The Race for Iran Publisher Flynt Leverett and Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S. and the Twisted Path to Confrontation Author Barbara Slavin debated the state of the opposition movement in Iran, the latest on the Iranian nuclear issue, and Obama’s Iran policy.
Leverett criticized the Obama administration for failing to offer a comprehensive agenda that could provide a strategic opening to the Islamic Republic and for continuing Bush-era overt and covert efforts to destabilize the Islamic Republic – noting that President Nixon ordered the CIA to stand down covert operations in Tibet prior to his historic trip to China.
Slavin claimed that the two letters President Obama sent to the Supreme Leader constitute a serious offer of engagement, and questioned the comparison to Nixon’s opening to China. According to Slavin, China was prepared for an opening, while the Islamic Republic today is not.
The full video can be watched above or at this link.
– Ben Katcher
It is amazing to describe a movement as democratic who do not recognize the vote of the majority. Moreover Mrs Slavin did never reason on basis of facts, whereas Mr Leverett quoted facts and number which she just refused without any argument.
She just focused her saying on the events of Ashura, but did she miss that even Mr Mousavi and the reformists refuse the events on Ashura which majority took place by the opposition outside the Islamic Republic? The people in Iran want peace and economical prosperity, so many voters saw these in Mr Mousavi, but he brought the nation sanctions, pressures, terror (caused through his movement and the reaction of the state) and lack of credibility for investors in the world, and people know it well.
The problem in the West is that they do not define the green movement, who is the green movement? Does they really think the green movement in Iran accept the MKO and monarchists groups as their comrade? How can a policy based on a movement who is not unite and its strong part reject any US interfere and criticize Ahmadjinejad’s swap deal and proclaim never to give up uranium enrichment?
As an Iranian-American the American side in my hyphenated position has been for engagements since Bush presidency. However since this year’s June election in Iran my American side’s position has merged with my Iranian side.
How I have been able to merge my bipolar positions has been through an understanding that Iran’s nuclear program is still years aways from being turn to a weaponized program, while at the same time not ignoring the historic events since June that has clearly shown that for the first time since 1979 the legitimacy of Iran’s regime is facing some major challenges from within the country.
In my opinion if we have waited this long – why not another year. After all Iran’s regime is in no hurry to negotiate with America either. They thrive on this back and forth and on going ordeal with America.
All I have to say to Americans who think that Obama’s gestures and his administration outreach to Iranian regime and ruler has been weak is that show me another president that has done more. Moreover what Americans don’t know which I think Obama has learned is the art of negotiating with an Iranian.
That said I agree with Leverett that U.S. should not pursue a regime change policy on Iran. However as Slavin pointed out there are other small yet vital help that U.S. government can do that doesn’t include providing money to Tehrangeles TV stations or providing arms to opposition or separatist groups.
I was amazed to hear yet ANOTHER factual error on Flynt Leverett understanding of Iranian history when he suggested the number of death during the 1979 revolution. It wouldn’t be a big deal if he miss quoted or made a mistake on a factual events if he wouldn’t have comparing the events now with what happened in 1979 — but he constantly does.
From an essay by Reese Erlich, a leftist, vehement critic of US govt. policy, and staunch supporter of the Iranians fighting the system (note that this piece was written in June, hence his figure of 17 minimum dead). The figure is much higher now.
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2009/06/28-10
This is no academic debate or simply fodder for bored bloggers. Real lives are at stake. A repressive government has killed at least 17 Iranians and injured hundreds. The mass movement may not be strong enough to topple the system today but is sowing the seeds for future struggles.
The leftist critics must answer the question: Whose side are you on?
Iran’s pro-government rallies fool nobody CNN | Hamid Dabashi (Posted by: Free Iran)
The Ahmadinejad government responded to the courageous anti-government protests throughout Iran in December by cranking up its propaganda machine to stage pro-government rallies. But that tactic won’t work.
Some people [IND: We know who...] who saw this clumsily engineered carnival might be led to believe that Ahmadinejad’s government, and by extension the Islamic Republic that he represents, is widely popular — and that the Green Movement demanding civil liberties represents a small minority of Iranians. It does not.
Bloggers created a comparative chart: In one, the security forces beat people up, push them down from bridges over highways, shoot with live ammunition, throw tear gas; in the other, the same forces greet demonstrators warmly, provide them with buses, free food and drink, and redirect the traffic for their convenience.
None of this is to suggest that Ahmadinejad and his clerical godfathers have no popular support. They do. People’s livelihoods and paychecks depend on cooperating with such sinister carnivals.
