Joshua Pollack over at Arms Control Wonk is optimistic that the uranium enrichment deal among Iran, Russia and France will go through, despite murmurs to the contrary coming out of Vienna this week.
Pollack describes the strategic significance of the deal this way:
It’s easy to get absorbed in the minutiae of site-specific safeguards and takeback arrangements, so let’s keep in mind what the parties really seem to be getting. Iran can duck the worst of the fallout from the Qom affair and gain implicit acceptance of its enrichment activities. (Emphasis on “implicit.”) The P5+1 can put time back on the clock by getting that 1,200 kg LEU out of the country. And in the implementation phase, the sides will be able to test each other’s intentions and create some trust at the working level, assuming there are no major hitches.
In other words, the deal doesn’t mean much in and of itself, but could be a precursor to more significant steps to normalize Iran’s relations with the international community down the line.
– Ben Katcher
I think Hillary Clinton signalled as much today:
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On Iran:
If Iran is serious about taking practical steps to address the international community’s deep concerns about its nuclear program, we will continue to engage both multilaterally and bilaterally to discuss the full range of issues that have divided Iran and the United States for too long.
The door is open to a better future for Iran. But the process of engagement cannot be open-ended. We are not prepared to talk just for the sake of talking. As President Obama noted after the October 1st meeting in Geneva, we appear to have made a constructive beginning. But that needs to be followed up by constructive actions.
In particular, prompt action is needed on implementing the plan to use Iran’s own low-enriched uranium to refuel the Tehran research reactor, which is used to produce medical isotopes.
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http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/