In our two extended discussions with him, see here and here, HAMAS political chief Khalid Mishal came across as a clear-eyed, strategic leader. Last week, Charlie Rose sat down in Damascus for his own interview with Mishal, see here. The interview is very evocative, substantively and in terms of Mishal’s personal qualities, of our conversations with the HAMAS leader. But, in the context of yesterday’s Israeli attack, in international waters, against a flotilla of Turkish ships bringing relief supplies to Gaza, Rose’s interview with Mishal takes on special significance, and we urge its full viewing.
Israel’s absolutist defenders are already spinning the deaths and injuries that resulted from Israel’s attack on the Turkish ships as the fault, first of all, of those who organized the relief effort, and also of HAMAS. In this all-too-familiar Israeli narrative, HAMAS is cynically exploiting a manufactured image of Palestinian “victimhood” to manipulate international opinion against Israel.
But watch Charlie Rose’s interview with Khalid Mishal—Mishal can hardly be described as wallowing in Palestinian victimisme. Quite the contrary; Mishal comes across—as he has in our meetings with him—as an impressive political leader, persuaded that he is serving a just cause, but also prepared to reach a realistic and sustainable two-state settlement of the Palestinian conflict with Israel.
Two points flow from this observation with regard to the Middle East’s shifting strategic dynamics.
The first concerns Turkey. Prime Minister Erdoğan is also an impressive political leader, with genuine strategic vision, and persuaded that he is serving a just cause—seeking to relieve Israel’s blockade of Gaza. Erdoğan has personally visited Gaza; his government has established a good relationship with HAMAS. Erdoğan is understandably angered by the international community’s willful failure to engage Israel, in a serious way, to end its blockade of Gaza.
Indeed, the United States and Europe have effectively facilitated and supported that blockade—operating from an immoral and geopolitically short-sighted belief that by applying pain to the local population in Gaza, that population could be induced to turn against HAMAS. The United States and the European Union made a strategic blunder when they refused to recognize and deal with HAMAS after it won internationally-supervised Palestinian elections in 2006. Instead, they have worked actively to undermine legitimate Palestinian governance in order to prop up Palestinian figures who seem more compliant and willing to accommodate Israel. We are now watching the geopolitical consequences of that approach in Israel’s attack on the Turkish ships and all that has flowed and will flow from this incident. In this context, Erdoğan is stepping into a leadership vacuum created by others in the international community—especially the United States—who should have drawn clear red lines for Israeli conduct but instead abrogated their responsibilities.
The second point concerns Iran. Over the last decade—and particularly since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was first elected President of the Islamic Republic in 2005—Iran has been able to increase its standing and influence in regional affairs largely because it has picked “winners” as its allies in various local arenas. This is the case with Hizballah in Lebanon; it is the case with Shi’a Islamist parties and associated militias in Iraq—and it is the case with regard to HAMAS. These factions represent their communities’ interests in what their constituents consider an authentic and effective manner.
But, just as the United States willfully misinterprets the dynamics of Palestinian politics, it also mischaracterizes the dynamics of Iranian politics. Ahmadinejad and other Iranian leaders have considerable legitimacy and popular backing—in Iran and throughout much of the rest of the region—because they tap into peoples’ need for/interest in strategic leadership. Unfortunately, the Obama Administration now wants to apply the “Gaza model” to Iran, hoping that, if the United States and its Western partners can apply enough hardship, the Iranian people will turn against Ahmadinejad’s government—and perhaps even the whole edifice of the Islamic Republic. This is at least as big a strategic blunder as that committed by the United States and its European friends with regard to Gaza. Taken together, the two blunders will, metaphorically speaking, pour gasoline on some of the Middle East’s most volatile flashpoints.
–Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett
Rehmat – The guy in this article was Tony Blair last time I looked.
http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-49002920100602
But I will concede you can never be sure with politicians these days.
Nyeth Alan, it was not Tony Blair by British PM David Cameron (a member of “Friends of Israel”) who called for the end to the Gaza blockade.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3898177,00.html
James – Tony Blair has now called for an end to the blockade. This is a personal shock, as I thought I would never accord any importance to anything he said ever again.
