Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren says that the United States and Israel have not discussed using force against Iran. So far, the discussions have been limited to the possibility of imposing further sanctions.
The problem is that sanctions will perpetuate antagonistic relations between the United States and Iran while failing to stifle the development of Iran’s nuclear program. Thus sanctions will only serve to kick the can down the road and will eventually lead to a discussion of the use of force as a “last resort.”
A better policy would be to forgo both sanctions and threats – and to instead pursue more serious diplomacy with the Islamic Republic.
– Ben Katcher
or perhaps all the Israeli braggadocio has other purposes, such as convincing people that Israel’s massive military still provides deterrence. Or perhaps it’s simply Israel’s way of repeating the meme of “we’re under existential threat–send more money!!!”
If Oren isn’t lying, and the U.S. and Israel indeed have not dicussed military action, then my level of worry actually increases. Surely the Israelis are discussing military action amongst themselves. The question in my mind is: will they strike soon, while Iran’s domestic situation is chaotic, or will they wait until a sanctions regime has been imposed and clearly failed? In either case it seems to me the odds are better than 50-50 that Israel will hit the nuclear sites in 2010 or 2011.