The louder such rallies scream, the more the world can see how dangerously aware the custodians of the Islamic Republic are of their illegitimacy. Go to CNN.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/01/07/Dabashi.iran.staged.protests/
NPR SHUSTER: NPR: Shuster’s interview: (…)
Old one but highly infomative:
There has been an Islamic republic that has governed Iran for 30 years. And it’s a complex matter, this Islamic republic, because it’s a compromise between those who waged the Islamic revolution 30 years ago in Iran and who wanted a purely Islamic government, and many who wanted a more secular government that was democratic in nature. And this was a hybrid in effect.
And it managed to keep the clerics significantly imbued with political power for quite sometime. But it also created a lot of dissatisfaction.
Don’t forget the opposition that has emerged this year, it’s not the first time that there’s been a reform movement that has challenged the more entrenched hard line elements in the government. Mohammed Khatami was a reformer who was elected president in 1997 and reelected president in 2001. For eight years, Iran had a president at least who was trying to bring about political reform and he’s part of this movement now.
So, this has been a theme, a nexus of tension within Iran’s government for 30 years. And it may simply be “that at this point, these two strains of political thought are irreconcilable, or Iranian’s are having much greater difficulty now reconciling the two.
if we try to gauge it simply by counting numbers, the numbers of, yesterday, of pro-government demonstrators and the numbers of protesters in the streets on Sunday and previously, I don’t think that that necessarily gives us a really good gauge or what’s going on in Iran.
But you have to figure that the pro-government demonstrators, the government helped them get there. They provided buses. They gave them – many government workers the day off. They gave students the day off.
And most importantly, the police allowed them to demonstrate, whereas on Sunday, the riot police and the street militia were out in force and they used violence to try to stop the demonstrations – the protest demonstrations, and they occurred nevertheless.
So I think that we probably need other tools to gauge what’s really going on in Iran. And it seems to me there is – this is a political conflict. There is deep dissatisfaction with the government of Iran. There was deep disbelief last June when it was announced that Muhammad Ahmadinejad had overwhelmingly won reelection. There was cognitive dissonance in the streets. People didn’t believe that. They believed that the primary challenger, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, won.
And I think that in the face of government violence, the amount of violence that the government has mounted against the protests, I think we can get some idea of how deeply felt the protests are.
And we can at least say it is highly unlikely that they – that the government can stop them. The government thought that it could stop them, and it hasn’t. And now they will continue, or there may be people on both sides that look for some kind of a political solution. But it is a political conflict and a political problem …
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122107996
February 16, 2010 at 7:24 pm
The Savage Bullies in the Land of Art and Poetry
Watch this video to the end. See how the savage Special Units, totally remote from any humanity beat up a young protester. People are resigned to watch in horror until a few courageous women go to the help of the young man. Not that it makes any difference to these monsters. One of them fully geared in protective clothing and helmet and with a long truncheon does not even spare an old man. Utterly sickening bullies. When you see a regime supporter or a regime apologist, remember these images.
http://azarmehr.blogspot.com/2010/02/savage-bullies-in-land-of-art-and.html
Yes, ASDF, the clerics did not support Mossedegh. That’s the tragedy of 1953: had the CIA and MI6 left well enough alone, we would’ve had an Iran free of both the Shah and the tyranny of the clerics. One can easily imagine the difference this would have made to the development of U.S. policy in the region. Clearly, although we cannot delineate its exact parameters, the situation today would be radically different from what we are in fact facing. Nemesis!
Can we see a picture of 5000 buses parked somewhere in the vicinity of Tehran no recent picture is required any time in last 50 years will do even one with this many busses in vicinity of Iran is fine incase Iranian were not willing to participate and the regime had to import participants from abroad. Thank you
Kooshi: Iran for all intent and purposes is a Client state of Russia and China and doing their bidding. If Iran had one master 31 years ago, now it has two…nothing to be proud of…
Your hatred and xenophobia against the US has blinded you to reality.
The Old soviet Union has done more harm to Iran and has plundered Iranian national wealth, including territories than any other so-called powers.
I suspect you are a Toudehi commi relic peddling your old tired Bolshevik propaganda..
Bal beri, Payeen biyay,, you’re on the wrong side of history and your country..
31 years ago US did not need be in the Persian Gulf because Iran was its Gendarme of the Gulf” obviously when they lost Iran they need to pocket the bills themselves and not the Iranians, with events of Iran Iraq war and the new events of Iranian advancement with their military technology can you name a single Arab nation dare to attack Iran anytime soon to be more accurate according the General Mullen jus as recent as a few days ago not even US is prepared to take that risk. For the US the game is over They just need to come to term with what price they are willing to pay to the Iranian side without losing the rest of the Middle East. That’s what is making Israel insecure
To make it simple after the biggest foreign policy mess up of the generations US wants its own whole cake and eat it too
Iranian and Kooshi:
Those in lower strata of the society unfortuantely are easily manipulated, bought, exploited by wedge issues, as we see right here in America where the working class votes in the rural areas of the US votes against their own best Interest.
