, itself a manifest front for the green movement?
I thought PBS’s editorial standards are supposed to prevent political bias in news coverage? I emailed the ombudsman but he never replied.
Eric,
Regarding the Neda story, after the PBS Frontline piece aired on the subject, I attempted to contact the young Iranian doctor given asylum in Britain that was featured in the piece.
I wished to further examine his stories (he rendered different versions).
He never returned my queries.
Freedom of watching a speech American Clintonian style
As Clinton Spoke On Freedom Of Speech
Veteran Bloodied, Bruised and Arrested for Standing Silently
By Partnership for Civil Justice
February 17, 2011 “Justice On Line” – -As Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave her speech at George Washington University yesterday condemning governments that arrest protestors and do not allow free expression, 71-year-old Ray McGovern was grabbed from the audience in plain view of her by police and an unidentified official in plain clothes, brutalized and left bleeding in jail. She never paused speaking. Mr. McGovern, a veteran Army officer who also worked as a C.I.A. analyst for 27 years, was wearing a Veterans for Peace t-shirt.
Blind-sided by security officers who pounced upon him, Mr. McGovern remarked, as he was hauled out the door, “So this is America?” Mr. McGovern is covered with bruises, lacerations and contusions inflicted in the assault.
Mr. McGovern is being represented by the Partnership for Civil Justice Fund (PCJF). “It is the ultimate definition of lip service that Secretary of State Clinton would be trumpeting the U.S. government’s supposed concerns for free speech rights and this man would be simultaneously brutalized and arrested for engaging in a peaceful act of dissent at her speech,” stated attorney Mara Verheyden-Hilliard of the PCJF.
Mr. McGovern now works for Tell the Word, a publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in the Adams Morgan neighborhood of Washington, D.C.
Eric,
The media war against Iran is such that even if just one person came out onto the streets in support of the greens ,and burnt a photo of Ahmadinejad or Khamenei, he/she would be hailed as representing all of the people. But if millions came out in support of the IR then this would be dismissed as being the work of paid loyalists.
Astonishingly, this hypothetical situation is not far from the truth of the past week.
I agree with Article 27 of the IRI’s constitution. But I think that the right to freely protest must be tempered by respect for public order and national security.
Scott,
JohnH wrote:
“Almost sounds like a repeat of the Neda story. The Western media demonized Iran for her death. But as far as I know, nobody knows who done it.”
Scott,
I don’t think there is anyone who wasn’t sad that Neda was shot and killed. But, like JohnH, I’ve certainly seen no evidence whatsoever about responsibility for her death.
You have written a great deal about Neda. As you must have known, many people interpreted your writing as an accusation that the Iranian government was responsible, even though, as you also knew, there was no evidence of that.
In quiet moments, do you ever feel acknowledge to yourself that you exploited Neda’s death for political purposes? If so, does it bother you enough to apologize for it? It’s not too late, you know.
For something VERY on topic for this site, from Uskowi on Iran referencing a Wall Street Journal article:
New NIE on Iran
:http://uskowioniran.blogspot.com/2011/02/new-nie-on-iran.html
Quote
The new NIE, updating an older version prepared in 2007, says Iran likely has resumed work on nuclear weapons research in addition to its uranium enrichment program. The NIE, however, does not conclude that Iran has resumed a full-blown program to build the bomb [The Wall Street Journal, 17 February].
“The bottom line is that the intelligence community has concluded that there’s an intense debate inside the Iranian regime on the question of whether or not to move toward a nuclear bomb,” a US official told The Journal. “There’s a strong sense that a number of Iranian regime officials know that the sanctions are having a serious effect.”
An NIE is considered the consensus view of all US intelligence agencies. The director of National Intelligence reported the new assessment to Congress.
“We continue to assess Iran is keeping the option open to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons should it choose to do so,” National Intelligence Director James Clapper told the Senate Intelligence Committee. “We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons” [AP, 17 February].
End Quote
My interpretation of this is that they talk about “resuming research on nuclear weapons” as a sop to the “bomb Iran” crowd, then babble about how “the sanctions are working” as a sop to the antiwar crowd on the assumption that if the sanctions are stopping Iran from having a bomb (which is bullshit since Iran has no desire or need for one) then no war is needed.
I do note that they distinguish “research on a nuclear bomb” from a “full blown program to build a nuclear bomb.” I’ve been saying all along that if Iran EVER had ANY nuclear weapons program, it was merely a “due diligence” program by the military to learn HOW to build a bomb – NOT any leadership authorized program to develop and DEPLOY nuclear weapons.
Nonetheless, this NIE, wishy-washy though it is, once again clearly states that Iran does NOT have a nuclear weapons DEPLOYMENT program at this time which is precisely in line with what the IAEA reports in every one of its reports.
THERE IS NO PROGRAM!
thank you kooshy.
“Every breath brings fresher, fresher fruit from the garden.”
