“The key point is that Obama wants a deal and the Iranians want a deal” nails this puppy hard and high to the wall. Each leader reflects a consensus desire among their respective “establishments” of power. Its just 30 years of conflict, long indoctrinated public’s and extremist factions each has to contend with that’s making the inevitable a little difficult.

Each has to find a way that is sellable to their own electorate, and that has become particularly complicated in Iran. In what looks like a shift on that score, Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying yesterday that if the LEU wasn’t returned, they could just make some more.

Things are happening, but both sides have this sewn up so tight that I don’t think we’ll know much in advance of an actual deal being struck.

With so little information out now, we can only speculate. It may be that Iran is taking a page from the west’s play book. Meaning that they seemingly agree to the deal while attaching a few conditions such as time of delivery, etc., that the US will not accept it.

Also, it is possible Iran was offered something else such as the US will not oppose Japanese investment in Iran. Also, if the west reneges, perhaps Iran will have China’s and Russia’s backing to enrich to 20% themselves.

But of course it’s too early to say and speculation is worth very little until we know more.

Because, as rfjk says, the Japanese wouldn’t touch this without US say so. They also won’t return the uranium without US say so. Iran might as well ship the uranium here.