Read the book, “What’s the matter with Kansas”. By Thomas Frank
http://www.amazon.com/Whats-Matter-Kansas-Conservatives-America/dp/0805073396
Iranian: We all know that the IRI has supporters. You for example, a beneficiary of the system who understanbly wants to preserve it.
What dictatorship doesn’t have a “support base”? You don’t think the lousy regimes in Syria, Saudi Arabia, N Korea, and Egypt have a support base?
Eventually the costs of maintaining and subsidizing mercenaries and strict control over all aspects of society bring about the failure of these oppressive regimes; the only matter is how long it takes, depending, among other reasons, on the revenue flowing to the government – when your country is awash in oil export revenue, controlled by the government, “
First of all, you need to get your math and facts straight! because IR brought 5000 buses from around the country in to Shahyad Sq, if ea. bus takes 40 people that makes it 200k people and lets say another 100k showed up from all over Tehran…..mmmm….how many people is that Mr. math? When I add up I can’t even get close to Million let alone Millions! Now, remember the majority of these people were rentals! Meaning that the IR bribed these poor (as in their class) people to come to this sham celebration! The green movement is a winner! Especially they became victorious in the 22nd of Bahman by not coming to the streets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxHwpESlpqA&feature=player_embedded
Iranian and Kooshi:
As far as the Western powers are concerned I assure you they have no problem with the IRI. In fact the IRI is the best thing that happened to them and their profit margins.
A shallow minded person like yourself might only look at the empty slogans and the name calling in the media on both sides. But for me I look at the profit and who gains financially from all these. And that would be US and other Western Governments and their arms industry.
Thirty years ago US could only dream of bringing is aircraft carriers to Persian Gulf or controlling the oil flow to the rest of world but now they have a permanent base here accepted by the world including Russia and China. The profits of arms industry is stronger thant ever and all the scared Arab nation are returning their oil money to US by billions in trade for more weapons and US protection. Now! What could be better than that?
Of course they do not want to loose the crisis provided by IRI and their profit with it so they play along gladly
Now mate for God sake please think before writing such BS again. I know it hearts but TRY
“Irnaian”:
What happened in 22nd of Bahman was noting but a dictatorship paying its agents some with money and some with Sandis to put on a pathetic show.
If no one else knows I know very well because I live here.
5 days to the 22nd of Bahman all the major roads to Tehran were blocked and no civilian car was allowed to come to Tehran.
What you saw in the state media that day was the total number of government agents supporters Basijies Pasdars (Jire khoran) and other servants on the governments payroll.
Now the funny thing is that even to get enough number of them they had to ship these agents from all over the country to Tehran as the number of Tehran natives willing to participate in pro government demonstrations was next to zero. By the governments own estimate the number of people participating was around 1.5 million max now in a city like Tehran with 18 million population, you tell me how pathetic is that.
It is funny that even considering all the length that the government went into in order to fill the streets they still did not succeed and in the end has to force the public sector workers(teachers, bank employees local office workers) to participate by designating them particular seats in busses and making sure of their presence I say this as it happened to one of my friends who works in Shar- Daari, when the hefazat Etelaat (VEVAK) of his office informed him of his designated seat in the bus and insisting that he has to go or otherwise.
You see pal as far as we know the IRI is not the only dictatorship coming up with this sort of pathetic shows. We all remember similar demos and greeting shows in favour of one Saddam Hussein, the Shah, and we all know what happened to him.
As said in Persian “ in Hannah digar rangy nadarad” for those of you blogging from Langley it means “ your Henna no longer has any color “
Effectively what you are saying is that the many millions of people in Iran who came to the streets to support the Islamic Republic are ignorant fools. No one who knows a thing or two about Iran believes what you say. It’s obvious that there must be many things in the IRI that are positive that makes it so popular. Green propaganda can no longer fool the wise.
America’s Misguided Left
25 Jul 2009 00
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/07/americas-misguided-left.html
THERE IS NO DEMOCRACY IN IRAN UNDER THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.
There is no genuine opposition that is allowed to campaign freely and take part in elections in Iran. There is no candidate that is not vetted and hand-picked by a bunch of reactionary and unelected Mullahs. There is no president that is not subservient to the ultimate power and thoroughly undemocratic position of the Leader of the Revolution.
So called voting in Iran gets either one hand-picked IRI candidate to the sham post of the president or it gets another-picked IRI candidate to that position, In short, there is NO democracy in Iran. The whole thing is a sham and it insults the intelligence to suggest otherwise.
