U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates testified yesterday before the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington yesterday about what he described as Russia’s “schizophrenic” Iran policy, see here. According to Gates—who started his career in government service during the 1960s as a Soviet analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency—then-Russian President (now Prime Minister) Vladimir Putin told him three years ago, during a meeting in Moscow, that “he considered Iran Russia’s greatest national security threat”. But yet, as Gates underscored for the senators, “they have these commercial interests in Iran that go back more than 20 years”. Asked by a senator to explain what seemed to him an internally conflicted Russian policy toward the Islamic Republic, Gates responded that “you’ve just put your finger on a kind of schizophrenic Russian approach to this”: on the one hand, “they recognize the security threat that Iran presents, but then there are these commercial opportunities, which frankly, are not unique to them in Europe”.
Rather than describing Russia’s Iran policy as “schizophrenic”, we prefer to analyze Russia’s Iran policy as an ongoing attempt by decision-makers in Moscow to balance among multiple—and, in some cases, potentially competing—interests vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic. (To be fair, Gates also referred to the “balancing act” embodied in Russia’s Iran policy in his remarks to the Senate committee.) But the way in which Russia strikes this balance has shifted in some significant ways over the last year or so. We will write more about Russia’s Iran policy next week, in connection with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Washington to meet with President Obama.
–Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett
DWZ,
I think you make a significant mistake to be so hostile toward Russia for delayingdelivery of the S-300 missile system, and for voting for the latest round of sanctions.
If you were to talk to Medvedev or Putin, how would you explain Iran’s enrichment of uranium to 20% during this past year? (I assume I understand correctly that Iran is not able to provide fuel to the Tehran research reactor, even if it has sufficient 20% U.)
DWZ,
I had hoped Russia and China would not support the latest round of sanctions against Iran adopted by the UN. However, I fully expected both countries to support the latest sanctions. This does not mean the sanctions serve a useful purpose, apart from providing some cover to politicians in the USA needing to show they are being “tough” on Iran.
I deplore the subservience the US Congress shows to the government of Israel. I see this as a direct threat to the national security of the US itself.
DWZ,
Russia and China support Iran’s right to enrich uranium for domestic nuclear power plants.
There is an obvious question whether Iran serves itself well, in enriching tons of LEU, when there is no use for the LEU for a number of years to come.
Look at Russian’s position: Down with Russia
Pukhov, director of the Center for Strategies and Technologies Analysis, said the shipment would be frozen “unconditionally.”
“The same is true regarding other Russian-Iranian joint military and technological projects,” he insisted. “Moreover, the situation makes it impossible to keep technical service of the Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missiles already supplied.”
Igor Korotchenko, head of the Center for Analysis of Global Arms Trade, suggested Russia compensate losses by signing new agreements with Iraq and Afghanistan.
Korotchenko told the RIA Novosti news agency that “Russia can compensate her lost profits by signing the new contracts on supplying Iraq and Afghanistan armies with helicopters, armored vehicles, hand guns and the weaponry.”
For Russia, it was very risky to continue shipments of the S-300 missiles to Iran, as Western powers might decide to strike Iranian nuclear and defense facilities, which could seriously deteriorate Russia-West relations, the expert said.
http://world.globaltimes.cn/in-depth/2010-06/541062_2.html
DOWHN WITH WHOEVER WANTS TO HARM IRAN. WE BRING NOTHING BUT DESTRUCTION ON STOOGES OF ZIONISM IN WASHINGTON. SHAME ON AMERICA
{The pundit also urged Moscow not to renege on a deal to deliver S-300 defense systems to Iran, and to reassess its current policies.}
Russia has insulted Iran and Iranians by breaking its own agreement AGAINS and has cancelled the delivery of S300 defense system to Iran, while is selling to other countries. They announced earlier that the new sanction does not prevent Russia to sell S-300, but Russia is working with Israel against Iran. That’s why Iranians consider Russia an enemy of Iran and are waiting for an opportunity to stick a knife on Russia’s back, a piece of their own medicine. We never forget, ever.
DOWN WITH ENEMY OF IRAN.
James canning:
{Are you claiming Russia does not seek stability and peace in the Middle East?}
Only the United States and Israel do not SEEK STABILITY AND PEACE. They want to expand their influence all over the world through destabilization and war.
