Tomorrow, January 16, is the 31st anniversary of Shah Reza Pahlavi’s abdication and departure from Iran. To mark the occasion, we bring to our readers’ attention a compellingly sober Op Ed, “Regime Change in Tehran? Don’t Bet on It”, published in Asia Times on January 14 by the veteran journalist and author Dilip Hiro. The bottom-line conclusion—that the Islamic Republic of Iran is not imploding—is close to the fundamental take-away from our own Op Ed, “Another Iranian Revolution? Not Likely”, published in The New York Times on January 6. But Dilip Hiro devotes more of his analysis than we did to comparing the dynamics that propelled the Iranian revolution of 1978-1979 to current conditions “on the ground” in the Islamic Republic. In this regard, he pointedly draws the parallels (or lack thereof) between the revolution that overthrow Shah Reza Pahlavi 31 years ago and political events and prospects today.
In February 1979, the autocratic monarchy of the shah collapsed when the country’s economy ground to a halt due to strikes not only by the religiously observant merchants of the bazaar, but also by civil servants, factory employees, and (crucially) leftist oil workers. At the same time, the foundations of the modern state—the armed forces, special forces, armed police, intelligence agencies, and the state-controlled media—all cracked.
The street demonstrations, launched in October 1977 by Iranian intellectuals and professionals to protest human-rights violations by SAVAK, the shah’s brutal secret police, lacked both focus and an overarching set of coherent demands articulated by a towering personality. That changed when Khomeini, a virulently anti-shah ayatollah exiled to neighboring Iraq for 14 years, was drawn into the process in January 1978. From then on, the ranks of the protestors swelled exponentially…
Now, the foremost question for Iran specialists ought to be: over the past six months have significant numbers of residents from downscale south Tehran, with its six million people, joined the protest? Going by the images on the Internet and Western TV channels, the answer is “no”. South Tehranis do not wear fashionable jeans, and any protesting women would appear veiled from head to toe and without noticeable make-up.
It is South Tehran that contains the Grand Bazaar, covering eight kilometers of warren-like alleyways and more than a dozen mosques. That bazaar is the commercial backbone of the nation, with its intricately woven strands of trade, Islamic culture, and politics. Its lead is followed by all the other bazaars of Iran. Because Prophet Mohammad was a merchant, there has been a symbiotic relationship between the commercial class and the mosque from the early days of Islam. Iran is no exception, and the importance of the bazaar’s influence still cannot be overestimated. After all, it was barely a century ago that oil was first found in the country, while industrialization gained a foothold only after World War II. So, have bazaar merchants begun to shut their shops in solidarity with the protestors—as they did during the anti-shah movement? No again…
The attempts of today’s opposition leaders to emulate Khomeini’s example have not succeeded, chiefly because their camp lacks a religious leader of his stature. The near-fatal blow that Khomeini struck at the shah’s regime lay in the fatwa (edict) he issued decreeing that firing on unarmed protestors was equivalent to firing at a copy of the holy Koran. Most of the shah’s soldiers, being Shi’ite and often young conscripts, accepted Khomeini’s interpretation. Many of them had already lost faith in their commanders after bank employees revealed, in September 1978, that top army officers had been transferring vast sums abroad. Little wonder that, by the time the shah left Iran in January 1979, the army’s strength had plummeted from 300,000 to just over 100,000, mainly due to desertions.
By contrast, there is little evidence so far that the present regime’s security forces—the heavily indoctrinated Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Basij militia, or the armed police—are vacillating when ordered to break up demonstration with force. On its part, the regime, aware of the danger of creating martyrs and of the historical precedent, has taken care to make minimal use of live fire in dispersing protesting crowds. During the 12 months of the revolutionary movement that stretched from 1978 into 1979, the indiscriminate use of live fire by the shah’s regime led to between 10,000—the government figure—and 40,000—the opposition’s statistic—deaths. In the six months of the street protest this time around, the total, according to the opposition, is 106.
The whole article is worth a read. And thanks for continuing to read us.
–Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett
Bobzee:
as for your first paragraph; I didn’t mean that the young people are in the streets for having sex.it’s actually more complicated than that. it’s an accumulated anger, that gets most of its energy from satellites and internet materials coming from abroad, in which sexuality looms high (I am not denying that there is also another important direction which is IR’s mistreatment and faults).
for your second paragraph, you need to read Iran’s modern history in more detail and from different perspectives. it’s not difficult to find an anarchical situation created by the first presumably democrat people.however, that doesn’t justify an authoritarian state. I meant, the sings coming out of this movement shows that history can easily be repeated.
Tehran,
I find this argument that the young people are out there chanting against the government all for the sake of wearing miniskirts and having sexual freedom to be completely disingenuous. You claim you’re from Iran and are there right now. Then you know about all the sex, partying and drugs that take place. And NOT just among middle-class and rich kids. And the fact that this is all forbidden probably makes these activities far more enjoyable. So, there must be other motivations that are leading people to risk their livelihood on the streets, such as unemployment. Claiming these people are just out there for ’sex’ is just another attempt at discrediting a movement which began more than a decade before these elections. And it clearly shows what side you’re on.
Now, you claim this movement can lead to further instability. How exactly? Will the green movement lead to more torturing, rape and murder? More political arrests? More corruption? More assassinations? More repression? More money sent to Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis? Are these the demands of the green movement? Will they form a paramilitary group that walks around stabbing people, breaking into peoples homes, dragging the wounded from the hospitals, destroying property? Will they form a pseudo-military which muscles its way into all areas of business, makes threats against its own people, involves itself into governmental affairs, owns illegal ports and smuggles goods? Will they form a government which doesn’t even follow its own constitution, and has ambiguous laws in regards to how long prisoners can be kept, search and seizure, amongst other things? So, how will the greens lead to more lawlessness?
Bobzee:
I still think the term “so sol” is a well said world. anyone familiar with the feelings of Iranian youth would accept that for them (this upper middle class segment of Iranian youth), the greatest motivation is “sexuality”, but not liberal democracy! it sounds a bizarre claim, I know, but that is the fact made by three decades of Islamic Republic’s mistakes. mistakes like mandatory Hejab that is continuing to be the case to these days. the reformists are dead wrong if they think this young people are their followers. the reformists themself suffer from the lack of a clear ideology let alone these innocent young people who are vastly illiterate politically. if your dream is really “seeing an Iran where people aren’t arrested, raped, tortured and murdered based on their political beliefs. Where everyone gets an equal opportunity to succeed…”, unfortunately this is not the promising movement, and their advancement would definitely make the state of lawlessness more probable.
Tehran,
Nothing is worse than someone who has clearly shown his bias, yet claims he is impartial. What realities are you talking about? You call most of the young greens ’so-sols’ and consider this part of your “facts on the ground”?
You claim most Iranians are unhappy, yet you or these disgruntled non-greens offer absolutely no solutions to the poor handing of the economy, repression, lawlessness and massive corruption of the IRGC and boyads. All you can do is call people ’so-sol’ for trying to change the status quo.
My dream is seeing an Iran where people aren’t arrested, raped, tortured and murdered based on their political beliefs. Where everyone gets an equal opportunity to succeed and not preferential treatment because they joined some violent militia. Whether this happens under the banner of an Islamic Republic or Republic is irrelevant.
Bobzee:
I have said what I was watching in Iran as the facts on the ground. I did not take any one’s side. if you want to be always in your dream of not seeing IR in power (as it seems you have already made such a psychological situation for yourself), that’s a different story and I have no comment for that.
Currently traveling between Miami and Florida, reading this on my Iphone. Will read it in full when I get back, and I will also post a backlink on my website. Thanks.
“In other cities, obviously the situation is in the opposite direction as Tehran.”
How different? Did you see the pictures of the protests in Isfahan on the June 15th? What about mashaad? Or ghazvin? How are they any different than Tehran, except for that fact that its easier to be identified due to the smaller population.
“indeed, most of the young people in the green movement are seen here as “so sol”!”