Arnold:
“I often find myself defending the Iranian regime from anything you criticize about it.”
I’d hesitate to flatter yourself as an unblinking defender of the “regime” (your term), or to cast me as a consistent critic; I consider myself mostly just the opposite. As you well know, I offer strong support for the Iranian government’s position on two key points on which it is relentlessly attacked by the US government and others: (1) Iran’s compliance with the NPT and its Safeguards Agreement; and (2) the government’s legitimacy and strong public support, as established by the 2009 election.
I “criticize” occasionally – though I prefer the phrase “suggest improvements” – because I think certain behavior prevents Iran from getting the full “bang for its buck” from its admirable efforts to (1) comply with the NPT and its Safeguards Agreement; and (2) establish its legitimacy through fair elections. On the nuclear issue, this translates to a suggestion that Iran expand its disclosures to match what other countries disclose, so that the US and other critics can no longer point out, as they now do every chance they get, that Iran refuses to do so. On the “legitimacy” issue, it translates to a suggestion that Iran allow peaceful protests – in part because that is the right thing to do, but in part because it enables the government to display its confidence that the vast majority of Iranians support it.
YOU ALSO WROTE:
“But I’d like to see your response to this in particular that I wrote to 25Bahman: But peaceful protests have played a role in removing a democratically elected politician from power before in 1953. An absolute right to peaceful protests comes close to being an absolute right for sufficiently resourceful outside forces to remove governments they disapprove of. How do you balance that, the fact that peaceful protests actually did play a role in overthrowing Mossedegh’s legitimate government.”
Of course peaceful protests pose a risk to a government. Protests may get out of hand and the government that allows them may be overthrown. And of course that risk is greater when outsiders are egging on the protesters for their own selfish reasons. For the sake of discussion, I’ll accept your observation that Mossadegh’s removal was caused in part by that, and I have no doubt that outsiders are egging on the Iranian opposition today.
Nor do I dispute that outright suppression of protests will keep the peace – for a while, at least. But not forever: ask Hosni Mubarak about that. Somehow or other, even if a government doesn’t care about its citizens’ rights to express themselves, it has its own selfish reasons to allow them to do so. If the government “just says no,” political life may be quite peaceful for a very long time – 30 years in the case of Egypt, for example – but maintaining that peace inevitably will require greater and greater repression, and eventually no amount of repression will be sufficient. If, on the other hand, the government allows peaceful protests, peace may be disrupted in the short term but the risk that the government will be overthrown is likely to be reduced. Every now and then, it might even get some good ideas, or at least learn that its own supporters see merit in a few opposition ideas, enabling the government to make adjustments to prevent an erosion of support down the road.
Certainly the Iranian government does not want a repeat of the violence that occurred after the 2009 election. But if the rules are laid down very clearly beforehand, and enforced very rigidly during the demonstrations, they don’t need to end up as they did then, and the government will get the credit it deserves for such a display of self-confidence – not to mention for doing the right thing.
A lasting consequence of the post-election protests in 2009 was a significant loss of support for the Greens. They had told the Iranian people the election had been stolen, and the people naturally assumed they’d provide evidence, not merely shout loudly but vaguely as they marched down the street. When they provided no evidence, most Iranians wrote them off. Had they been denied the opportunity, the Iranian people might have drawn just the opposite conclusion: that the Greens’ arguments must have merit or the government would not be trying so hard to keep the people from hearing them.
The Greens did not impress the Iranian people when they held rallies 20 months ago, nor 14 months ago. I’m not aware of any intervening event – are you? – that would make them any more impressive to the Iranian people this time. Why not let the Iranian people see that for themselves? They won’t take the government’s word for it, nor should they.
Hillary Clinton’s picture reminds me of her message of congratualion to Kosovan Prime Minister, Hashim Thaci yesterday. Thaci is a great lover of Israel. In a recent interview he told JTA: “I love Israel. What a great country. Kosovo is a friend of Israel. I met so many great leaders when I was there – Netanyahu, Sharon – I really admire them.”
However, JTA did not published Thaci’s sexual affair with Hillary’s predecessor Madeleine Albright (who boated his Jewish roots)….
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2011/02/18/kosova-israel-and-the-islamic-threat/
It was big news that someone got killed during demonstrations in Tehran. But what’s interesting is that they can’t figure out which side he was on. The government claims he was a martyr. But the opposition says he was a demonstrator.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110216/wl_afp/iranpoliticsunrest_20110216110101
Almost sounds like a repeat of the Neda story. The Western media demonized Iran for her death. But as far as I know, nobody knows who done it.
What seems clear is that the government, despite the hype of Western media, is not just going around killing people, as happened today in Bahrain and Yemen, both US allies.
With reference to the discussion of cyber technology and freedom in the last thread:
FBI To Announce Significant New Wiretap Push
Backdoors Galore In Everything From Skype To BitTorrent
:http://news.cnet.com/8301-31921_3-20032518-281.html
Guess they don’t want to be taken by surprise by the next revolution.
