Politico’s Laura Rozen reports that Japan is trying to work out a uranium enrichment agreement that is amenable to both the United States and Iran. Japan is a logical choice to help broker a deal because it enjoys friendly relations with both sides.
According to Rozen
Under the alleged compromise fuel swap deal that Japanese diplomats quietly briefed U.S. officials on earlier this month, some 70% of Iran’s low enriched uranium stockpile would be moved to Japan, according to what one Washington source, speaking anonymously, was told by the Japanese. Japan would then take responsibility for the stockpile, and ensure the delivery to Iran of fuel rods for nuclear medical use.
Japanese diplomats were said to consult several U.S. officials of the possible plan in Washington around January 15th, including a deputy to undersecretary of state Bill Burns, who was headed to New York for a January 16th meeting of the P5+1 group on Iran. The deal was described as having met a key western demand that Iran was previously said to reject: that 70% of Iran’s LEU stockpile would be moved out of the country in one batch. U.S. officials did not provide comment for the article.
It is good to hear that the Obama administration has not completely given up on diplomacy, but then we learn that a U.S. goal is to get Japan to support additional sanctions, which appear to be becoming inevitable. According to Rozen
Getting at least one of the leading Asian powers, China or Japan, on board the international sanctions push was described as a key goal of the Obama administration to help legitimate any further economic sanctions and to make them more effective, a Washington Asia expert said. But Japan’s support for such measures is not yet a sure thing, and the Obama administration would see failure to get both China and Japan on board any further Iran sanctions push as a disaster, the Japan expert said.
Sanctions are unlikely to work with or without Japanese support, but a constructive Japanese role in the uranium enrichment negotiations could help alleviate some of the recent pressure on the U.S.-Japan alliance.
– Ben Katcher
Prior to Nixon going to China public & private statements in the media regarding China were 100% bad, some bordering insane hysteria. The fact dialog veers from one end of the spectrum to another isn’t just confusing, it informs an argument is going on between and within the foreign policy establishments of both countries. Also, the Japs aren’t the only country “working behind the scenes” on behalf of Iranians and the US. Normalized relations are in the economic and security interests of many countries.
More on this today/yesterday at nytimes.com with Iran saying we are close to a deal, with no mention of Japan. And then Gates saying basically that we are not close to a deal and pointing to the original US one shipment 100% proposal. The public statements are not encouraging.
BINGO!
“The key point is that Obama wants a deal and the Iranians want a deal” nails this puppy hard and high to the wall. Each leader reflects a consensus desire among their respective “establishments” of power. Its just 30 years of conflict, long indoctrinated public’s and extremist factions each has to contend with that’s making the inevitable a little difficult.
We’ll see. The key point is that Obama wants a deal and the Iranians want a deal.
Each has to find a way that is sellable to their own electorate, and that has become particularly complicated in Iran. In what looks like a shift on that score, Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying yesterday that if the LEU wasn’t returned, they could just make some more.
Things are happening, but both sides have this sewn up so tight that I don’t think we’ll know much in advance of an actual deal being struck.
It’s certainly a surprising turn of events, if true. IMHO, it would be a very bad idea for Iran to turn over in one lump sum 70% of it’s Uranium and hope the west will return it later. Domestically, it would allow the Greens to attack the government’s national security credentials. If later the uranium is not returned, they will look like fools who gave away a valuable strategic asset in exchange for magic beans.
With so little information out now, we can only speculate. It may be that Iran is taking a page from the west’s play book. Meaning that they seemingly agree to the deal while attaching a few conditions such as time of delivery, etc., that the US will not accept it.
Also, it is possible Iran was offered something else such as the US will not oppose Japanese investment in Iran. Also, if the west reneges, perhaps Iran will have China’s and Russia’s backing to enrich to 20% themselves.
But of course it’s too early to say and speculation is worth very little until we know more.
Well, of course the Iranian government csme out today and said, in substance, it wants to do the swap. Once again, we have to wait and see if they’re serious or just playing games.
Highly unlikely. Iran seems to be ready to announce that it will fabricate the fuel itself on Feb 11. This smells like the same kind of plant that had people expecting Iran to turn over it’s stockpile of enriched uranium in October in order to continue talks.
The even more pertinent question is: can Iran trust the Japanese? Do they really believe that japan would return the uranium if the US says otherwise? I sure don’t.
Because, as rfjk says, the Japanese wouldn’t touch this without US say so. They also won’t return the uranium without US say so. Iran might as well ship the uranium here.
Here’s another poignant question. Does anyone here believe the Japs would touch this with a 10 ft. pole if the US was opposed to it?
The question is: are the Iranians serious about a swap, or just playing for time?