Both Washington and Tel Aviv hate to asmit that they have failed in bringing “regime change” in Iran, Lebanon and Gaza.
The Economist in its March 31 issue published an article, titled “Hamas hangs on”, listed a few of Hamas’ achievements during the last four years:
1. Cement which cost US$80 two years ago, has dropped almost tenfold in price – precipitating a spate of buildings for the first time since Israel’s attack a year ago which reduced 4,000 houses to ruin.
2. Israel’s seige still causes misery. Yet some economists say that the strip is going faster than the West Bank run by Hamas’ rival PA (Fatah).
3. The petrol pumped into Gazzah by underground pipes and hoses from Egypt cost a third of what it cost in Ramallah, Mahmoud Abbas’ capital where gas is supplied by the Zionist entity.
4. Free health-care is more widely available in Gazzah (even not available in the US but Washington do subsidizes free healthcare in Israel).
5. The web of Israeli checkpoints that still impede Palestinian movement and commerce in the West Bank are absent in Gazzah.
6. The civil-servants in Gazzah receive salary on regular bases which is not the case in the West Bank.
7. In the 14 months since 23-day Israeli invasion, Hamas has swept up much of the wreckage. The Islamic University bombed the Zionazis – sparkles again. New caf’es have opened across Gazzah city.
8. The recent US sanctions imposed on main Hamas-owned bank, but the informal hawala banking system that straddles the border keeps the Strip solvent.
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2010/04/04/thumbs-up-for-hamas/
Alan,
Netanyahu may indeed have done the US a favor, if the blockade in Gaza is broken due to miscalculation. Obama seems to have been incapable of just telling Israel to end the blockade. Haim Saban would not approve.
Alan,
The foolish Israeli blockade of Gaza obviously has not caused an uprising against Hamas, and it seems completely unlikely that continuing the blockade will cause Hamas to be rejected by the Palestinians in Gaza (and elsewhere). The singular stupidity of the US effort to overturn the election result, has certainly not furthered the cause of a settlement of the Israel/Palestine problem.
Fiorangela,
Hillary Clinton has no sense of history, and little strategic thinking ability. This is why she spouts a talking point about Israel “needing to be secure” when she obviously is incapable of comprehending that Israel’s vicious stupidity is making Israel insecure. And the vicious stupdidity is continually aided and abetted by third-rate American leaders.
Castellio,
Thanks for the link to Peter Lee’s article, and your own perceptive post.
This passage from Lee’s article is also worth highlighting:
“As for the United States, it welcomes a manageable security crisis in North Asia. If the issues are economic, the US is on the outside looking in. But when North Korea misbehaves, the 7th Fleet, 29,000 troops in South Korea, and US shuttle diplomacy look like essentials, not anachronisms.”
This brings to mind a central point in Paul Kennedy’s great book from a few years back, The Rise and Fall of Great Powers. The apparent strength of a world power, as represented by its military might, is often greatest when the real strength of that world power is at an ebb, because the economic underpinnings of the world power’s strength (which are what really count) usually start to decline long before the battleships and rifles acquired with its former economic wealth have rusted out.
The US may rattle its sword over Korea, but I cannot imagine it would ever use it without China’s acquiescence, which is hardly likely to be forthcoming. Sooner or later the US’ sword will rust, or the US will put it back in its sheath because it will recognize that no one seems to be cringing any more.
As Lee writes, time is on China’s side, and China knows this. Iran might learn something here from its new friend in the Far East.
Fiorangela Leone…..
Israel turned those guns on the US long time ago – and the list is quite long. For example, USS Liberty and USS Cole – ignoring Israel’s controversial part in 9/11.
“Does anybody remember the USS Cole? In October, 2000 while refueling in the Port of Aden, the USS Cole was sunk by a small boat loaded with explosives, resulting in the death of 17 soldiers and injuring another 39. Samples of the explosives taken from the ships hull revealed that the explosive was of a type only available in the U.S. and…(drum roll please) that’s right-Israel!
How about the bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Sa’ana? In October 2008 Yemeni security forces arrested a group of alleged Islamists militants linked to Israeli intelligence in connection to that provocatuered attack. The network was described as 40 people from different Arab nationalities that were spying for the Mossad. Say it ain’t so, Joe!” – Keith Johnson in “Yemen, the Gold Watch and Everything!”