Russia, on the other hand, is not in a position of great influence to be able to control the United States movement, thus, she is trying to cash in as much as possible by taking advantage of the present situation due to stupid policy. However, denying Iran of her rights to enrichment should not be an American’s policy but is Israel’s policy which is identical with Russian position, where they have sold it to Washington for more concessions.
Iran is not a threat to any country but Israel, an apartheid state is. Israel thinks a nuclear Iran will challenges Israel’s position as a regional power and compromises its project to establish “greater Israel” from Mauritania to Afghanistan. Are you familiar with ODED YINON “A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties” ?
Russia wants to see Iran be dependent on Russia in order to be able to control Iran and gain many concessions in addition to limit Iran’s ability to compete in the area of gas and oil transfer to regional countries as well as Europe.
The stupid policy of the United States on Iran gives Russia a FREE HAND.
Please read the following poll:
Some 82 percent of respondents to a Russian radio poll have said they deem Moscow’s approval of fresh UN Security Council sanctions against Iran a “mistake.”
The poll, conducted during a live Radio Moscow interview with Rajab Safarov, director of the Center for Contemporary Iranian Studies, comes one week after the Security Council voted to impose a fourth round of sanctions against Iran, tightening financial and military restrictions on the Islamic Republic.
The poll shows that 82 percent of respondents “assess Moscow’s support of Western anti-Iran policies as well as the ‘Yes’ vote against the country at the Security Council as a mistake,” RIA Novosti’s Persian service reported Wednesday.
“The US and the West are seeking to lure Moscow over to their side, but this is not to Russia’s advantage, since in the end Russia will pay the loss,” Safarov was quoted as saying.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=130887§ionid=351020602
DWZ,
I completely agree with you that a weakened Iran is not in the best interests of the US. I think a prosperous, stable Iran is in the best interests of the region and the world for that matter.
DWZ,
I am keenly aware of the utter stupidity of the Obama administration in pursuing sanctions while totally dropping the ball as regards negotiating fairly and intelligently with Iran. I am also keenly aware of idiot “Israel-firsters” in the Obama administration, who make concessions to Russia in effort to obtain support for foolish sanctions programme.
DWZ,
I have a fairly good understanding of the relations between the Persian Empire and Russia over the past several centuries, and relations during the past century or so.
Are you claiming Russia does not seek stability and peace in the Middle East?
My comment is for James Canning.
Your analysis of Russian’s position on Iran is flawed and extremely childish. You should research into history of Iran/Russia relations before expressing your opinion on this issue.
I am waiting to read Leverett’s analysis of Russian’s belligerent treatment of Iran.
When Putin was asked to explain for Russian insult on Iran he said: Russian policy regarding Iran is based on ‘national interest’ which supported by Russian elite. It is necessary to say that Russia has close relations with ISRAEL and they do cooperate behind the scene against Muslims. DON’T BELIEVE RUSSIA FOR A SECOND THAT IS PRO PALESTINIAN. There position on Palestine is IDENTICAL WITH ISRAEL AND US MEANING AGAINST HAMAS AND PRO ZIONIST SERVANT ‘Palestinian authority’. They support Israel’s blockade on Gaza. Russians try to hide their intensions but cannot fool anyone except themselves. Russians are anti Muslims because they want to continue to occupy their territories and have great influence in other country where are not under Russian occupation. Majority of Muslims know they cannot trust Russia, like the United States.
Palestine would have not been partitioned if Russia did not vote for partition of Palestine. At the time of voting many countries including Turkey, Iran, India, China, Greece, England DID NOT VOTE FOR THE PARTITION OF PALESTINE in 1948 BUT RUSSIA DID. Russians, after the United States, are the most racist regarding Palestinian struggle, because Zionist Jews have influential among the political elites in Russia.
Iranian people are very angry and VIEW RUSSIA AS ENEMY due to Russian behavior against Iran. Russia has charged Iran billions of dollars to build a reactor which should have been completed 11 years ago but they have not done it and THEY FELL IS UP TO THEM. They have signed agreement with Iran yet they insult Iran and do not deliver. The reactor and S-300 are few to note. THEY HAVE NO SHAME. This is NOT ACCEPTABLE but Russians think they can INSULT IRANIANS AND CHARGE BILLIONS OF DOLLAR FOR without any retaliation. Iran should kick all Russians out of Iran, the sooner the better. Russian policy on Iran legal enrichment program is identical with Israelis, but due to Zionist lobby and their puppets in Washington, black and white, Russia was able to sell her policy to the stooges at the WH in return for more concessions which is against American’s interest. Thus, Russia LOVES the belligerent policy against Iran to continue.