Which, by the way, may be in Wisconsin. From Twitter post:
Protest signs from the republic of Wisconsin: ‘I went to Iraq and came home to Egypt?’ #wiunion #wisconsin #egypt http://twitpic.com/40vkds
هر دم از این باغ بری میرسد تازه تر از تازه تری میر سد
Fiorangela sorry, this poem is by one of the greatest Persian poets Nizami Ganjavi, this poem like many other has become a daily used Persian proverb, often is used in a sarcastic way when you get continued unexpected surprising news.
In Persian “Baugh” (a working garden) is more like a gallery of artful vegetations, flowers and fruits that has to display /produce seasonally and all year around , “Baugh” is one the most important symbols of life for Persian literature
In Persian “Barr” means fruit which is the origin of the word that in English is berry
Now knowing that the translation that is used as a proverb is “
“With every breath arrives, a fresher, then fresh, fruit from this garden”
Or “every berth brings fresher then fresh fruit of this garden”
I hope Empty can help and save Nizami from my in justifiable translation, thanks in advance
Hasn’t the time arrived for the American people to confront the wrongdoing of their government, much as people in the Middle East are confronting the wrongdoing of their governments?
It’s great that Americans are celebrating the toppling of dictators in the Middle East. But my question is:
When are Americans going to be become as angry and outraged over their own government’s support of dictatorships as the people who have had to suffer under such dictatorships?
Once it became clear that Egypt’s dictator Hosni Mubarak was on the way out, U.S. officials quickly shifted gears and took the side of the demonstrators, the people who had suffered for 30 years under the brutal Mubarak dictatorship. U.S. officials even offered their guidance for moving Egypt toward a democratic political system.
Of course, all this pro-democracy hoopla was designed to disguise the fact that the U.S. government has been the prime partner and enabler of this brutal dictatorship for the entire 30 years under which the Egyptian people have suffered. It has been the U.S. government that has been providing the $60 billion in U.S. taxpayer money to Mubarak and his henchmen in the Egyptian military and secret police. It has been the U.S. government that has been paying the salaries of Egypt’s jailors and torturers for the past three decades. It is the U.S. military that has been training the Egyptian military.
In fact, it’s actually worse than that. Believe it or not, U.S. officials actually cut a deal with Egypt’s torturers to torture people on behalf of the U.S. government
Where’s the American Outrage Against U.S. Support of Dictatorships?
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27502.htm
Scott,
So, you didn’t manage to come up with a figure outside of Tehran and yet you mock my own assessment? I think that says everything about you.
Why were there zero reports, videos or even mention of demos in many cities across Iran on Monday? This was supposed to be a big day for everyone to bravely take to the streets in defiance of the government. It just did not happen.
Do you even pay attention to Iran outside of Tehran and the metropolitan areas.
Is there a vibrant “green movement” in cities like Delijam, Lalehjin, Nishapour, Dezful, Mehran, Behbahan, Sari, Shahroud, Nowhshahr, Zabol, Qazvin etc etc….
Maybe Enduring American’s nest of spies are not so great, after all.
Lucas: “With a low enough standard for evidence and analysis, you can also conclude up is down, black is white, and the Moon is made of Green (heretical) cheese…”
We defer to your expertise in such endeavors.
Lucas: “You missed the point of the comment”
Not for an instant. You’re trying to establish that the mere presence of X people on the street means “X times Y” people at home, ergo the Green Movement has significance.
The polls say you’re wrong. And the”point” is not a “point”, it’s propaganda.
“(Surely an anarchist would want to work carefully with that line of analysis?)
Dude, your knowledge of anarchism is as limited as the rest of your intellectual honesty.
“This process has been powerfully established over the last two months.”
Are you referring to Egypt or Iran? In the former, perhaps. In the latter, no. The paltriness of the street protests in Iran show the Green Movement has lost momentum, not gained any – not since 2009 certainly. Maybe Egypt has stimulated a slight resurgence recently – that wouldn’t be surprising. But it’s still not significant.
More likely, Egypt was seized on by Mousavi to rouse the more fanatical of his followers with the intent of causing enough trouble via a riot to motivate more to come out – exactly as you’d like to think. Which means you and Mousavi think alike. Which is not much to either of your credit.
“Which is not to say that it will happen in Iran, just to consider all aspects of the situation, not just those which suit a particular political stance.”
You mean, as long as such consideration advances your particular political stance.
And the REAL point of ALL your comments here is once again to demonize Iran for the purpose of justifying regime change, which, again, since you know the Green Movement can never do it, will have to be done by a US military attack.
Once again, deny that is your motivation and I’ll call you a liar.
Scott,
Thanks for getting back to me. I was characterizing the unrest on 25 Bahman as a student rebellion, not general discontent postulated beyond scientifically derived public opinion polls.
I admit, I am reliant on the observable evidence at hand, scientifically derived public opinion polls and objective analyses.