The US , Britain and France had been selling arms to their Arab puppet regimes for decades to run their armament industries and to support their proxy regimes to fight Islamists.
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2010/03/09/yemen-red-sea-and-israel/
I can’t recommend highly enough Peter Lee’s “Cheonan’s sinking… and Korea rising.”
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/LF03Dg01.html
His opening paragraph reads: “The Cheonan incident has emerged as a potentially major gambit in South Korean President Lee Myung-bak’s efforts to distance his country from China, establish it as America’s full geopolitical partner in North Asia, and substitute the United Nations Security Council for the six-party talks as the primary venue for international engagement-cum-confrontation with North Korea.”
What he captures well is the battle for who might own the re-unified Korean peninsula. Right now North Korea is a strong ally of China, and South Korea’s major trading partner has moved from Japan (during and immediately after the occupation) to the U.S.(the blessed liberators) to, what?… China!
In other words, left to itself, all of Korea will soon be firmly within the Chinese economic orbit.
These are high stakes, time is on China’s side, and the reach of America is slowly being turned back. The Cheonan incident is meant to be a high hurdle to that continuing evolution, and to reaffirm the more traditional role of the U.S. and South Korea vis a vis the aggressive, insane north. But trying to move the clock backwards will offer very short term relief, if it is relief at all.
I think China saying “no, not now” to Secretary of Defense Gate’s proposed visit has everything to do with Korea and Taiwan, and China’s rather clear understanding of America’s on-going desire to encircle it while limiting its political influence. Nor do I think Secretary of State Clinton has the cultural-historical literacy to be a useful leader in terms of American foreign affairs.
The Iran China relationship will continue to strengthen and evolve within this context. Will China militarily support Iran or guard its back? No. Will it continue to increase trade and investment? Yes.
Serifo – it doesn’t take a genius to notice a pattern: those whom US has supported and armed almost inevitably turn those guns on the US. It’s only rational and prudent to consider that Israel might do the same. Petraeus’s and Gates’s urgency to sell weapons to Arab states might be seen as arming an ally for a US-Arab war against Israel (that and the money).
having read spin for so many years, it’s tempting to spin Obama’s silence as stepping out of the way and letting Israel destroy itself.
The Leveretts, like Iran, have chosen the right champions. Hamas’ Meshaal, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, President Erdogan and Turkey’s ambassador Davutoglu, have left Israel and US in the diplomatic dust. US and Israeli policy of kill ‘em til they say uncle has been replace by the very people US and Israel have been trying to kill.
Who is in the wings, prepared to enact an American foreign policy that can meet the intellectual maturity of the Middle Eastern leaders? Davutoglu met with Hil Clinton yesterday and made a crystal clear declaration: the issue is about right and wrong. HRC gave a weasel response, “Israel must be secure.” She still doesn’t get it. Take away Israel’s bully power and Israel might start to behave in a civilized fashion. Disarm Israel. Best NPR could come up with to flesh out the report was Martin Indyk. Now there’s someone who could use some of that cement. For shoes.
I don’t know how good Iranians are in mixing cement in a nuclear reactor – but the NewScientist magazine reported on Fabruary 18, 2010 that the scientific growth in Islamic Iran has grown eleven times faster than any other country in the world.
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2010/02/20/canadian-report-iran-has-worlds-fastest-scientific-growth/
Sorry for the typo on my previous comments ! I meant :
The Flotilla massacre is a proven fact of what many…….
Eric: “Anything on those ships we’re overlooking here?”
mondoweiss dot net/2010/06/mystery-solved-flotilla-cargo-contents-revealed.html
marbles and slingshots
The Flotilla massacre is a prove of what many academics and top diplomats have predicted , Israel has become a very dangerous strategic hazard to its Godfather uncle Sam !
It is very interesting how the focus is growing on the blockade now. The EU and the Russians issued a joint statement yesterday calling for the free movement of “humanitarian aid, people, and commercial goods”. That is significant, because they are no longer restricting it to humanitarian aid, and it means 2 of the Quartet have jumped ship, leaving just the UN and the US.