Putin and other Russian political elite view Iran with 7000 years of civilization as an obstacle to their lust for power in the region, since Persian language and culture still is alive in the region.
Russia like Israel does not want Iran to be advanced in technology; rather they want a weak and dependent Iran to back Russian’s lust for power.
A weaken Iran is AGAINST the United States’ interest but the stooges in Washington have not been able to recognize this basic fact since advisors from Israel Lobby, Dennis Ross and others, tell them the opposite to protect the interest of Israel and Russia.
Persians may be patient but they will NEVER FORGET THOSE WHO HAVE INSULTED THEM AND TOOK ADVANTAGE OF THEM at the critical time to strengthen Iran’s enemy. Russia never tries to improve the relations between US and Iran, on the contrary, Russia has benefited greatly from the situation brought by the Zionists and they appreciate it.
As matter of the fact, it was Israelis who injected Russia to play a more dynamic role to weaken Iran to force her to surrender because Zionist agents as ‘advisor’ to Obama ordered him to give more concessions to Russia to bring Russia on board against Iran which he carried out Israel’s order. These stooges are not leader, rather they are SERVANT. The Zionist advisor told Obama Iran issue can be solved through MOSCOW. Where have you been?
Arnold Evans…
Let us not get involved into the ‘pewGlobal’ or other survey groups or hundreds of ‘think tank’ like CFR, S.I.T.E., Memri, etc. because they’re part of the problem against Islamic Republic.Have you seen ‘Global Peace Index’ being mentioned in the Washington Post or New York Times or Wall Street Journal of Foreign Policy, etc. – because its 2009 edition puts Israel as the most dangerous country to live in – followed by two US Occupied countries, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Israel: World’s 4th most dangerous country
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/israel-worlds-4th-most-dangerous-country/
Eric,
Who was the senator who saw an “apparent condradiction” between Russia’s business dealings with Iran, and Russian wishes that Iran might be a “threat”? There is no contradiction.
Russia believes the US is foolish in trying to isolate Iran. The stupidity of the US Congress in dealing with Iran, in effect is covered up by Bob Gates – - who should have pointed out there is no contradiction in Russian policy, apparent or otherwise. Period. Full stop.
Against War Crimes,
Russia has tried for years to improve US relations with Iran, in the interests of peace and stability in the Middle East.
Russia would like to see an end to the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Golan Heights. This is also the policy of the government of Iran.
Bob Gates of course would not point out the above facts to the US Congress.
eppie,
Bob Gates indeed has achieved the top position by gratifying the need, on the part of armaments manufacturers, their legions of lawyers and lobbyists, and paid politicians, “retired” generals, admirals, et al., to dupe the American public into allowing the squandering of trillions of dollars on useless or unnecessary armaments. Not to mention unnecessary wars. Gates protects powerful vested interests and facilitates the continuing defrauding of the ignorant, lazy and rather stupid American public.
Arnold,
Your figures may suggest Bob Gates was trying to deceive the US Congress about what “threat” was posed by Iran, to Russia.
Gates might have mentioned that his foolish continuing push for an ABM system in Eastern Europe, is a large part of the explanation for Russian distrust of the US.
Why should Russians consider Iran as an enemy? Iran has done nothing but giving them many economic concession that THEY DON’T DESERVE. Iran never invaded Russian territory but Russia has invaded Iranian territory and occupied some for many centuries and the few for short time. Iran has not attack any country more than 180 years. It is Russia that cooperates with enemy of Iran, Israel, the united sates and their extension NATO AGAINST IRAN to keep Iran weak to gain concessions from both US and Iran due to stupid foreign policy of the United States under influence of Israel Lobby.
As long as the United States run by Zionist stooges and has not produced a LEADER of her own, American will suffer and Muslims around the world will be killed by war criminals where Americans will ignore it with their silence. The stupid policy of the United States is beneficial to Israel, Russia, India and China not American people. AMERICAN MUST RISE AND FORCE THE PUPPETS, BLACK AND WHITE, OUT OF POWER.
Three percent of Russians consider Iran their main enemy. 8 percent of Russians consider Iran one of their top three enemies. (35 and 46% consider the US their main enemy or top three).
