Hooman Majd, author of The Ayatollah Begs to Differ and former adviser and interpreter for Iranian Presidents Khatami and Ahmadinejad has an important article in Foreign Policy that lays bare the reality of the Green Movement in Iran.
Majd explains that the Green Movement is better understood as a civil rights movement than as a revolution.
Here is what Majd says about the potential for a revolution.
The radical elements claiming to be a part of the green movement only speak for a small minority of Iranians. The majority still want peaceful reform of the system and not necessarily a wholesale revolution, bloody or otherwise. That’s why, in the most recent Ashura demonstrations, for example, large groups of peaceful marchers actually prevented some of the movement’s radicalized elements from beating or attacking security forces. Although accurate polling information is not available, based on what we hear and see of the leaders of the green movement and many of its supporters, radicalization is still limited to a minority of protesters.
You can read the entire article here.
– Ben Katcher
The investigation about Neda’s death continues, the state broadcast is not the Judiciary of Iran. It will not the first time the Iranian broadcast mistakes (see death of Mrs Tahare Musavi), though many of the rape claims are proven wrong by them.
That was a good, level-headed piece by Hooman (what one would expect from Hooman-jan). The comments from Nehzat Sabz were also worth reading.
“death of Neda Agha Soltan was a hoax. The report on Iranian TV says that Neda smeared blood on her own face and expected to be taken to the hospital with faked injuries. The regime is claiming that Neda was actually shot in the ambulance taking her to the hospital by her own friends who desired to turn her into a martyr. According to Iranian television, Aresh Hejazi, one of the doctors who tried to save Neda actually participated in the plot to murder her.”
I believe it. This is exactly the kind of behaviour you would expect from the opposition (MKO, NCRI & friends) and Western intelligence agencies and their allies, and people against Iran and the Iranian people in general.
Can you please provide links to your sources?
Let’s hope that Hooman Majd is right and that Iranian civil rights improve, free from foreign interference.
However, that will do little to change Iran’s attitude toward Israel or its march to nuclear power. It will do little to satisfy rabid Likudites or bring Iran under US hegemony. As a result, the current US/Israeli hysteria about Iran will most likely continue unabated, regardless of what Iran does.
The desperation of US/Israeli foreign policy elites is palpable. They appear to tacitly acknowledge that there is no military solution. And so, they are willing to clutch at any straw that suggests that the imminent end of the Iranian regime. Currently they are placing all their hopes and dreams in the demonstrators, who do not necessarily want what the US/Israel want as an outcome. Moreover, demonstrations really mean nothing. Some people will recall the ineffectiveness of massive demonstrations during the Vietnam War.
People would also do well to remember the massive anti-Chavez demonstrations held in Caracas and instigated by the Chamber of Commerce and powerful media moguls with tacit US support. Huge numbers of people were truly incensed at Chavez. Yet the demonstrations meant nothing, absolutely nothing. Opinion polls consistently showed Chavez’ approval rating exceeding 60%. And his annual election victories reflected those numbers. When push came to shove and Chavez was briefly ousted by a Chamber of Commerce coup, the people took over the streets, forcing Chavez’ return. And the massive anti-Chavez demonstrations continued., to no effect.
Obviously, Iran is not Venezuela. My only point is that demonstrations by themselves do not mean much.
Foreign policy elites in the US and Israel need to get past their wishful thinking and start dealing with reality. And that reality is that Iran is likely to remain a sovereign, independent nation with its own national interests for a long time to come. The US and Israel need to start negotiating around those interests and stop trying to dictate an outcome that reflects only US and Israeli national interests.
The article by Hooman Majd is really a “must read.” It is an informative and nuanced account of the Green Movement in Iran. It’s too bad that there isn’t more dispassionate and even-handed analysis about what happening in Iran out there. Majd’s piece appears in Foreign Policy. The same journal/website is now running a post on its “Passport Blog” mentioning the fact that Iranian television is now broadcasting the claim that the death of Neda Agha Soltan was a hoax. The report on Iranian TV says that Neda smeared blood on her own face and expected to be taken to the hospital with faked injuries. The regime is claiming that Neda was actually shot in the ambulance taking her to the hospital by her own friends who desired to turn her into a martyr. According to Iranian television, Aresh Hejazi, one of the doctors who tried to save Neda actually participated in the plot to murder her.
I wonder if Ben Katcher thinks Neda staged her own injuries. I wonder whether Mr. Leverett and Ms Mann-Leverett believe that Neda was killed by her own compatriots instead of by the Basij militia. It wouldn’t surprise me if Katcher and the Leveretts really do believe the Iranian television reports. After all they seem reticent to view information released by Iranian Government sources at anything less than face value.
If they don’t believe these new reports about Neda’s death, perhaps the Leveretts or Ben Katcher can explain how this is a regime that any civilized government can do business with.