Talk about a gross generalization and mis-characterization of the the movement. Seen by WHO as ’so sol’? What kind of “so sol” openly protests against a government that has tortured, raped and killed political opposition since its conception? What kind of “so sol” chants “Death to Khameini”, and attacks the basij who are firing their guns on them. Aslan in harfa meehzane. It seems like you’re flipping through a few pictures of these guys with stylish hair and clothes, and automatically tag them as “so-sol”. Go look at the protester photos during the revolution. and you’ll see plenty of ’so sols’ wearing stylish western clothes who fought against the Shah.
“one can’t talk to them easily as many of them even don’t listen.in many cases, they just say their words, turn to insult and go; no time for argument.”
You know, you pretty much described the government. Closing down newspapers. Beating and arresting the opposition with impunity. Threatening family members. There’s no time for discussion or dialogue. I’m sure you’ve been following the state media and seeing all the insults and threats thrown at the protesters. Calling them “mohareb” and how the revolutionary guard would kill 75,000 people to keep itself in power. And people like you seem surprised at how these protesters react.
Your claim that many Iranians are not happy of the situation yet they don’t support the Greens doesn’t make sense. What do you think these people want to achieve? A green dictatorship? They want a better life, a secure job, some freedom to voice their concerns just like most Iranians. This government will not give it to them. Chanting death to America and Israel will not put food on the table. Iranians are getting tired of this government. I have family whom are poor and middle-class. Not one supports this government. However, fear puts them in check. But what the Green movement has shown Iranians is that you can overcome that fear.
Dan,
It appears that people such as yourself and the Leveretts’ claim to legitimacy and expertise in these events is your proclaimed talent in “factual analysis” and independent observations void of any emotion. But the truth is, its all a convenient ruse to hide your ideology. If someone wanted to be unbiased and independent, why would they publish a paper with a government propagandist pulling the government line? Why would they accuse Hashemi and Rafsanjani of corruption, when many government proponents among the IRGC and Ahmadinejads circle are corrupt as well.
You don’t seem to have any problems with Motjaba Khameini and the question of the frozen billionaire dollars. What about the billionaire Sadegh Mahsouli and several former IRGC commanders that were given important government positions. How did they build up such a bankroll. How did one person move billions of dollars worth of gold to Turkey illegaly? What about the billions lost under Ahmadinejad?
Unfortunately, your independent and unbiased mind is only concerned about which candidate Rafsanjani bankrolled. And we are to believe you and the Leverettes only seek truth.
Past panja sal to iran darse khoonde? Vay pehremard, chand salite? Agar egat shoma to Iran research kardeen, past shoma bayad chanta ketab ham kagas meenveeshadeen.
Ah yes, the TFT poll. When were they conducted again? Oh ok…May 11 to May 20. Before the campaign began. Namard. You claim that you understand the Iranian people and culture. How many Iranians do you know will reveal their political positions to a stranger on the phone, while living under a totalitarian regime.
Bobzee:
what Dan claims in his first comment, based on my observation, is right as I see it in Iran right now, however the issue is no longer the election and presidency. It’s true that the oppositions have greater number in northern Tehran (above Azadi ave.) and Universities, but if you go to the south of Tehran, the situation is totally different (clearly, many of the Mousavi supporters and those who don’t accept the election results, to whom many of my friends are part of this category, are disillusioned people, specially regarding the election and its results, not necessarily regarding the election aftermath.as I talked to those friends, it seems, their demand regarding the election aftermath is reasonable, but they have almost no firm clue for the fraud in the election. at the end, they say, ok we accept the election results, but protesting is a right given by the constitution). In other cities, obviously the situation is in the opposite direction as Tehran. it’s important to note that many Iranians are not happy of the situation, but that doesn’t mean they have an stomach for the green movement, nor do they have a desire to topple the regime in the way media portrays in the west. indeed, most of the young people in the green movement are seen here as “so sol”! and to a degree insulated. one can’t talk to them easily as many of them even don’t listen.in many cases, they just say their words, turn to insult and go; no time for argument. this is an interesting phenomenon to explore!
Bobzee
Ideological and emotional agendas result in you distancing yourselves from factual and analytical information, preferring instead, information that fits with your material interests and emotional disposition.
The primacy of emotion over fact bids ill for you, and
“The fact” is that the overwhelming majority of Iranian people still support the regime and the opposition supporters are clearly the minority.