There are eight countries considered one of Russia’s top three enemies more widely than Iran.
http://pewglobal.org/2010/06/17/obama-more-popular-abroad-than-at-home/10/
Russia is an enemy of Iran and Muslims. Due to stupidity of Zionist puppet in Washington, black and white, Russia with the help of the 5th column, Israel Lobby, was able to obtain many concessions from the stooges in Washington. Russia wants the status quo to continue because Russia knows this stupid policy has gives Russia so much power to manipulate Iran to extract $$$ from Iranian people in return for NOTHING.
Russia has taken billions of dollars to complete Bushehr reactor but has chosen not to do it and postpone it for 11 years. Iranians HATE Russia for what Russian government has done to Iran and are waiting for an opportunity to stick a knife on Russian back, a piece of their own medicine.
Russia continues her stupid game with Iran and has voted AGAINST THE LEGAL ENRIDHMENT PROGRAM along with Iran’s enemies which is her own policy. Russians think this situation is going to continue forever. The party is coming to an end because of Iranian policy based on people’s interest, Russia will suffer in the long term because no one will forget what they have done in cooperation with Israel and the United States. Iran has suffered a lot but has been able to strengthen the culture of resistance against invaders and occupiers including in the region in favor of Palestinian struggle.
Russian might have gained few concessions but has lost its credibility with the people in the region for long time to come. Russia knows America with broken economy and huge debts is not able to stay forever to kill. Russia has cooperation with US and Israel against Muslims and has NO OBJECTION against war crimes activity against Muslims in the region
The culture of resistance in the region will destroy American influence in the region in the future. People of the region are fed up with US crimes against humanity and American people are held responsible since majority of Americans are silent against these crimes committed on a daily basis. It is shameful.
As another commentator noted, the picture is great. I’ve noticed before that this site picks great pictures, pictures that by themselves are almost an article!
Ok, come on, let’s get a little bit real here. Does Putin really see Iran as Russia’s greatest security threat? No, that’s completely laughable. What this Gates story about Putin shows, similarly to the eye-gazing love moment Putin supposedly shared with W, is Putin’s contempt for the cretinous US foreign policy establishment. He gives the idiots what they want, knowing they’ll buy it. And they damn well do. With Gates, it’s especially easy, as Gates himself has built a career out of being an quisling who tells idiots in the US foreign policy establishment what they want to hear. And what do they want to hear? Well, basically it’s anything that will keep the military spending gusher going.
But the relationship between Russia and Iran is indeed a twisted and dark one. The pattern we have seen over and over is that Russia reassures Iran, and then betrays Iran, yet reassures Iran that it is doing its best, only to betray Iran again. We’ve seen the Caspian security umbrella agreement that came to nothing, the s-300 deal delayed again and again and again and again, the Bushehr reactor delayed again and again and again and again… as another commentator said, Iran is clearly nothing but a pawn to Russia. Perhaps the most important manipulation of Iran perpetrated by Russia has to do with the Bushehr reactor delays. I don’t doubt that Russia always has technical excuses for these delays, but the consequences for Iran is that, because of Russia, it ends up sitting on a pile of enriched uranium for which it has no evident use. Remember, if the Bushehr reactor were finished, Iran could put that uranium to use, or – even if Bushehr takes a different kind of fuel – Iran’s explanation that it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes, with other reactors planned, would be much solidified.
This delaying of Bushehr by Russia is the rankest sort of betrayal by Putin. The fact that Iran is sitting on a stockpile of enriched uranium with no outlet for peaceful use is invariably the main argument – in terms of public debate – for concern about Iran’s ‘intentions’. And after setting Iran up this way, Russia has the flaming gall to turn around and chide Iran for not being ‘responsible’ in demonstrating the peaceful intentions that Russia blocks Iran from demonstrating.
This secret, but all to obvious, set-up policy by Russia parallels the US policy, going back decades, of blocking Iranian nuclear plant developement. In essence, Iran is so deeply committed to uranium enrichment because it has been denied the rest of its nuclear energy program by the very same nation, the US, that has prevented it from fully manifesting a peaceful program. Enrichment is all Iran has left. To give this up would be an abject surrender to the US and I’m sure every Iranian knows it. For Russia to effectively block Iran’s remaining active nuclear energy project is cynical beyond belief.
Why would Russia do this? As we’ve seen lately, Iran is finally getting wise to the devious dealings of Russia, though it is not prepared for a final bridge-burning. Much of the non-aligned world must also be noticing this betrayal of Iran, and must be getting the message that Russia is not to be trusted. And without the leverage that being a non-aligned leader gives Russia vs. the US, doesn’t Russia turn into a lap dog for the US? Why yes it does. So why?