That said, if this reliance produced reversed results, I would be making different determinations. And I remind you, I am a more liberal Iranian voter.
Reza,
“I have concluded it was no more than 1,000 across the entire country bar the capital.”
That’s cool. With a low enough standard for evidence and analysis, you can also conclude up is down, black is white, and the Moon is made of Green (heretical) cheese….
S.
RSH,
“If they aren’t on the street, they don’t count in a revolution.”
You missed the point of the comment which was the circumstances under which people who — sharing discontent with and opposition to a government — choose to move from latent support to open participation. (Surely an anarchist would want to work carefully with that line of analysis?)
This process has been powerfully established over the last two months. Which is not to say that it will happen in Iran, just to consider all aspects of the situation, not just those which suit a particular political stance.
S.
Lucas: “Many people may be discontented with the regime and may even support the challenge, but will not come out on the streets in a repressive environment.”
Same line Pak used.
If they aren’t on the street, they don’t count in a revolution. That’s the rule. They may count in elections, but not in a revolution. People on the street count when it comes to protests and revolutions. Period.
And if they aren’t THERE, they CAN’T be counted – or counted ON.
You are correct that students usually lead the way. That’s been true in most revolutions going back at least to Paris 1968 and probably the Russian revolution and beyond. Students first, then labor, the the middle class.
But without the latter two, the students are useless – as was proved in Paris 1968.
R S Hack,
Yes, some of the political agitation in Bahrain comes from religious conservatives who want to keep women “suppressed”. And others who object to underwear from being aired on laundry lines. And others who want better economic opportunities etc for the Shia community. I imagine some of this overlaps.
Reza Esfandiari says:
February 17, 2011 at 5:42 pm
I recall a panel discussion soon after the riots in 2009 where Dr. Mirandi responded to one of the panelists who was assuring everyone of Iranian government’s eminent downfall. Mirandi said these academics who come up with such bold predictions should be held academically accountable in a year’s time when their predictions come to naught.
I wonder what is Scott’s latest prediction, and is it worth the paper it is written on. Is his, an academic execize, or some green hobby he is foisting on people with short memories.
The popular protests in Tunisia and Egypt are in the process of being hijacked by the US-Israel-France-British axis of evil. America and Britain cannot afford to loose its Saudi cash-cow. Where it remains a kingdom or become a republic – Saudi Arabia will remain a wester puppets. Only an Iranian-style Islamic revolution can free Saudi Arabia and the rest of Muslim countries from Judeo-Christian imperialism.
Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia, Pakistan, Iraq, Morocco, Algeria, Indonesia, etc. don’t have dedicated Muslim leadership.
Bahrain, like Yemen will boil and then simmered down. As Senator Joe Lieberman said last year – Nex Zionist’s target will be Yemen.
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2010/01/03/lieberman-yemen-will-be-tomorrows-war/
Scott,
Have you finished your headcount for the number of demonstrators outside Tehran on Monday?
I have concluded it was no more than 1,000 across the entire country bar the capital.
Hardly a “rebellion” of any kind…just more evidence that the GM has disappeared in the provinces.
Reza,
I quite agree Iran would prefer that US bases in Qatar and Bahrain be closed. However, I think normal relations could be achieved between Iran and the US, without closure of those bases.
Richard Steven Hack says:
February 17, 2011 at 4:07 pm
BiBiJiob: “what can the U.S. role be post-Falujah?”
“Well. since the US is happy to do to almost anyone what it did to Fallujah, I’d say the role hasn’t changed, from the US point of view.”
Richard, that’s my drift exactly. Whether or not that is how the U.S. intended it, the people of the region, bombarded with pictures and videos of atrocities, have come to view themselves not as members of any particular social,ethnic or regious class, but as primarily Fellujians.
That unification of 300 million people creates an unprecedented challenge for the U.S. Who exactly are you going to divide against whom?
That must be where the obcession with Iran kicks into high gear. Except that it is a last ditch attempt and unlikely to work. Because it is not about Iran, Turky, shi’a or anything indigenous to the region. It is a viceral attitude towards outsiders, I think.
Pirouz,
Pirouz,
Apologies for not replying to your comment re protest on previous thread — especially given its implosion from anything resembling a discussion of key points — as I have tied up with coverage of events including Bahrain and Libya.
One quick point: even if it is students on the streets — and there were far more than students on the streets on Monday — that does not necessarily make this a “student rebellion”. Many people may be discontented with the regime and may even support the challenge, but will not come out on the streets in a repressive environment.
If students are able to show that opposition can be sustained, then those people may be prompted to move from latent support for the challenge to more active participation. That happened in the US in the ’60s and has happened to some extent in Tunisia and Egypt in the last two months.
To take this further, one of the best comments was from the person who observed that key economic groups, including bazaaris, had not come out in opposition. I think that’s right — Setareh Sabety made a similar point in a sharp analysis of 25 Bahman — which would point to the significance of Iran’s economic development in the near-future for the political challenge.
