Michael Slackman has a very revealing “Memo from Riyadh” in yesterday’s New York Times that explains how the balance of power in the Middle East is shifting away from Egypt and Saudi Arabia (American allies) and toward the Islamic Republic and its proxies. He also demonstrates that neither Saudi nor Egypt has a plausible solution to reverse this trend. Saudi Arabia’s call for “Arab unity” just isn’t going to cut it, and Egypt’s “peace” card looks less and less plausible with every American misstep.
Slackman’s argument – which is supported by statements from numerous high-ranking Arab officials and is really worth reading – lends credence to the view put forth yesterday on this blog by Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett.
The Leveretts provide a detailed account of how the the Lebanese elections are the latest evidence of the ascendancy of the Iran/Syria/Hizballah alliance at the expense of the United States’ Arab allies.
Here is their conclusion:
Iran’s rising influence in the Middle East flows, to a large degree, from its support for groups like Hizballah and HAMAS that significant portions of local populations see as their legitimate representatives and as the only political forces engaged in serious resistance to U.S. and Israeli hegemony in the region. Bashar al-Assad has not allowed Arab allies of the United States to use a restrictive interpretation of Arab solidarity to undermine his ties to the Islamic Republic and Iranian-backed forces of resistance—ties that cut across Arab-Persian and Sunni-Shi’a divides. This is a testament to Assad’s diplomatic acumen, which contradicts both the facile stereotypes of the Syrian leader that took hold in the West after Hariri’s assassination and expectations that he was in “over his head”. It is also a testament to Iran’s indispensability to settlements of the Middle East’s core conflicts, including those in Lebanon and Palestine.
– Ben Katcher