Claiming voting in the elections matters…
…can only be regarded as a cruel joke or a blatant attempt to pretend Iran under the rule of the Islamic Republic is a democracy.
IRI” crimes against humanity:
http://www.iranrights.org/
Mossadegh and the Coup of 1953. Who actually helped the Shah to overthrow Mossadegh??
None other than the clergies like Kashani. To this day, they don’t like to disucss Mossadegh and an street in his name in Tehran was changed to another name.
http://www.mohammadmossadegh.com/1953/
IRI Crimes against its own people:
http://www.iranhrdc.org/httpdocs/English/homepage.htm
Since the recent presidential [S]elections, the international community has had a real glimpse of the brutality and inhumanity of the Islamic Regime of Iran. We’ve seen peaceful protestors beaten, arrested and shot on the streets. We’ve heard reports of illegal arrests, torture and rape of protesters in Islamic Regime prisons. Scores of protesters have lost their lives under torture while at least three protestors have been sentenced to death because of their participation in the post [s]election protests.
What the international community needs to realize is that what we’ve seen in the past few months is nothing new. The Islamic Regime has been systematically arresting, torturing, raping and executing dissidents for the past 30 years.
Iranian people have not been silent in the face of severe persecution and brutality. For the past 30 years students, writers, journalists, women, workers, teachers and doctors just to name a few groups, have been fighting against the Regime in various ways. Iranian dissidents abroad have been fighting along their compatriots who are inside the country to make sure the voices of Iranian people are heard internationally.
The IRI “clerical-industrial doesn’t really really need any laws to do what they’ve been doing all along
The country is lawless. The laws in the Constitution are not taken seriously. If they followed the laws in the constitution of Iran, the country would have been a half decent democracy.
The ex-President of Iran, Rafsanjani is a wanted man in Argentina. In fact, if you’re not a thug in Iran, you will not move up the ladder of “success”.
http://iranian.com/main/blog/paymaneh-amiri/khavaran-silencing-dead
More signs regime enjoy “support”
Rapists in Iran
The Guardian / Mahmood Delkhasteh
16-Feb-2010
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/16/iran-rapist-assault-opposition
No more intimidation and death threats because the regime has a “support”???
Amir Reza Arefi Sentenced to Death
Reporters And Humanrights Activists In Iran
16-Feb-2010 (one comment)
RAHANA Prisoners’ Rights Unit – The 15th branch of the Revolutionary Court in Tehran found Amir Reza Arefi guilty of Moharebeh, and based on articles 186, 187, 189, 190, 191 and 46 of the Islamic Penal Law sentenced him to death. The 21-year-old Arefi is married and was arrested before the June presidential election on April 15th, 2009.Mohammad Mostafaie who represents Arefi, wrote on his blog. “On Sunday, February, 14, I was asked over the phone to go to the 15th branch of the Revolutionary Court on Tuesday, for a matter related to my client Amir Reza Arefi. The fact that I had been summoned over the phone worried me.
>>>
http://www.rhairan.net/en/?p=701
Babak Taheri: You should read William Engdhal. “A century of War” Or
Rosa Faiz:
Shah & Shaykh
The coming Iranian class wars: Those of us the people of Iran who will yield neither to the Shah nor to the Shaykh, will have to make an unambiguous stance
http://www.iranian.com/Faiz/2005/June/Class/index.html
Chomsky on Iranian.com
http://iranian.com/main/2010/feb-17
Watch Meir Javedanfar Response to Flynt Leverette (France24 Eng)
Watch 2nd Part Here (Where Flynt Leverette joins the debate)
Is Iran laying down the law to the rest of the world? Or struggling to keep down the protestors who flooded the streets last summer? FRANCE 24 goes beyond the official images to pose genuine questions that concern the world and the people of Iran. Nuclear programme, enriched uranium, sanctions: what does this all mean for ordinary Iranians – and for the world?
A debate with Mark Owen and guests:
Ramin PARHAM, Iranian intellectual and co-author of “L’Histoire secrete de la Révolution Iranienne” Raymond TANTER, Founder of Iran Policy Committee Meir JAVEDANFAR, Analyst at Meepas (via satellite from London) Borzou DARAGAHI, Los Angeles Times Middle East correspondent (by phone from Beirut)
http://www.france24.com/en/20100211-france-24-debate-iran-islamic-revolution-anniversary-protests-part2
I can not believe Slavin said its what “we” do, referring to America supporting human rights. I think she should read some Noam Chomsky. Or does she have amnesia and forget about 1953 CIA coup in Iran? 54 in Guetmala? 3 million massacred in Vietnam. Not even under Carter were they promothing human rights with 500,000 East Timorese killed. Not even under Clinton where he armed Turkey to slaughter the Kurds. Give us a break. The best thing US can do is stay out, for they have ZERO moral legitimacy. I mean ZERO!