We all know what the UN wants, it’s just the US won’t let them say it officially. Meanwhile, the momentum grows. Egypt has already opened their border crossing, because their pathetic acquiescence in the blockade is about to blow up in their face. The Turks have stolen a march on them. The aid ships are already queuing up to go, and there have also been reports of the Turks saying they will provide naval escorts to in the future, although I can’t get that one back to source. Even Hillary Clinton is saying the blockade is unsustainable. Fatah has announced they are sending a high level delegation to Gaza for reconciliation talks with Hamas, and Hamas have welcomed it.
So where does that leave US policy – i.e. their support of Abbas, the PA, Fatah and Egypt? Up a creek with no paddle I think. If the blockade is relaxed or comes down, Hamas will go from strength to strength. Suddenly reconciliation seems essential amongst all those who were opposing it.
Netanyahu may yet prove to be the best thing that has happened to US foreign policy for decades.
Eric says:
“Tea? Nope – good to go. No self-respecting cement-mixer guy would be caught dead drinking tea.”
Sorry to strike a discordant note, but Eric you are clearly unaware of the phenomenon of “Builders Brew”. The guys at my place drank gallons of the stuff.
Ban it I say.
Kooshy is right. Barry Obama is truly unmasked. His reception in Cairo today would be quite different. He has lied. Big lies.
And I agree with Eric, an extension of the NPT to include cement is long overdue. Iran’s continued development of this deadly material must be curtailed. If it can’t be done through the voluntary destruction of all gravel pits, stocks of lime and sources of fresh water (as well as cement mixers of all sizes), then we, in the enlightened west, will be forced to resort to nuclear weapons to stop the illegal and immoral activity.
Once we level Iran for its use of cement, we will commission Israel to conduct an independent inquiry as to whether mud, straw, or perhaps a combination of the two, can be used in any eventual reconstruction.
Eric
But seriously, unfortunately I must admit, that I am glad that this incident at sea by Mr. Netanyahu and co. finally forced Mr. Obama to show his true face to the Muslim world forever. And made possible for the Muslims to see the real Mr. Obama under the masked false image he tried to wear for over 2 years. Hussein is done making democracy speeches for Muslims in other words he was spent sooner than one could have thought.
Eric
When I wrote, this is all scientific I wasn’t kidding you, look now cement is WMD, and we did not know we need a new world treaty banning cement (Non Cementation treaty), I think we got to figure out if we can pass a few resolutions against Iran, if Iran continues illegally producing cement since that endangers Israel’s existence.
Has Israel lost it? Can the Gaza War of 2008-09 (1,300 dead) and the Lebanon War of 2006 (1,006 dead) and all the other wars and now yesterday’s killings mean that the world will no longer accept Israel’s rule?
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25593.htm
From the David Frum article cited by Kooshy on another thread:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/06/01/frum.gaza.flotilla.israel/
“On Monday, Israeli ships stopped a flotilla carrying materials that could be used for war, including cement that Israel maintained could be used to build bunkers, to Hamas-ruled Gaza. The crew of one boat resisted violently, triggering a firefight in which nine people were killed, most of them Turkish nationals….What is [Turkey] doing allowing its nationals to smuggle cement that could build bunkers?
Cement? When I read Frum’s first mention of “cement,” I assumed the whole piece was intended to be a spoof. But Frum mentioned it again, didn’t he? He was deadly serious. Amazing. Cement.
What’s next?
Blue jeans? Check: Workers who mix cement are known to wear them – so do stray children who hide in bunkers to avoid being blown up by bombs.
Pocket combs? You bet. Cement-mixer guys use them sometimes, and the long-hairs among them wouldn’t even be able to see what they’re doing if they didn’t comb their hair back once in a while. In fact, when you think about it, it’s hard to think of a NON-military use for combs. Army guys use them too, and so do young kids who might get drafted into the army some day – or even volunteer, for God’s sake. And the mothers of a lot of these people use combs too.
Leather? Ever stop to think about what a cement-mixer guy’s belt is made of? How fast can a guy build bunkers if his pants are always falling down around his knees? And some of those guys even wear shoes.