Best,
S.
kooshy – Is UN a country where Shias live?
What about Lebanon with 60% Shia population or Pakistan with 15% Shia population or India with a 10% Shia population or Bosnia with 20% Shia population or Turkey with 5% shia population, etc, etc.?
If some want to believe that ayatollah Khaminie or Iran has no support in Bahrain, they should look in Lebanon or Iraq for model and ask themselves if a majority shieh community is living in a small island country, that is ruled by a minority suni government, where should this shieh community look for the best long term and most reliable support, take a pick
1-Saudi Arabia
2-Iraq
3-USA
4-Iran
5-UN
http://www.daylife.com/photo/002Tf7mgNFfN7
John H, @ 5:05 –
agreed.
so what will Israel’s next move be? Will Bibi’s govt fall?
ah hah, kooshy; with online translators ANYONE can read farsi.
the poem at 4:08pm –
“Every moment of Barry Mir Bagh Dam New Dam Mir more than just”
“Iran, on the other hand, should do just fine.”
Agreed. The unrest across the Arab world precludes any US military adventurism, at least short term. The blowback from any Israeli pogrom on its neighbors or US attack would include the toppling of more US allies.
The US security agenda has reached its limit and is now proving itself counterproductive.
{In 1970, Iran laid claim to Bahrain and the other Persian Gulf islands. However, in an agreement with the United Kingdom it agreed “not to pursue” its claims on Bahrain if its other claims were realized.}
http://www.parstimes.com/history/mishmahig.html
{In 1830 Sheikh Abdul Al Khalifeh declared dependence to the Iranian Government as the Egyptian Mohammad Pasha who took away Arabian Peninsula from Vahhabis on behalf of the Ottoman Empire wanted to know if the people of Bahrain are not in allegiance with Iran, they would ruled by him.
In 1860 the Government of Al Khalifeh repeated the same assertion when the British were trying to overpower Bahrain. Sheikh Mohammad Ben Khalifeh at that time wrote a letter to Nasseredian Shah declaring himself and his brother and all of members of Al Khalifeh and the people of Bahrain to be of Iranian subjects, and in another letter to the Iranian Foreign Minster, Sheikh Mohammad demanded from the Government of Iran to be directly guided and protected in the face of British pressure.}
Considering the continued unfolding events of the last few weeks, this Persian poem may become handy for Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama, or even for the good old boys at the agency in charge of the Middle East portfolio
هر دم از این باغ بری میر سد تازه تر از تازه تری میر سد
BiBiJiob: “what can the U.S. role be post-Falujah?”
Well. since the US is happy to do to almost anyone what it did to Fallujah, I’d say the role hasn’t changed, from the US point of view.
What may have changed is what the people in the ME are going to do about it, however. But we don’t know yet, because Iraq hasn’t dumped the rest of the US military yet, Lebanon is still getting organized under Hizballah, and Egypt and perhaps Bahrain are just getting started. My guess is if and/or when all these places get their act together, the US is going to find itself without much support anywhere in the ME except Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Iran, on the other hand, should do just fine.
Here’s another important point about Bahrain. Since it is a major trading center, and currently presumably is supporting the UN sanctions on Iran, if a majoritypro-Iranian Shia government takes over there, the sanctions go out the window – and Iran now has a major ME financial center at its disposal to do deals with and through.
So unless the US decides to impose sanctions on Bahrain and cut Bahrain off from the world’s financial system, Iran will be able to neuter a significant part, perhaps all, of the US/UN sanctions.
That gives Iran even less reason to concern itself about negotiating with the US over its nuclear energy program.
Liz says:
February 17, 2011 at 3:47 pm
I’ve been to Bahrain. They love Ayatollah Khamenei.
and Ahmadinejad too.
I have also been there , I think everyone speaks Farsi , even the passport officers in the airport…
Interesting history in Wikipedia:
“In 899 AD, a millenarian Ismaili sect, the Qarmatians, seized the country and sought to create a utopian society based on reason and the distribution of all property evenly among the initiates. The Qarmatians caused disruption throughout the Islamic world; they collected tribute from the caliph in Baghdad, and in 930 AD sacked Mecca and Medina, bringing the sacred Black Stone back to their base in Ahsa, in medieval Bahrain where it was held to ransom. According to the historian Al-Juwayni, the Stone was returned twenty-two years later, in 951, under mysterious circumstances; wrapped in a sack, it was thrown into the Friday mosque of Kufa accompanied by a note saying “By command we took it, and by command we have brought it back.” The Black Stone’s abduction and removal caused further damage, breaking the stone into seven pieces.[9][13][14] The Qarmatians were defeated in 976 AD by the Abbasids.”
I’ve read about the Ismailis before. These guys were the original “Assassins”. Some fascinating stuff around about them.
