Adrian Hamilton, writing in The Independent, argues that most recent Western analysis about developments inside Iran are based on what people on the outside want to happen, rather than on an objective analysis of the relevant facts and history.
Here is Hamilton’s conclusion:
The trouble with most comment is that it is suffused by what people on the outside, and the exiles, want to happen rather than what they think will. Opponents of Tehran’s policy on nuclear, Palestine and the region wish for a velvet revolution that would produce a pro-Western government which would reverse all those plans. But even if the reformers eventually prevail, it is still far from certain that they would overthrow the whole theocratic system or act within the tenets of an Islamic revolution which most people still subscribe to. Nor is it sure, however devoutly it may be wished for, that the reformists have the numbers to prevail – although it is my feeling that they will.
The one near-certainty is that, if changes comes, it will be from within the country not without and that when, and if, it comes it cannot be seen to be at the behest of the West and to the detriment of Iran’s independent standing. Our policy should be what it should have been these past 10 years – to forget all the nonsense of sanctions and forcing Tehran to the table, to keep negotiating in good faith and with due understanding of its imperatives, and to support reform by keeping communication open, constantly reiterating our concern and providing a refuge for any who need it.
You can read the entire article here.
– Ben Katcher
What Paneer describes is exactly what is happening in Iraq today–500 candidates got disqualified from running for office. And the expats are running the show. Now there’s democracy for you!
As to that expat Khomeini and his ilk running the country, how can we be sure that another expat community is not waiting in the wings to replace the current group? Or that the regime in waiting would behave any differently from the current Iranian regime or the current Iraqi regime? I’m all for self-determination, but I’d be extremely wary of outsiders agitating on behalf of “the Iranian people,” particularly when outside powers are lurking like vultures.
To johnH and all the supporter of : For the past 30 years, the regime has made a concerted effort to prevent another another leader from emerging to unify the various opposition groups inside and outside of the country. They have been concentrating on this effort because they know that this may be the “winning formula”, as they successfully used it in 1979. After all, Khomeini and his mafia was an “exile” bunch, and Khomeini in particular was residing in an enemy country, Iraq. So, for the past 30 years they have been infiltrating opposition groups outside of the country, have been spreading propaganda and have been sticking to their talking points, that ALL opposition groups and personalities outside of Iran are “out of touch” exiles (that’s their newest propaganda word, and you see it all over this and other sites used by their operatives) who are “foreign agents” of “Zionists” and the “west” (as if Khomeini was not an enemy agent, given refuge in Iraq for decades).
If the IRI really wants to show that it’s not afraid of these “foreign agents” then it should allow them all to return to Iran without arresting, torturing and executing them and allow people to voice their opinions as to whether or not they give these “exiles” any credit. Otherwise, it should STFU with its propaganda. But we all know that there’s a better chance of hell freezing over than this happening. After all, if they do so, they will not be able to call them “exiles” anymore, can they?
JOHNH: Self-rithgeous much?? You also seem to be psychic..
Where are your facts?? Substantiate your assertion with verifiable fact..until then, your mudslinging and character assassination will only discredit you further. You are clueless btw.
Hamilton’s thesis is spot on; the only piece I disagree with is his feeling that the Greens will prevail. I doubt that — at least in the near term. If we’re talking the next five years, I don’t see a Green victory. If more than five years, well, I don’t think anybody can see that far on this issue. In any case, would a Green Iran really reverse the Islamic Republic’s policies toward Palestine, nukes, and so forth? I rather doubt it.
JH
You are right on point regarding the expats feelings, most of our community here in US including expat Iranian commentators and lobbyist
get their info through a filter of affluent high educated families, if you travel to less affluent educated parts of the country you will not hear any of this,
This is thru poll after poll as well as Leveretts correct analysis of where and who demonstrates (locations and the class of demonstrators).
Iranian community in US believes by convincing you and the western community here they will reverse the revolution in Iran;
I think if the expat Iranian community really wants a reversal of the revolution or a new one they need to start a grass root campaign
Inside Iran for the type of Iranians they never meet or regarded to meet.
