The New Republic’s Michael Crowley suggests that Russia may be becoming more amenable to supporting sanctions against Iran – if the Islamic Republic cannot reach a deal with the P5+1 over its nuclear program.
Crowley argues that Russia’s decision to delay the shipment of an anti-missile defense system coupled with its announcement that the Bushehr nuclear plant won’t be operational by the end of this year suggest that Russia may be inclined to take a harder line against Iran, and may be open to sanctions.
Last week, Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett explained why Russia is extremely unlikely to go along with anything approaching “crippling” sanctions.
And even if Russia were to go along with sanctions, Crowley’s article does not address the fact that even “crippling” sanctions are unlikely to produce the kind of capitulations on Iran’s nuclear program that the Obama administration appears to be seeking.
– Ben Katcher
I’m not entirey sure that Russia won’t bend to some degree on sanctions. The arguments you make for China not budging are a lot stronger than those for Russia. But surely using the Bushehr and S-300 sagas as evidence for changing Russian attitudes ignores the fact that Russia’s been stalling on both for years already? What’s new?