I have studied Iran for the past 50 years, and know the Iranian culture and the history very well.
As part of my research I Have travelled to Iran so many times, and speak Farsi fluently.
I am an independent observer, I do not support Ahmadinejad or Mosavi,
But the fact that Mousavi’s campaign was bankrolled by corrupt Hashemi-Rafsanjani should tell the readers something.
An independent poll, conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, a nonprofit institute that researches attitudes toward extremism, found that Ahmadinejad was leading by a margin of 2 to 1. 34% said they would vote for Ahmadinejad, 14% favored Mousavi, 2% favored Karroubi, 1% favored Rezaee and 27% were undecided.
The poll was taken from May 11 to May 20. The poll was carried out by a company whose work for ABC News and the BBC in the Middle East has received an Emmy award.
Polling itself was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.
Writing in the Washington Post, pollsters Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty have used this to suggest that Ahmadinejad’s apparent victory might reflect the will of the Iranian people.
A post-election national poll was conducted in late August and early September 2009 by the American polling agency, World Public Opinion, which is affiliated to the University of Maryland.
The scientific poll found that, although 27% of respondents did not state their chosen candidate, 55% said that they had voted for Ahmadinejad. Both Mr Karroubi and Mr Rezai received minimal support.
87% of respondents replied that they had voted compared to 85% according to the official figures, which is within the margin of error provided. In addition, the survey found that 62% of Iranians had “strong confidence” in the election result whilst 64% expressed a similar feeling towards the incumbent president.
This finding almost exactly matches up with the proportion of the vote that Ahmadinejad received.
Along with the TFT poll, the WPO-PIPA survey would appear to be the strongest evidence that the election result was genuine and that allegations of fraud are unfounded.
Dan claims:
“The vast majority of Iranian people still support the regime and the opposition’s supporters are clearly the minority. This is the reality in Iran today.”
You talk about lies and propaganda, yet you have the audacity to make such a claim with absolutely no proof. Have you gone to Iran? Have you spoken to Iranians? What is the source of your claims? IRI state television? The american based WPO poll?
You’re being consumed by your own propaganda, Dan. It appears that your dismissal of the green movement is secondary to the knee-jerk opposition to Israel and US policies. This seems to be the norm among your ‘faux-liberals’ and ron paulites. Absolutely no desire to learn about any aspects of culture and history, yet willing to dictate their needs based on pre-conceptions. Imagine if Israel and the US were allies of the Islamic republic and there was an opposition to the government. Would you dismisses them so easily?
Dan, from the outside we can see that the official version of the “news” put forth by the Iranian government is frequently doused in lies and propaganda. During the post election protests, this was made clear by comparing the information streaming out of Iran via youtube and others means whereby we could see with our own eyes what was happening. Nonetheless, the official news on State run TV in Iran suppressed the truth.
This was very reminiscent of the former Soviet Union, PRAVDA and the like. The Iranian people are lied to by their own government and thereby manipulated. So if you are going to be complete in your criticism of “propaganda”, you really need to tell the whole story. Propiganda and deception abounds.
One can not help but to notice the half truths and Islamic republic propaganda tainting Dillip Hiro’s analysis.
First, has anyone ever noticed that the upscale north Tehran population has been displaced a couple of times already ? The several million strong diaspora Iranians are predominantly the former pro-western north Tehran population who were uprooted by the Islamist’s rule. The mere fact that there are 6+ million diaspora Iranian population scattered in the world, who are mostly former residents of north Tehran, points out to the multiple displacement and exodus from the affluent north Tehran population of 2-3 million over the past 30 years. Where did the new north Tehran residents come from, if not from “south” Tehran, or other provinces ? 30 years of Islamist rule of violence and terror and still failed to uproot the last vestiges of western influence ?
Second, someone has yet to correctly explain the effect(s) of the national strikes in 1978 when the country was flush with cash and foreign reserves. The fact remains that these strikes in 1978 did not bring the financial bankruptcy of the system in the short term. The fact remains that during these strikes, government workers, from military personnel to National Oil company workers, to teachers and educators ALL received pay raises and promotions in what amounted to appeasement by the Imperial government to calm down the situation.