The best explanation I’ve seen is that Russia wants to play both sides against Iran (note that Russia is playing more heavily against Iran than for Iran), because US and EU sanctions against Iran keep Iranian oil and gas out of western markets. Russia wants those markets. No doubt Russia would love to see those sanctions slowly and steady ratcheted up over years, but it most likely would shed no tears if war broke out. Were the Straits of Hormuz closed, Russia’s hydrocarbons would surely shoot up in value, and Russia would look like a more stable source.
Putin appears to be a highly intelligent man, very sophisticated about international relations, and about real-politik, not burdened by any scruples whatsoever. He is a man amongst children when he deals with the US ‘elites’, it seems; but the trajectory of his policy seems to subordinate Russia to the Nato-associated alliance, to the US. Presumably, he has a large financial stake in this. It remains to be seen if decision makers in Iran are able to take what they can from Russia, while remaining wary, hip to the ongoing betrayal that is Putinian policy.
Who is the real threat the world peace? A 2003 survey taken among 15 EU countries (500 from each country) – 59% of the partcipants named Israel and not Islamic Republic as the greatest threat to the world. Iran has not invaded any of its neighboring countries for the last 150 years – while Israel has invaded every neighboring country of its in the last 60 years. The US maintains it military presence in 145 foreign countries, has occupied two of Iran’s neighboring countries and is preparing to invade Islamic Republic, Pakistan and Syria.
Robert Gates and many other American leaders know the truth but are affraid to end up like Helen Thomas for saying the truth.
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2010/06/10/helen-thomas-tell-them-to-get-the-hell-out-of-palestine/
Great photo.
It makes you wonder: what sane US politician could possibly believe that Russia and China would ever concede to US hegemony over Iran? It’s simply inconceivable.
On the other hand, delusional, prevaricating US politicians are totally conceivable.
@JohnH;
Re your post on June 18, 2010 at 11:46 pm:
Iran is indeed a threat, but not to the security of US nor is it a threat to the security of Israel for that matter. But it is VERY MUCH a threat to the US/Israeli hegemony in this region.
The reason that US in its rhetorics omits the words “the hegemony of” from the sentence “Iran is a threat to the hegemony of US” is that if they say the whole sentence they will expose themselves!
Chris @ 10:09–What is this “threat” that comes from Iran that I am unable to see?
It’s obvious–a threat to the “defense” budget. The military is so desperate to find something, anything to justify its looting of the Treasury that a country with a $9 Billion defense budget is cast as THE major threat to the US!
“So how does Iran become a threat to these countries?”
Simple. Iran is unlikely to ever attack them, but it threatens to become too strong for them to attack Iran.
They (US/Israel/the West) fear what they cannot destroy. That is the ‘threat’
What is this “threat” that comes from Iran that I am unable to see? It is clear that the leaders of Iran are not foolish enough to launch an attack on the United States, Russia or even Israel. They are very much aware of the consequences.
So how does Iran become a threat to these countries?
Can someone explain this?
Ahmed, Fiorangela,
“Can” is not the same as “will.” Iran already launched rockets into space, and a satellite. It already can enrich uranium to 20%. If Iran had the will or need, it can combine the two. Do not look at the aging Boeing fleet and assume Iran couldn’t. The USSR infrastructure was horrible, but they did it. Even American infrastructure looks bad compared to its military gadgets. Don’t believe me? Get on an American Airlines Or United flight and compare it to European or Asian carriers. Old and decrepit.
So it can be done. Like you, I don’t think it ever will be done. Yes, Iran has been “three years away” from a nuke for 20 years. That only proves they don’t want nukes. Not that they can’t build nukes.
Lysander, “If they can, they will.”
“Within 5 years Iran will have an ICBM that can strike the US.”
“Iran has scientists, engineers…”
Is it possible that Iran’s scientists and engineers could partner with Harley-Davidson, maybe, and build a side-car on those ICBMs so that PEOPLE could get from US to Iran without worrying about the duct tape that’s holding together Iran’s Boeing fleet?
@Lysander
“What Gates is saying is that 10-15 years from now”
Iran will “have” an ICBM that can strike the US within 5 years and can build a bomb (nuclear offcourse) within 3-this is what Mr.Gates, the DNI and the US IC state. As well all know Iran has been “close” to building a bomb (i.e within 3 years) since the late 1990’s.