Also, as usual, Wikipedia says the Al Khalifa family started out as bandits and pirates. Big surprise – this is how states always start. Eventually they got control of the area buttressed by a deal with Britain, but also by a long series of negotiations with various sections of the population.
The place was a trading hub and wealthy even before oil was found. It also attracted merchant families from Persia and even India.
In the 20th Century, there followed a major push by Britain to change the country as described thus:
Quote
“Bahrain underwent a period of major social reform between 1926 and 1957, under the de facto rule of Charles Belgrave, the British advisor to Shaikh Hamad ibn Isa Al-Khalifa (1872-1942). The country’s first modern school was established in 1919, with the opening of the Al-Hiddaya Boys School, while the Arab Persian Gulf’s first girls’ school opened in 1928. The American Mission Hospital, established by the Dutch Reform Church, began work in 1903. Other reforms include the abolition of slavery, while the pearl diving industry developed at a rapid pace.
These reforms were often opposed vigorously by powerful groups within Bahrain including sections within the ruling family, tribal forces, the religious authorities and merchants. In order to counter conservatives, the British removed the Emir, Isa bin Ali Al Khalifa, replacing him with his son in 1923. Some Sunni tribes such as the al Dossari were forcibly removed from Bahrain and sent to mainland Arabia, while clerical opponents of social reforms were exiled to Saudi and Iran, and the heads of some merchant and notable families were likewise exiled. Britain’s interest in pushing Bahrain’s development was motivated by concerns about Saudi-Wahabbi and Iranian ambitions.
Oil was discovered in 1932 and brought rapid modernization to Bahrain. This discovery made relations with the United Kingdom closer, as evidenced by the British establishing more bases there. British influence would continue to grow as the country developed, culminating with the appointment of Charles Belgrave as an advisor;[41] Belgrave established modern education systems in Bahrain.[41] After World War II, increasing anti-British sentiment spread throughout the Arab World and led to riots in Bahrain. The riots focused on the Jewish community, which counted among its members distinguished writers and singers, accountants, engineers and middle managers working for the Oil Company, textile merchants with business all over the peninsula, and free professionals.
In 1948, following rising hostilities and looting,[42] most members of Bahrain’s Jewish community abandoned their properties and evacuated to Bombay, later settling in Israel (Pardes Hanna-Karkur) and the United Kingdom. As of 2008, 37 Jews remained in the country.[42] The issue of compensation was never settled. In 1960, the United Kingdom put Bahrain’s future to international arbitration and requested that the United Nations Secretary-General take on this responsibility.
In 1970, Iran laid claim to Bahrain and the other Persian Gulf islands. However, in an agreement with the United Kingdom it agreed “not to pursue” its claims on Bahrain if its other claims were realized. The following plebiscite saw Bahrainis confirm their Arab identity and independence from Britain. Bahrain to this day remains a member of the Arab League and Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf. Bahrain formally declared its independence on the 15th of August, 1971,[3][43] marked by the signing of a friendship treaty with the British that terminated previous agreements between the two sides on the same day.[3][4]
The oil boom of the 1970s greatly benefited Bahrain, but its downturn hurt. However, the country had already begun to diversify its economy, and had benefited from the Lebanese Civil War that began in the 1970s; Bahrain replaced Beirut as the Middle East’s financial hub as Lebanon’s large banking sector was driven out of the country by the war.[44] After the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran, Bahraini Shī’a fundamentalists in 1981 orchestrated a failed coup attempt under the auspices of a front organization, the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain. The coup would have installed a Shī’a cleric exiled in Iran, Hujjatu l-Islām Hādī al-Mudarrisī, as supreme leader heading a theocratic government.[45] In 1994, a wave of rioting by disaffected Shīa Islamists was sparked by women’s participation in a sporting event.
During the mid-1990s, the Kingdom was badly affected by sporadic violence between the government and the cleric-led opposition in which over forty people were killed.[46] In March 1999, King Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifah succeeded his father as head of state and instituted elections for parliament, gave women the right to vote, and released all political prisoners. These moves were described by Amnesty International as representing an “historic period of human rights”.[47] As part of the adoption of the National Action Charter on February 14, 2002, Bahrain changed its formal name from the State (dawla) of Bahrain to the Kingdom of Bahrain.