Coffee? Duh! Keeps the cement-mixer guys awake, so they can build more bunkers with the cement.
Tea? Nope – good to go. No self-respecting cement-mixer guy would be caught dead drinking tea.
Tea kettles? Hah! Tripped you up there, didn’t I? Clearly “dual use” – cowboy coffee. You just heat up some water in the tea kettle, throw in some ground-up coffee beans, stir it up a bit, bring it to a boil, and voila: hot coffee! Just pour it through a paper towel (they’re banned too) to filter out the grounds.
And hot coffee is even worse than I’ve been letting on so far, as I learned last week in “Dual Use Training Class.” Hot coffee, in the hands of dangerous people such as cement-mixer guys, means more cement gets mixed, more bunkers get built, fewer Palestinians die from Israeli bombs because they hide in bunkers, and so more bombs therefore are required to kill off the Palestinians. This, in turn, means more American taxpayer money is required to finance those extra bombs, and so less American money is left to pay for things Americans need in their own country, such as road repairs, which requires cement, of course, which we won’t be able to get even if we had the money to pay for it since those selfish Turks are shipping it all off to Palestine. This means, of course, that our roads fall into disrepair and drivers break car axles when they hit potholes on the poorly maintained roads. Unfortunately, a lot of them can’t afford to fix their axles and so they won’t be able to drive to work, which means they’ll lose their jobs and eventually their houses and become wards of the state, which will put an unsustainable burden on the US treasury, forcing it to issue more and more bonds, which will drive up interest rates everywhere and soon force the entire world’s economy into an inexorable downward spiral, leading inevitably to the fall of democracies and the rise of strong-man rulers like Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini and Glen Beck. And then downhill from there.
Bottom line: no tea kettles.
Anything on those ships we’re overlooking here?
Obama’s Timidity and Deaths at Sea
By Ray McGovern
A chief lesson to learn from President Barack Obama’s recent unwillingness to stand up to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud Lobby is that such timidity can get people killed.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25595.htm
Islamic Republic is not Hamas and Mishal is not Ayatullah Khamenei or Sheikh Nasrallah either. Both Islamic Republic and Turkey are not only home to old civilizations – they have powerful Armed Forces too. Israel and US has already tasted bitter military humilations in Lebanon and during the 8-year Iraqi invasion of Iran.
Both Washington and Tel aviv have been trying to defeat Islamic Revolution since 1980s – but every time they found their faces in the sand. The last humiliation they suffered as the result of their funded ‘Green Revolution’. However, one has to give credit to their non-stop lies against Tehran. The latest being “Iran trains Taliban”
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2010/06/02/iran-trains-taliban-really/
Alan,
I left you a response to your reply on my “nuclear dispute” post on the other thread. Thanks.
Eric
Castellio, Eric, the Asia Times article is one of the most frightening things I have ever read. It is truly deranged thinking; it’s a nightmare scenario but it is not beyond the realm of imagining that Israel do those horrible things. Where is my government? Why is not my government protecting me from these madmen? Why is my government instead abetting these madmen?
Donald Liebich, tell us more about your conversations with Meshaal. I listened very closely to the Charlie Rose interview, as well as Rose’s interview with Bashar al-Assad. How did it happen that US leaders ended up so completely irrational? I worry that I am deluding myself that I am so impressed by people MY government says are my enemies.
When I visited Iran I was intrigued with the windows. In the al-Assad interview, at the very beginning, there is a brief shot of an intricate wooden window; its elements are more rectilinear than Iranian windows, which use linear pieces of wood to create circular patterns. In any event, both designs require a high degree of precision and logic to make the pattern work. “Al-gebra: the alignment of the bones.” We Americans are out of rational alignment with our values and our heritage.
What Flynt and Hilary say is exactly my inpression from my discussion with him. IMO he is the most charismatic and effective leader in the ME. This probably qualifies me as a terrorist in Israeli eys.
This from the Spengler article cited by Castellio above:
“Israel maintains a naval blockade of Gaza because Iran among others attempts to ship missiles and other weapons employed to attack Israeli civilians from launching pads in Gaza. In February 2009, the Monchegorsk, shipping weapons from Iran to Hamas in Gaza, was seized by authorities in Cyprus, the most recent of several high-profile interceptions.”