rfjk: Are you privy to some inside information that we ought to know? Are you in touch with the IRI’s officials and they have promised that a grand bargain is acceptable to IRGC?? Please share…
Entire regime is the target
Opposition in Iran is no longer directed at supporting one section of the theocracy against the other. The days of the regime are numbered, say Yassamine Mather and Chris Strafford
http://www.cpgb.org.uk/worker/797/entireregime.php
I even heard that the Iranian Government was weatherboarding the demonstrators using Sundaes fruit drinks
What do the regime supporter think of a deal between the US and IRI:
“”We don’t need to make deals anymore. Our rights are NOT up for discussions. When Ahmadinejad states that we need to have a ” Jihadi” approach in our foreign policy, .
We hold all the top cards and the upper hand in most aspects of politics in the middle east. We are pursuing our nuclear technology legally and responsibly. We are doing our best to support our own industry under the imposed sanctions. This is what great nations do to become Great.–a supporter of the regime
What happened in 22nd of Bahman was noting but a dictatorship paying its agents some with money and some with Sandis to put on a pathetic show.
If no one else knows I know very well because I live here.
5 days to the 22nd of Bahman (feb 11) all the major roads to Tehran were blocked and no civilian car was allowed to come to Tehran. IRGC called hundreds of household a few days before and threatned the entire families not to participate.
What you saw in the state media that day was the total number of government agents supporters Basijies IRGC lackeys and their cronies (Jire khoran) and other servants on the governments payroll.
Fiorangela Leone said:
“Slavin used to be a credible resource; she is no longer; she recites Likud talking points.”
She never was. A consequence of neocon failure was their loss of credit and reputation, which now requires these closet, weaker units of the Israeli Lobby to run interference for the state of Israel.
Actually, this argument between what the Iranian opposition is or isn’t is the least useful of the entire dialog regarding US/Iranian relations. Its not as important as Slavin makes it, nor is it as immaterial as Flynt describes it.
Fiorangela thank you for the posting of the video of the Azadi square, I got to admit that like all good Americans I am astonished by show of brutality and violence by these security personnel.All this brutality despite busing people in and force feeding them with drinks and food and having their kids play soccer on the lawns.
That was an excellent debate. I of course agree with Leverett, but I think Slavin raised two very important points. First, as regards the parallel with Nixon’s opening to China (a comparison I too have made in the past), I have to agree that China then needed partnership with the U.S. more than Iran does now. At least it appears so — I would love to see someone explore this issue in more depth. Second, I too question just how sincere the Iranians are about the fuel swap. F.L. had some good comments in response, but I do tend to think that the Iranians are simply playing games with us. Difficult to come to a firm conclusion on this; we shall have to wait upon events, I suppose.
I was pleased that F.L. included J.Q. Adams’ famous quote. I used it in a review I wrote some years back of John Lukacs’ little bio (he actually called it a “study in character”) of George Kennan. This sentiment should be expressed to the American audiences at every opportunity.
Mr. Leverette: Is it any wonder, you are not taken seriously by the Obama Adminstration???
What kind of a leftist would support IRI?
http://iranian.com/main/blog/mitra-northcal/what-kind-leftist-would-support-iri
Someone has videotaped the Google Earth image. It shows the hundreds of buses which brought the so called “pro-government” demonstrators to Azadi Square on 22 Bahman. You can watch it here:
http://culturallogic.blogspot.com/2010/02/blog-post_11.html
You can see parts of the Google image of Tehran at 10:47 a.m. on February 11, 2010 (22 Bahman) here:
http://arteshesabz.blogspot.com/2010/02/22_12.html
Kooshi:
Look at the desperate measures your thieving regime took to partially fill Azadi. Look at what the basij thugs did to old man Karroubi. So frightend of an old man they had to paintball him, throw tear gas in his face and try and stab him. Your regime is weak and frightend. The outcome of 22 Bahman was to confirm the real MINORITY is the regime supporters. The green movement showed resilience and dignity – they are real patriotic Iranians. Not regime parasites like you. And what was that joke with the journalists?? That PR stunt completely backfired.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/02/-opinion-many-had.html
Wake UP!
