Politico’s Laura Rozen, citing a senior non-proliferation expert from within the Obama administration, reports that Iran has made a formal counter-offer to the P5+1 fuel swap deal.
Here are the key graphs:
A U.S. nonproliferation hand confirmed Sunday that Iran had offered a formal response in late December or early January. While the Iranian fuel-swap response was said to have been conveyed by the highest levels of the Iranian government, U.S. officials contacted Sunday gave no public indication that they have any interest in the counter-offer.
The Tehran Research Reactor proposal, or TRR, calls on Iran to immediately send 1,200 kg of its LEU to Russia, and France would in return supply Iran with nuclear fuel cells for medical use. The plan would have left Iran without enough fissile material to enrich for use in a nuclear weapon, putting time back on the clock for international negotiations on the nation’s nuclear program.
Iran’s counter-offer also proposes sending the 1,200 kg abroad – probably to Turkey – but in batches, starting with a first shipment of 400 kg. The offer seems to establish Iran’s willingness to export the LEU out of the country, which would satisfy a key Western condition.
If true, this is a welcome development – and one that the Obama administration should pursue and use to avoid imposing sanctions.
Rozen’s report can be read here.
– Ben Katcher
Mithra, it’s great to know you don’t think I’ve done my homework, based on a few paragraphs that I’ve written here. I would love it if you would develop your own arguments — I want to read them. Dismissing me in this fashion doesn’t further your knowledge or mine.
Jon Harrison: If you really cared about America in the long run, you would have done yoru homework and knew that coddling anotehr dictatorship in the ME is not in the long-term interest of the US. I love American and I fear for its future.
Iranian, you can’t have it both ways. I’m not being “sensitive,” just calling ‘em as I see ‘em. Sorry if you don’t like my tone, but I’d say that’s you being too sensitive.
Do I care about Iran and the Iranian people? Yes, I do. But I’d be lying if I said they’re more important to me than America and the American people. You’re dreaming if you think the world is full of gushing lovers of humanity. Such people do exist, but they tend to wind up irrelevant or dead.
Jon Harrison: This is not about you or me. You’re so sensitive…
I know you don’t care about Iran and Iranians. That much was evidenced from the get go.
I read your post, Iranian. I frankly don’t care whether I possess any authority or credibility with you.
Another Iranian: Please reread my comment. I did not say Iran at the moment is trying to provoke an attack against itself. I said, “the only way the regime is going to persevere is by provoking an attack against itself”. Whether they will resort to such tactics remains to be seen but that is the only way they have a shot at survival.
Another Iranian:
There are hundreds of articles by Persian writers inside Iran that are asserting the same thing. I don’t have time to translate them all. But if you read Persian, you would have known. The fact that you don’t know that makes me think that you’re not really informed.
Jon Harrison: I think you should read my comments again instead of using empty pejoratives. Until I hear you refuting the contents of my posts, you have no crediblity or authority to know what’s good for Iran or the US.
I see Iranian is able to foretell the future (“Do you think . . .”). Therefore let’s just shut off our minds and listen to what he/she has to say.
“The U.S. should stay away completely.” Not a bad thought, but unfortunately the world does not work that way. Let’s try an adult approach, trying to do the best that can be done for both the U.S. and the Iranian.
@ Iranian:
while your arguments for the U.S interference in Iran’s internal affairs are genuine and worth thinking of, what you say about IRI’s intentions to provoke an attack is at best a conspiracy theory, if not lack of in depth understanding of the system and the overall picture.
Complicity of France and the IRanian revolution:
http://www.brusselsjournal.com/node/1857
Lysander: Read my response on the Regime change thread to your question.
Lysander:: Still not too late for the IRI to provoke an attack against itself, It could even be from Iraq, Bahrain. One thing is for certain, if the US does not throw a lifeline to the regime, the regime will not last more than 5 more years, max.
Everybody needs to stay away from Iran… We don’t anyone to meddle in our affairs.
“The only way IRI is going to survive is to provoke an attack against itself, either by Israel, US, or even Iraq…”
Seeing as how easy it was for Iraq to ‘provoke’ an attack, why can’t Iran manage it if that is what it really wants? Why not aid Iraqi or Afghan insurgents with armor piercing sniper rifles, anti-helicopter manpads, laser guided anti-tank weapons? Iran certainly could do that if it wanted and would certainly illicit a military response. Why not withdraw from the NPT and openly pursue a nuclear weapon?