At the end there is a Persian proverb that goes like this “ba halva halva goftan dahan shireen nemishavad” perhaps Dr. Levreets can translate that for you
So you understand
Paneer–show me facts, not anecdotes. Spinning tales about the feelings of your extended, probably affluent family does not impress me.
JohnH: I guess you’re happy with your knowledge and have no desire to learn more.
Well, Paneer, odds are that the Iranian expat community, like most expat communities, is comprised primarily of the Westernized former upper crust. Otherwise, they never would have gotten here. It certainly describes the Iranians I know here. Their sympathies naturally lie with people who live in west and north Tehran. Unless you can show me reliable evidence, I don’t see how you can claim that the Westernized, secular elements of Iranian society represent the country as a whole.
In any case, your disparagement does not change the validity of the point I was making–unless you have good polling or election data, you have no idea what is going on in Iranian society at large. All you have is cherry picked anecdotes.
The Battle for Iran
The Nation
14-Jan-2010
There is little doubt that Iran’s clerical oligarchy has been severely stunned and badly bruised by events following the disputed June election. The regime has suffered a huge blow to its legitimacy, and its management of the crisis has made matters worse. At the elite and societal level, unprecedented dissent and opposition have emerged as a confused regime increases state-sanctioned violence and begins a slow drift toward hard authoritarianism/semi-totalitarianism. However, despite this body blow, we are still a long way from witnessing the demise of the Islamic Republic.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20100201/hashemi
JohnH: What do you know about the Ex-pat community in the US? Do you want to know? Do you care to know??
Frankly I’m skeptical of expat Iranians who tell us what is going on inside of Iran. Yes, the landscape may have changed. Or maybe not. Without rigorous opinion polls or clean elections, there is no way to tell.
I base this on my observations of Venezuela and US political commentary over the past decade. We were repeated told that Venezuela was going to hell in a hand basket under Chavez. The economy was deteriorating. There were massive street marches in Caracas. He couldn’t last much longer. Meanwhile opinion polls repeatedly gave him overwhelming approval margins, and clean elections (watched by international observers) repeatedly proved them right. US assessments turned out to be nothing more than wishful thinking.
I’m also reminded of the massive anti-war/anti-regime demonstrations during the late 1960s, which resulted in the election of Nixon, who trained the likes of Cheney and Rumsfeld.
Before the West or the Iranian expat community go gaga over the Green Movement, they need to get their bearings and an accurate read of the situation. Hopefully the Leveretts will help them do that.
Lysander: I’m in full agreement with you and Trita.
Paneer
In reading Trita Parsi’s article I find little with which to disagree. Do not sanction the country and even lift some sanctions that are hurting the people. I’m all for that.
Indeed I would lift all sanctions on all countries. Iran, North Korea, Cuba without conditions or restrictions.
Critical shift
U.S. policy must factor in changed landscape in Iran
http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/75571-us-policy-must-factor-in-changed-landscape-in-iran
I forgot to mention that it also smacks of covert orientalism. That’s all for now.
It’s amusing that non-Iranians who have no personal stake, no knowlege of Persian culture and language are trying to tell us what’s going on in Iran while we fear for the lives of our loved ones in Iran; either from external and internal enemies.
Nice try…It doesn’t hold water…because we are all in contact with our extensive families and travel quite often to Iran…
The titile couldn’t be more demogaugic…
The problem is not just that most Western commentary is suffused with what the political class wants to have happen. The problem is that they pretty much believe whatever they want to believe. Anti-Iranian demagogues make it an article of faith that Iran has an active nuclear weapons program. Yet no evidence for it exists, according to the IAEA and US intelligence communities.
Brigadier-General Uzi Eilam, 75, a war hero and pillar of the Israeli defence establishment, “suggested that the “defence establishment is sending out false alarms in order to grab a bigger budget” while some politicians have used Iran to divert attention away from problems at home.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6982447.ece
The hype surrounding Iran’s putative weapons program may have more to do with Washington and Tel Aviv political needs than with reality in Iran.