“Iran could “potentially” have a nuclear arsenal with long range missiles to deliver it. And of course “potentially” Iran could do that.”
Pakistan and India have been enriching Uranium for weapons for years. They do not have thousands of missiles each. Building bombs takes time and requires ALOT more money than most think. It is not “just” the bomb but the delivery system, crew (they must be reliable) and TEL’s which must be considered. The idea that Iran will rain down hundred’s of nukes is absurd. For that reason I disagree with you, I believe Gates was referring to a conventional attack on Europe by Iran. Mass conventional attacks on “Europe” (a political continent) are nothing. Mr.Gates forgot to mention who in Europe would be targeted, im sure it won’t be Serbia, Luxemburg, Sweeden but France, Germany and the UK (this is all hypothetical offcourse).
Pak
The ideology of the Islamic Revolution is still – “neither east nor west”. However, that doesn’t mean that Iranian have to turn into sheep – ready to be slaughtered by Israel and its western poodles. Tehran has to purchase arms to defend the Revolution at all cost. BTW – Tehran is paying for whatever it purchases from Russia and china – and not getting charity as Israel does – to the tune of US$6-14 billion each year.
The Middle Eastern better learn the true nature of Zionism before they’re murdered in cold blood as the aid workers on Gaza Freedom Flotilla.
“You Israeli should never become lenient if you would kill your enemies. You shall have no pity on them until you shall have destroyed all their so-called Arab culture, on the ruins of which we shall build our own civilization.” Menachin Begin, October 28, 1956.
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2010/06/19/good-turks-bad-turks/
It is laughable that Russia would consider Iran a bigger threat than the US/NATO or even China. Without a doubt, Russia considers Iran an important counterweight to the US. Of course, no Russian official will ever say that openly and probably would not even say it in private to American officials, at least not so boldly. US hostility would be severe in such circumstances and the Russian would like to prevent another arms race for as long as they can. Therefore, they play along and say what the Americans want to hear and trade concessions for concessions. Russia need not ‘like’ Iran or even trust it so long as some interests are in common. Iran need not like, and certainly shouldn’t trust, Russia in order to cooperate on common interests.
Let’s face it, Russia could have totally left Iran in the lurch and supported the big sanctions the US wanted. It never has and likely never will, because instability in Iran or an Iran with a US puppet government would be catastrophic for Russian interests and both the Russians and Iranians know it.
On to Gates’ statement regarding ‘hundreds’ of Iranian missiles. There is more to it than we might think. What Gates is saying is that 10-15 years from now, Iran could “potentially” have a nuclear arsenal with long range missiles to deliver it. And of course “potentially” Iran could do that. It has money, scientists, engineers, technicians and a decent industrial base. It has already put a satellite in space. It does not matter if Iran hasn’t the slightest intention of ever doing so. Gates is operating on the principle of ‘if they can, they will.’ Policy makers always give capability much more weight than intent.
That capability to strike Europe is not irrelevant. Consider: Germany has sold (or was it a gift?) Israel submarines capable of launching nuclear weapons on Iran. Would Germany have done so if Iran could “potentially” build nukes and attach them to medium/long range missiles?
Again, I emphasize that even though Iran would never do it, to Gates that does not matter. For him, ‘If they can, they will.’
There is no way Putin can see Iran as a greater threat than: (in no particular oder)
A)The USA
B)The PRC
C)North Korea
D)NATO
E)Chechen rebels
Those are Russia’s greatest national security threats, not Iran. If Iran was such a threat Russia would NOT sell SA-15’s in 2007 and S-300’s (sold but not delivered). Russia also would not build the Bushehr reactor if Iran was such a big security risk. Gates comments are absurd and are directed at a misinformed and paranoid American and Western public.
This is what Mr.Gates had to say yesterday in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee:
“the realization that if Iran were actually to launch a missile attack on Europe, it wouldn’t be just one or two missiles or a handful. It would more likely be a salvo kind of attack, where you would be dealing potentially with scores or even hundreds of missiles.”
Source: (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jT7OgfuDjLU2jRXVXeBcQZmQQdqg)
Iran has NO reason to attack Europe. Iran’s only targets will most likely be:
I)Israel
II)US Navy 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain
III)Large US bases in Afghanistan (Bagram, Khandahar etc..)