The fact of the matter is, it really isn’t hard to ‘provoke’ the US or Israel to attack and if that’s what Iran wanted, it could have done it a long time ago.
“Iran does not have nuclear weapons and even it did, it is not a threat to Israel or US. The moral thing would be to let the Iranian people determine their own destiny and future. The US should stay away completely.”
I have to agree completely with that, but the US for its own reasons will not.
Help Iranians. Stop worrying about the bomb
Protests on Iran’s streets underline how the Tehran regime is faltering. The West’s obsession risks throwing it a lifeline
Nader Mousavizadeh
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6964467.ece
The US best help is to stay away from Iran, period.
“U.S.-Iranian engagement does not spell doom for the Green movement. Indeed, U.S.-Iranian friendship would probably protect the Greens from the worst and, over time, help further their agenda.”
Do you think the IRI doesn’t know that?? Precisely for that reason, there will be no normalization, deal, grand bargain. When IRI feels weak, they pretend that they are pragmatic and the US can struck a deal with them. As soon as they feel strong, they will change their mind. It’s amazing that the US has not figured that out yet.
The only way IRI is going to survive is to provoke an attack against itself, either by Israel, US, or even Iraq…
Iran does not have nuclear weapons and even it did, it is not a threat to Israel or US. The moral thing would be to let the Iranian people determine their own destiny and future. The US should stay away completely.
This is good news, if true. IF Iran is willing to ship the stuff to Turkey, even in 2 or 3 batches, that should satisfy the administration. We need a deal to stop the march toward war. And it must be a deal good enough to pacify the neocons/Israelis. The fudge factor is limited.
Not to get ahead of ourselves, but a deal could be a first step toward a U.S.-Iranian rapprochement. The enormous advantages to such a rapprochement — in Afghanistan, Iraq,Central Asia, and as regards future energy policy — should be obvious to followers of this blog. A real rapprochement would be popular with a U.S. citizenry tired of foreign adventures and hurting economically at home.
The U.S. dealing with Iran as an aspect of its foreign policy should not be compared to Operation Ajax, which was an illegitimate interference in Iranian internal affairs. U.S.-Iranian engagement does not spell doom for the Green movement. Indeed, U.S.-Iranian friendship would probably protect the Greens from the worst and, over time, help further their agenda.
The US interfering in Iran’s internal affaires at this point is nothing different than the Operation Ajax. How does throwing a life line to the Islamic Republic (i.e. legitimizing the IRI) does not constitute as direct intervention in Iranian’s struggle for democracy? How many times does the US is going to prevent Iran from being a democratic country??
I’m beginning to think that it’s not in the long term interest of the US to have a democratic Iran in the region. That really explains all the incosistencies we have seen for the past 30 years coming from all US adminstrations.
As Elias Sajjad has said
by Bavafa on Mon Jan 11, 2010 02:21 PM PST
As Elias Sajjad has said in her blog here, there are many wolves around that would like to discredit this movement. The enemies of this revolution are not just IRI, be aware of the enemies outside of Iran as well. Neocons/AIPAC are working hard to derail this revolution by the people. They know they can contorl one or two clown in charge, but not the whole nation.
http://www.iranian.com/main/blog/elias-sajjad/neo-wolf-green-s-clothing
There are a couple of inconsistencies in the reporting here, but the signs are positive. The LEU exchange-in-stages offer was first made by Iran in November, according to Mohammed El Baradei in his address to the IAEA in late November. This would correspond with the Iranian quote that a month had already passed. The November offer was watered down from the original September offer from Iran because of the internal uproar it had caused, according to Farideh Farhi in her MERO piece in early December.
What seems to have changed recently is that Iran has acquiesced in making the exchanges in Turkey rather than Iran. The nature and source of this report, the off the record comments from officials in the US and Europe, the official comments from Russia and China, and the activation of a role for Turkey all seem to point to a deal in the offing. I hope.
As the official quoted says, Obama badly needs it. For his credibility, and to halt this march to war.
Good link, but it’s a pet peeve of mine when people link only to the second page of a story. The first page is here: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31334.html