Iranians’ average income in 2001 was 40% lower than it was in 1976!!!!! What other countries’ income has fallen 40% from 1976 to 2001??? If you can name me one such other country, I would very much like to hear it (and bear in mind, Shah’s regime enjoyed high oil prices only from 1973-1978; Iran made more oil money in the 4 years of Ahmadinejad, the cutthroat Man of the People, than the 8 years under Khatami, phony Turbaned reformer. The murderers running Iran killed an exponentially greater number of Iranians in the years 1981-1982 alone than the Shah did in the years 1941-1979. You want to discuss red herrings? I’ll remember that the next time Ahmadinejad predicts the fall of the US, the imminent collapse of Israel or boasts about Iran joining the ranks of elite countries.
This by far was the most militarized celebration of the failed revolution in its history. The entire city was under siege by IR terrorist storm troopers backed by Chinese anti civilian vehicles. They built a fortress around the thief president, didn’t even come close to filling in that fortress, and had to resort to beating and attacking and arresting everybody outside that fortress.
Meanwhile look at the people who despite open government threats, shutdown of communications, world’s most severe assault on the press, execution of people on arbitrary charges, they still came out and confronted this illegitimate government.
This government cannot even pretend to be legitimate anymore. The cat is out of the bag, and history is in the making. It is only a matter of time.
By Potkin Azarmehr:
So How Many Turned up for Pro-Government Rally?
It wasn’t 200 ‘journalists’ who were hand picked and granted visas by Ahmadinejad’s junta to report the 31St anniversary of the revolution, it was 200 scribes. There is a difference between a journalist and a scribe of course. A true journalist goes out of his way and gets the news regardless of whether the government likes it or not, a scribe on the other hand is the likes of Jim Muir, the former BBC correspondent in Iran who for years sat in his office and regurgitated the official news that he was given to report.
On 11th Feb, the images of the pro-government rally that were beamed to the outside world were provided by the Iranian state TV. In fact there were two film footages which kept repeating, both close shots and both with the sound muted, there were no aerial views shown. One still photoshoped image was also shown every now and then in between the two repeated film footages.
Thank God because of our courageous citizen journalists, we don’t have to rely on these scribes however.
Here is one footage which shows the rest of the Azadi Sq. the side that the close up shots did not show. Is the crowd so huge that as we say in Persian, you couldn’t drop a needle between them? Are the crowd determined revolutionaries who are listening to the speech of their leader with all their heart? Hardly so, judge for yourself:
http://azarmehr.blogspot.com/2010/02/so-how-many-turned-up-for-pro.html
Having shipped so many of the people from outside Tehran, it was even worse in the other cities, here is the pro-government rally in Tabriz:
See the videos at the link.
An Iranian Civil Rights Movement?
by IAN MORRISON
15 Feb 2010 20:202 Comments
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/02/an-iranian-civil-rights-movement.html
here’s link to a video of the Square that Fatemeh Keshavarz posted on her blog, Windows on Iran:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6soGKkVgwWM&feature=player_embedded
I especially liked the kids playing soccer. really scary.
Why North Tehranis Don’t Revolt
by CORRESPONDENT in Tehran
14 Feb 2010 23:1829 Comments”So what’s the talk among your colleagues?” a repatriate friend of mine asks, a reminder that he uses me as a measure for the sentiment among everyday Iranians.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/02/why-north-tehranis-dont-revolt.html
Do the Math!
http://www.rahesabz.info/picstories/tehran_iran_02...
Azadi or Freedom square is 50,000 square meter (see azadi tower in wiki). that area is equal to 538,196 square feet. if each person fits into one square foot and if you subtract the area of the actual azadi tower and the area for the reporters and “khavas”, then at most half million people can fit into the square. fair indicated that there is google pictures of the demonstrations. i haven’t seen it myself (i searched). if he could tell us where to find the picture, then we can see if the crowd actually filled the square and if it spilled into the adjoining avenues that intersect the square.
For the first time in 31 years, the government had to build a fortress and celebrate its own existence inside that fortress while beating people outside the walls.
The only thing in ruins is any semblance of support for the regime and any claim it has to legitimacy by any measure- even its own. Yesterday was a victory for the Iranian people.
http://azarmehr.blogspot.com/2010/02/so-how-many-turned-up-for-pro.html
To shut down opposing views,crack old lady’s heads and shoot protestor’s,Shut down the press,bus in the Rallier’s and claim ‘revered’ Nuclear Power.
The opposition’s success yesterday as always was seen in the Regimes Complete desperation.
We in the ‘West’ are completely devastated… Not..
But it’s more like the people of Iran are by totalitarianism..
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed to deliver a “punch in the mouth” to those who might exercise their right to peaceful dissent today during Iran’s national holiday. But a “punch” is a far cry from the two executions recently carried out for the same reasons.
Today during Iran’s Victory of the Revolution Day, when words like “revolution”, “independence” and “freedom” are on everyone’s lips, fears of torture, repression and death still remain.