Bahrain is a absolute monarchy headed by the King, Shaikh Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa; the head of government is the Prime Minister, Shaikh Khalīfa bin Salman al Khalifa, who presides over a cabinet of twenty-five members, where 80% of its members are from the royal family. Bahrain has a bicameral legislature with a lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, elected by universal suffrage and an upper house, the Shura Council, appointed by the king. Both houses have forty members. The first round of voting in the 2006 parliamentary election took place on 25 November 2006, and in the second round Islamists hailed a huge election victory.[49]
The opening up of politics has seen big gains for both Shīa and Sunnī Islamists in elections, which have given them a parliamentary platform to pursue their policies. This has meant parties launching campaigns to impose bans on female mannequins displaying lingerie in shop windows,[50] and the hanging of underwear on washing lines.[51]
Analysts of democratization in the Middle East cite the Islamists’ references to respect for human rights in their justification for these programmes as evidence that these groups can serve as a progressive force in the region. Islamist parties have been particularly critical of the government’s readiness to sign international treaties such as the United Nation’s International Convention on Civil and Political Rights.[52] At a parliamentary session in June 2006 to discuss ratification of the Convention, Sheikh Adel Mouwda, the former leader of salafist party, Asalah, explained the party’s objections: “The convention has been tailored by our enemies, God kill them all, to serve their needs and protect their interests rather than ours. This why we have eyes from the American Embassy watching us during our sessions, to ensure things are swinging their way”.[53]
Both Sunnī and Shī’a Islamists suffered a setback in March 2006 when 20 municipal councillors, most of whom represented religious parties, went missing in Bangkok on an unscheduled stopover when returning from a conference in Malaysia.[54] After the missing councillors eventually arrived in Bahrain they defended their stay at the Radisson Hotel in Bangkok, telling journalists it was a “fact-finding mission”, and explaining: “We benefited a lot from the trip to Thailand because we saw how they managed their transport, landscaping and roads”.[55] Bahraini liberals have responded to the growing power of religious parties by organizing themselves to campaign through civil society in order to defend basic personal freedoms from being legislated away. In November 2005, al Muntada, a grouping of liberal academics, launched “We Have A Right”, a campaign to explain to the public why personal freedoms matter and why they need to be defended.
The near total dominance of religious parties in elections has given a new prominence to clerics within the political system, with the most senior Shia religious leader, Sheikh Isa Qassim, playing what’s regarded as an extremely important role; according to one academic paper, “In fact, it seems that few decisions can be arrived at in Al Wefaq – and in the whole country, for that matter – without prior consultation with Isa Qassim, ranging from questions with regard to the planned codification of the personal status law to participation in elections.[61]
End Quotes
The economic situation is described thus:
Quote
In a region experiencing an oil boom, Bahrain has the fastest growing economy in the Arab world, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia found in January 2006.[64] Bahrain also has the freest economy in the Middle East according to the 2011 Index of Economic Freedom published by the Heritage Foundation/Wall Street Journal, and is tenth freest overall in the world.[65]
In 2008, Bahrain was named the world’s fastest growing financial center by the City of London’s Global Financial Centres Index.[64][64] Bahrain’s banking and financial services sector, particularly Islamic banking, have benefited from the regional boom.[64] In Bahrain, petroleum production and processing account for about 60% of export receipts, 60% of government revenues, and 30% of GDP.
Economic conditions have fluctuated with the changing fortunes of oil since 1985, for example, during and following the Persian Gulf crisis of 1990–91. With its highly developed communication and transport facilities, Bahrain is home to multinational firms. A large share of exports consists of petroleum products made from imported crude oil. Construction proceeds on several major industrial projects. In 2004, Bahrain signed the US-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement, which will reduce certain barriers to trade between the two nations.[66]
Unemployment, especially among the young, and the depletion of both oil and underground water resources are major long-term economic problems. In 2008, the jobless figure was a 4%,[67] but women are over represented at 85% of the total.[68] Bahrain in 2007 became the first Arab country to institute unemployment benefits as part of a series of labour reforms instigated under Minister of Labour, Dr. Majeed Al Alawi.[69]
End Quotes
Demographics are described thus:
Quote
In 2010, Bahrain’s population grew to 1.234 million, out of which more than 666,172 (54%) were non-nationals[5], up from 1.05 million (517,000 non-nationals) in 2008.[72] Though majority of the population is ethnically Arab, a sizable number of people from South Asia live in the country. In 2008, approximately 290,000 Indian nationals lived in Bahrain, making them the single largest expatriate community in the country.[73]
The official religion of Bahrain is Islam, which the majority of the population practices. However, due to an influx of immigrants and guest workers from non-Muslim countries, such as India, Philippines and Sri Lanka,[74] the overall percentage of Muslims in the country has declined in recent years. According to the 2001 census, 81.2% of Bahrain’s population was Muslim, 9% were Christian, and 9.8% practiced Hinduism and other religions.[1] There are no official figures for the proportion of Shia and Sunni among the Muslims of Bahrain. Unofficial sources, such as the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office, estimate it to be approximately 33% Sunni and 66% Shia.
End Quotes
It’s military is described thus:
Quote
The kingdom has a small but well equipped military called the Bahrain Defense Force (BDF). The BDF is primarily equipped with United States equipment, such as the F16 Fighting Falcon, F5 Freedom Fighter, UH60 Blackhawk, M60A3 tanks, and the ex-USS Jack Williams, an Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate renamed the RBNS Sabha. The Government of Bahrain has a cooperative agreement with the United States Military and has provided the United States a base in Juffair since the early 1990s. This is the home of the headquarters for Commander, United States Naval Forces Central Command (COMUSNAVCENT) / United States Fifth Fleet (COMFIFTHFLT), and about 1500 United States and coalition military personnel.[81]
End Quote
I’ve been to Bahrain. They love Ayatollah Khamenei.