Finally, most op-ed, opinions and analysis of the past 30 years have failed to note the quick and easy hand over of what used to be an emerging affluent country with friendly relations with the entire world to a bunch of blood thirsty and backward Islamists. Islamists run by a manipulative group of (Lebanese origin) clergy whose domain was/is the simplicity and ignorance of the provinces and the poor for the last 5-6 centuries and the source of all social and political evil in modern Iranian history. And they did not hesitate for a moment to embark upon a bloody rampage after being handed the reigns of power.
When it comes to Iran, facts and truth play no part. Lies and propaganda rule.
The western government and their media are clearly biased in the manner they have been reporting the events in Iran; they only support the oppositions in Iran and hardly show any pictures or news of the supporters of the regime.
The vast majority of Iranian people still support the regime and the opposition’s supporters are clearly the minority. This is the reality in Iran today.
“For the western government, their media and the supporters of the opposition in Iran” this reality is almost impossible to stomach, hence, they resort to lies and propaganda to demonise the regime.
The extraordinary attention given to the Iranian none-existent nuclear weapon suggests that many American and Israelis have a stake in the outcome.
Much of the uproar, Lies and propaganda over Iran’s non-existent nuclear weapons is done by the Israeli lobby.
It is merely a way to paint Iran as a threat in order to brainwash the international public opinion and justify an attack.
Under pressure from Israel lobby, Obama is now employing the same tactic, creating fear over nonexistent Iranian nuclear weapons.
If we don’t heed the lessons of history about the evil propaganda that USA and Israel used against Sadaam’s WMD, and if we ignore how sophisticated and evil the present PR campaigns are against IRI and Iran’s none existent nu-clear weapons , then we will have another tragedy in Iran far greater than Iraq.
This will be the catalyst for a million more tragedies in the years to come – the only difference being that you won’t see the deaths of those victims being broadcast on the BBC, Fox News or CNN, as the tragic death of Neda was for propaganda purpose.
“Moreover, on top of its millions of supporters, the regime has another important asset to draw on, which is its military might as embodied in the Republican Guards……..”
Why should anyone waste their time with an analysis that cites a non-existent military force ?
Analysis from Egypt’s Al-ahram explaining the weakness of the green movement. One should note that Al-ahram is far from being a pro-Iranian source. It seems that outside the west fewer folks are willing to fall for the green cult or its favorite pastime of connecting the dots between the present and 1979.
Key quote: “…against a regime that enjoys massive support among other strata of society, and this poses complications for the opposition’s mission.”
“However, the climate in Iran today cannot be compared with the massive revolutionary tide that prevailed in pre-1979 Iran. In his final years, the Shah had lost contact with the Iranian people, and the welfare and security of the regime rested solely upon a narrow class of business magnates and an even smaller coterie of senior army officers.
Today, supporters of the Iranian regime number in their millions, whether they are drawn by the Shia Islamist ideology of the regime, or have vested interests in it as state employees, who in themselves number in the millions. When the regime’s proficiency in securing the satisfaction of broad segments of the populace by channeling a significant chunk of the country’s huge oil revenues into subsidising essential goods is added, the dynamic in Iran today becomes even more apparent.
This is not a case of a regime that is isolated from its people and faces opponents who have massive popular support. Rather, it is the case of an opposition drawn from certain strata of society against a regime that enjoys massive support among other strata of society, and this poses complications for the opposition’s mission.
Moreover, on top of its millions of supporters, the regime has another important asset to draw on, which is its military might as embodied in the Republican Guards. That the regime has not yet had to resort to this army in itself is significant and signifies that its dilemma has not yet reached the magnitude of an existential crisis.”
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2010/981/re10.htm
Thank you for your great website!
I am reading “The Eagle and the Lion: The Tragedy of American-Iranian Relations” by James Bill. It is amazing how ignorant US policy makers were about what was happening in Iran, leading up to and after the fall of the Shah.
My question is, is our understanding of Iran any better today? Aren’t Americans still viewing Iran, not as it is, but through the lens of agenda driven media and political outlets? One hopes that our policy makers have a clearer view, but one really wonders.