The shock is still very much palpable over the two horrific hangings that took place in Iran just weeks ago. The two hanged men became the “fall guys” for the post-Presidential election violence that consumed the streets of Iran last summer. This happened despite the fact that the accused men were nowhere near the widespread demonstrations – they were already in prison!
Now fear mounts again that 9 more men will hang based on similarly outrageous charges. Help focus Iran’s attention on its real problem. Urge Iran to stop the executions.
http://takeaction.amnestyusa.org/siteapps/advocacy/index.aspx?c=jhKPIXPCIoE&b=2590179&template=x.ascx&action=13726&ICID=E1002A01&tr=y&auid=5929644
LIZ :LOL
You only wish…
The most important accomplishment yesterday was the proof that a few can force the government into a defensive mode and news blockade. The entire city of Tehran was under seige. No Internet, gmail. blogspot. texting…so on..
Considering the 850,000 families in and around Tehran and suburbs that are one way or another on governments handouts (not including government employees) so, it is no surprise that regime was able to recruit enough people to go for a healthy walk on a day with low traffic.
But the harbinger of success and unity that is being built up was the fact that people were able to force the backward regime to block Google, Blogspot, Gmail, local newspapers and many other news organizations from reporting anything about the party crashers. People proved that they are strong enough to force government into defensive mode, and they achieved that without exploding a single bomb or burning a cinema or killing a police officer. A few thousand united people were able to shake the rotten pillars fo theocracy without any need from Mussavi (the absent petite Imam), Sazegara (new Vogue) or Nourizadeh (the man in search of paternal home), Reza (quarter-Pahlavi) or anyone else.
People are rising on their own accounts and it was so great to hear their voices in the Persian radios.
It’s pretty obvious that the Green Movement was soundly defeated. The very fact that they claimed the anneversary of the Revolution would be their day, and instead millions of people were on the streets of Tehran (and many millions elsewhere in the country) supporting the IRI, means that there only power base is in Washington.
My greatest fear was of massive killings of demonstrators and a blood bath. IRR was very prepared and willing to do it. My own friends had told me not to expect a big turnout. Mothers were not going to let their children go to their deaths. Thankfully we did not get a bloodbath. I am glad we did not get Tinneman Square. It would have possibly put back the anti IRR movement by years. Instead the pro democracy movement chose to live to fight another day.
You don’t go around announcing you huge demonstrations months ahead and expect the government not to be ready for them. So of course the IRR was ready. People did the right thing and did not play into the IRR hands. The time to hit IRR is when they are off guard and least expect it.
We are in this for a long haul. The IRR carried the day yesterday. But all it takes is one slip; one mistake and they are done for. As we speak the US Senate is tightening the noose around the neck of IRR.The diaspora is not that different from those in Iran. We are the same people. When I talk to people who just got here they feel the same as I do. The one thing we have achieved is to get more Iranians specially in diaspora to support tougher sanctions on IRR. Organizations which were up to now neutral like NIAC are being voicing stronger opposition to IRR. The only people who support the IRR as their basiji cronies and the old left wing ex Mojahed/Fadayi members right here in the US, ex-commie Toudehi previously funded by Russia.
Sorry I forgot to include Marcia Miller to the list of Lost Credibility Reporters she is the queen
Is it any wonder, L. got persuaded by Rice to resign??
Good job Rice…
Nayereh Tohidi
1979 Revolution and the Green Movement
Professor in the Gender and Women’s Studies Department at California State University, Northridge:
Part I:
http://www.iranian.com/main/2010/feb/nayereh-tohidi
Kooshi?? Or Cyrus Safdari?? The News editor of Caspian headquarterd in Tehran??
She got a new job with a new mandate, she got to parrot what she is told, the system works and is setup that you start with making some realistic assertions for a while and gain credibility once you have made to be a fair credible reporter then you are used to pass the propaganda to the public, in that regard she is doing her job, you can mess up and go overboard too soon and end up like Amir Tahri. Very standard technique noting new in there
Defeat only for the unrealistic ones
by Mammad on Thu Feb 11, 2010 01:42 PM PST
Today’s events do not represent a defeat for the Green Movement. If on the anniversary of the revolution, that brought to power a political system that is supposedly supported by the majority of the people, the government must blanket Tehran with tens of thousands of security forces, intelligence agents, Basij militia, and plainclothe officers just to prevent expression of opposition, what kind of “victory” it is for the government? It is, in fact, a great victory for the GM.
This was a defeat only for those who exaggerate things, who claime that the hardliners’ demise is imminent, etc. I have always said, and repeat again:
1. The struggle for democracy, including the struggle of the GM, is not a project that starts on a certain date and ends on a certain date, but rather a process; it is not a sprint, but rather a Marathon.