One of the regional issues I seldom see discussed here is a sense of rage among peoples of the region. We are all familiar with the laudry list of events: 9/11 and the west holding up bin Laden as the personification of Islam, Afghanistan, Bagram, Guantanemo, abuGhraib, Fallujah, Lebanon 2006, Gaza 2008/9, etc.
In all the textbook rationalizations e.g. underperforming economies, repressive regimes, etc. few are talking about the reality of a region that docilely endured their lot for decades until neoconservative PNAC notions of America’s role in the world made landfall on their heads after 2001 making life literally unbearble for the people of the region.
So, I ask not what the U.S. role will be post-Mubarak. But I ask what can the U.S. role be post-Falujah?
JohnH: “It will indeed interesting to watch Obama twist himself into knots, publicly advocating democracy while privately backing the US security state, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.”
He’s good at that, though – lying through his teeth with equanimity and a self-assured smile. And the MSM will be supporting him all the way, spinning everything the way Obama and Clinton want it spun.
I suspect because the protesters are mostly Shia that the immediate tactic will be to blame Iran for “trying to export its revolution outside its borders”, or even that old saw, “sponsoring terrorism against a US ally”. As long as the MSM ignore the presence of Sunni protesters, this might fly.
It might even give the US an excuse to apply its local (i.e., Persian Gulf) military force in support of the government in some way, on an intelligence level if not directly militarily. The Saudis will certainly be demanding the US support the government more directly than it did Mubarak.
Please read my last post in the previous thread wherein I eliminate Pak from any further consideration here.
Now on to more important things.
If Bahrain is 70% Shia, then the questions obviously devolve down to: what kind of oppressive force can the regime bring to bear in comparison to what Egypt did against its protesters? Does Bahrain have the military force to constrain the protesters short of a massacre like Egypt’s Army did? What is the relationship of the Bahrain military to the government itself? Would Saudi Arabia attempt to intervene militarily? How are the protesters organized? Do they have leaders? Do they have savvy students, union leaders, the equivalent of the Muslim Brotherhood, any functional politicians like El Baradei in Egypt? What is the status of any external support?
That’s off the top of my head, In other words, where CAN the protests go from here? What ARE the viable options for the government and the protesters?
Obama’s pro-democracy PR blitz gets hijacked by reality: Bahrain. Mark Landler, writing in the NYT, points out that “For the second time in two weeks violence has broken out in a restive Arab ally of the United States, confronting the Obama administration with the question of how harshly to condemn a friendly leader who is resisting street protests against his government…criticism would be an even sharper break for the United States than it was in the case of Egypt, since just two months ago Washington was holding up Bahrain as a model of reform for the region.
What the administration does with Bahrain is likely to be a telling indicator of how it will deal with the balance between protecting its strategic interests, and promoting democracy — a balance some critics said it never properly struck in its sometimes awkward response to the Egyptian turmoil. What will make this diplomatic maneuvering even more complicated is Bahrain’s proximity to Saudi Arabia, another Sunni monarchy with even greater strategic value to the United States.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast/18diplomacy.html?_r=1&hp
It will indeed interesting to watch Obama twist himself into knots, publicly advocating democracy while privately backing the US security state, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.
Arnold,
Unlike in Egypt, some progress has already been made. But Shia-majority rule would bring Bahrain closer to Iran. Many Bahrainis are themselves of Iranian origin – and are religiously conservative.
The fact that tanks are out on the streets shows that the regime is worried.
Protests are planned in Algeria, Yemen, Morocco and Libya tomorrow.
Apparently Qaddafi is using helicopter gunships to disperse crowds according to unconfirmed reports.
James,
Even before the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, Iranian officials were talking about the need to close the bases in Bahrain and Qatar.
The presence of the 5th fleet is seen as a threat by Iran ,and in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf, “incidents” could happen.
Iran sees all of these U.S bases as part of a “military belt” encircling it.
I’m just as hesitant so think Bahrain may become democratic as I was last month that Egypt might. It’s almost too much to hope.
Reza,
I think Iran would accept US retention of bases in Bahrain and Qatar. But all US bases in Iraq and Afghanistan need to be closed.
Challenging demographics, to be sure. But foolish efforts of some of the crowd in Washington, to play up a Sunni-Shia confrontation, do not help.
Btw, the 5th fleet only resumed its presence in the *Persian* gulf in 1995 after a 50 year hiatus.
If Iran-U.S rapprochement is to succeed, the fleet has to be withdrawn.
Better to forget about holding on to the base. It is a liability.
Bahrain is bad, but protests are even taking place in Iraqi Kurdistan
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12493712
The struggle for reform in Manama is, however, very old.