IV)Large US bases in Iraq (particularly air bases)
V)Saudi and Emarati refineries and oil fields
VI) US bases in UAE (Al Dharfa), Oman (Musadam), Qatar (Al Udeid), Kuwait (Camp Afrijan) all to delay US repositioning of weapons
VII) Saudi Air Force Bases
More targets would be added to the list if the GCC and Gulf states (and other countries) get involved.
From the linked article about Gates’ Senate testimony:
“Gates told senators Russia has for years seen Iran as a worrisome regional power. When he met with then-president Vladimir Putin three years ago in Moscow, the Russian leader “told me that he considered Iran Russia’s greatest national security threat,” Gates said. “And yet they have these commercial interests in Iran that go back more than 20 years,” he told the Senate Armed Services Committee. Asked by a senator about the apparent contradiction, Gates said “you’ve just put your finger on a kind of a schizophrenic Russian approach to this.”
Is there not a shaky presumption in the contradiction that Gates cites and with which this Senator obviously agrees? That perceiving another country as a security threat necessarily dictates not trading with that country? That isolating that country is, instead, the proper way to go about handling that security threat?
Is it possible to imagine a country that the US considers to be less of a security threat than Canada? Suppose, however, that some 19th-century US president and Congress had decided that Canada posed a security threat to the US (they’re uncomfortably close to us, after all) and so the US had cut of all trade and closed the US/Canada border ever since. Had we done that, would we today worry as little about Canada as we in fact do? Or might we be wondering and worrying about what those crazy Cannucks might be up to?
Iran is simply a chess board, on which the West and the Russians have been playing a dangerous game for hundreds of years. They do not give a hoot about Iran. Of course Russia’s Iran policy is schizo, as is the West’s, because they are not actually considering Iran. They should rename their policies “how to use Iran as a pawn”. For example, the regime is so stupid that it has patiently waited 15 – yes, 15 – years for the completion of the Bushehr nuclear facility, and 5 years for the delivery of some meagre weapons. Iran is completely exposed in the international community because of the regime’s idiotic, immature and clumsy foreign policy.
The revolution was all about independence – neither east nor west – but what happened instead? We simply replaced the US with Russia and China. Good job regime!
Rehmat,
I think Gates was regarded as a man sure to protect the interests of the armaments manufacturers, and the politicans who promote the squandering of hundreds of billions of dollars every year on unnecessary “defence” of the US. As it happens, there is a good deal of cooperation with Aipac and other interests seeking to “protect” Israel no matter how many hundreds of billions it costs the American taxpayers.
One has to excuse Robert Gates for lying about Islamic Republic and Russia’s mutual interests. As an AIPAC appointee in Bush administration. Obama extended his career on recommendations of pro-Israel ‘advisers’ in Pentagon. As for what Putin confided to him a few years ago – is not much different than what another secretary of state, Rumsfeld, confided to Saddam Hussein way back when the Israel Lobby considered him “a poodle” to fight Iranian Mullah, who called for the “wipe off Zionism in the Middle East.
Robert Gates has just returned from Baku with red face – for not being invited to dinner by country’s President Ilham Aliyev. I suppose, next time he is going to claim that Azerbaijan turning into another Islamic State – just as Bibi called Turkey last year.
From Washington to Baku, with Love
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2010/06/16/from-washington-to-baku-with-love/
Far be it from Gates to note the US’ schizophrenic non-proliferation policy, coddling NPT rogues such as India and Israel while condemning Iran, which works within NPT rules.
No, it’s always OTHERS who are at the root of the problem…
Let’s alsom keep in mind that Gates worked hard, at the CIA, to ensure that the perceived “threat” posed by the Soviet Union, was magnified many times, by deliberate distortions of assessments of the size of the economy of the USSR. This in turn helped the programme to squander hundreds upon hundreds of billions of dollars on useless or unnecessary weapons.
If Gates is trying to convince the US Congress that Russia is cynically pursuing financial gain in dealing with Iran, and knowinlgy putting the national security of Russia at risk, he is well off the mark. As so often.
Vladimir Putin has also said that the demographical challenge is the greatest threat faced by Russia (and Europe apart from Russia).
The Russians see diplomacy as the best way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Their assessment is correct, and Bob Gates has been wrong far too many times.
Let’s remember Gates did not notice the clear signs the USSR was nearing terminal collapse, until almost the last minute, when those signs were readily apparent to some of us back in the 1970s.