Please, someone, tell me I’m not the only one who finds it utterly absurd to imagine that Iran, or anyone else, would consider it remotely possible that a ship large enough to contain “missiles and other weapons employed to attack Israeli civilians from launching pads in Gaza” could ever make it through the Israeli blockade of Gaza.
Let’s not forget that Hamas only took control of the Gaza strip, after Fatah was goaded by the US to take up arms against their own. This is when Hamas sprang into action. They would have been happy to live with their brethren.
This is a very important distinction.
I said this poorly: I still think Iran is involved in the N Korea/China/US mining of a S Korea ship coverup. It also seems more than obvious that the coverup will explode. With luck, it will take down Hillary Clinton — with a sonic boom.
What I meant is, Hillary is using this incident in some way to gain leverage against Iran. AND, It also seems more than obvious that the coverup will explode. With luck, it will take down Hillary Clinton — with a sonic boom.
Castellio, Spengler, author of the asia times article, is a zionist tool. Doesn’t make the real threat any less dire, but at least the author is not some new acolyte worshipping at the altar of zionism.
James Canning, I suppose I’m stuck on the N. Korea incident. Victor Cha, formerly in Bush admin, now with CSIS, was interviewed on C Span (once again by Steve Skully) to discuss the sinking of the ship.
http://www.c-span.org/Watch/Media/2010/05/23/WJE/A/33268/Victor+Cha+Center+for+Strategic+International+Studies+Korea+Chairman.aspx
Two aspects of his discourse were striking: 1. Castellio had just pointed out the distinction between US foreign policy approach — dominate for corporate interests, and the strategic perspective being evolved by southern hemisphere leaders. Cha enunciated US foreign policy as if he had memorized Castellio’s remarks. Bright guy, that Cha. Cha may also be the go-to guy for State Dept formulation of this coverup. I’m listening to Cha as I type this, with Wendy Sherman’s discussion in mind, and I see little difference between their commentary.
The second aspect was the contrast between the way North Korea is being demonized and will be punished for sinking a ship that it did not sink, and the way Israel was NOT punished or even chastised for killing 37 sailors in an hours-long attack on the SS Liberty. mondoweiss dot net/2010/05/the-u-s-s-liberty-and-the-culture-of-impunity.html
I still think Iran is involved in the N Korea/China/US mining of a S Korea ship coverup. It also seems more than obvious that the coverup will explode. With luck, it will take down Hillary Clinton — with a sonic boom.
The Asia Times piece posted by Castellio is worth reading, for those wishing to learn what the madmen may be planning. Nuke Iran! Smash Lebanon yet again! More war! Hurrah, hurrah!
The moron in the White House before Obama gutted the FBI white collar crime squads, to chase after Islamic charities that supported Hamas and Hezbollah. And what organization provides hospital care, etc., in Gaza? Hamas? Who provides it in southern Lebanon? Hezbollah? Of course, they must be terrorists!
Castellio,
Don’t miss Dahr Jamail’s piece on trouthout today on the attack by Israel on the USS Liberty (during the 1967 war): “US Navy Neterans Continue to Seek Justice for Israeli Attack”.
http://www.truthout.org/us-navy-veterans-continue-seek-justice-israeli-attack60021
I think this is an extremely important posting by the Leverett’s. It gets down to the nub of the matter; the authenticity of the relationships of governments to the people they govern, and how entwined the fate of the countries in the Middle East really are. American policy currently undervalues both.
On the other hand, to read a most distressing interpretation of the Gaza flotilla, where Israeli actions are seen as ‘gentle’ and gingerly’, ending in a call for war, see: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LF02Ak03.html
Mishal is an impressive figure, and not just because he bears more than a passing resemblance to George Clooney.
The relentless foolishness of the US, in encouraging the Israeli delusion that Hamas can be strangled by a blockade of Gaza, is disturbing to say the least.
The fundamental issue is whether Israel will return to its pre-1967 borders without another war. Or another two wars. Or three. All the blather coming from Israeli leaders, about Hamas not recognizing Israel, is essentially part of a confidence trick played against the American people by the governments of Israel and the US.