2. The hardliners and their supporters do not have any place to go, unlike the Shah’s supporters who moved to Europe and US. Therefore, these guys will not give up power easily. The plitical structure will change ONLY when even they become convinced that the present power structure is no longer tenable, and it is not even in their interest and survival for the system to continue. If the premise is correct, then the struggle will necessarily be long and tough.
But, we will get there.==DR. Mohammad Sahimi
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/02/akbar-ganji-on-post-imperialism-in-iran.html
More nonsense by the Leverettes:
“”
As to the rest of it, little has changed in the parochial argument which focuses on (often justifiably) overt-covert US/Israli policy; but not on internal Iranian dynamics as the cumulative affect of 30-31 years, or a broader view of the history of the Reform movement spanning back over a decade. Though, you may in fact know, and would like to elaborate how this was part of a US/Zionist plot as well – which has shades of condescension to it. How this drew not upon a long history of over a century of numerous movements, but was instead orchestrated in an office by George Soros or Bernard Lewis and neocon gang.
Critiques of Western hypocrisy and counterproductive foreign policy and covert acts have their place, but not at the cost of glossing over the IRI’s internal track-record. And the trend I often see is the recognition, also correct, that Iran is caricatured in the MSM to produce hysteria (particularly regarding the nuclear issue). However; bending over backwards to overcompensate the other way and summarily dismiss human rights violations, et cetera (or blame the victim for forcing their hand, like in Seattle), or arguing by such deflections (insert Israel/Gaza here) is equally intellectually dishonest as the views you deride (though I do not accuse you of doing this, I merely speak of rhetorical habits I’ve observed).
I tend to take Pedestrian’s view, as hers corresponds with all other material I’ve read concerning the sensitivity of such questions over the phone (which is hardly a phenomenon limited to the post-election events). And, even were I to accept the poll, I still opposed the Iraq invasion even after Bush was reelected (nor was I ever personally threatened by police truncheons in anti-war marches), and doubt the South would have polled well about desegregation during the American Civil Rights Movement. They do not have to accept repression and the abridgement of Constitutionally guaranteed rights, even if AN did win. That is an absurd demand which would follow your reductionist line of reasoning”"
I confess, I can’t watch Slavin anymore. She’s become too personally involved, too anti-IRI. Listening to her is very much like listening to a disgruntled exile.
That’s what’s so fresh about the Leverrets. A sound, objective approach; advocating from the perspective of US policy, not from that of certain disgruntled Iranians, neocons or the Israel lobby.
Slavin’s closing comments were also disingenuous. She said something to the effect, “US is not setting up air bases in Iranian territory.” True as narrowly framed. What IS occurring, however, is that:
~Germany is selling submarines to Israel, the subs are expected to be capable of nuclear retrofit, they’re intended to patrol Persian Gulf.
~US is ginning up an arms race in the Arab states, using the “threat” posed by Iran as a goad to induce Arab sheiks to buy US weapons and training.
In my opinion, Slavin and the POV she represents is disappointed that there was no Neda event that could be pointed to as an example of the brutality of the Iranian government: “if it bleeds it leads,” and the Iranian leadership was crafty enough — or principled enough — not to shed the blood of its citizens for Slavin to gloat over.
Pittsburgh during the G 20 was a police state. Roads, bridges, businesses, city government were closed/blocked with police, military, dogs. Several churches and fields on the immediate perimeter of the convention center were ringed with razor wire and loaded with weapons and armored vehicles.
Dr. Leverett is correct, Obama’s gestures to Iran were weak at best, were disingenuous at least, were arguably a “gotcha” strategy: read the papers Michele Flournoy drafted, framing the “game changing” strategy that was DESIGNED to fail and to put the onus for that failure on Iran’s leadership. www dot cnas.org/node/18
Slavin used to be a credible resource; she is no longer; she recites Likud talking points. Her complaints about Iran’s internal affairs really have no bearing on US foreign policy: Iran’s internal conflicts are Iran’s affair to solve; they are really not related to the nuclear issue; that is a red herring that Slavin should know — Israeli leaders announce regularly that “the issue is not nukes, the issue is the regime — it must change.” Slavin disrespects her audience when she insists on one hand that nukes are a problem, then slip in “Hezbollah…Hamas…” ahh, there’s the rub.
I’d like to see a crisp chronology of Israel’s demonization campaign against Iran: it started in 1992 with Ephraim Sneh’s report to Knesset, and came to the US via AIPAC in 1995 (Ahmadinejad was a prof. of civil engineering in 1992; not president until 2005).