Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a Brookings scholar and the Dubai Initiative research fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, makes a very compelling argument that economic sanctions will not compel the Iranian regime to change its nuclear policy.
The argument is thorough and nuanced – so difficult to summarize – but here a couple of the main points
1. Iran’s economy has thrived over the past decade despite American-led sanctions: per capita income in Iran has doubled over that time.
2. Economic hardship is unlikely to be a decisive factor in favor of the reformist movement within Iran. On the contrary, economic pressure is likely to hit the poorest Iranians hardest – and poor Iranians generally support Ahmadenijad’s populist regime and would be likely to rally around him.
The article is well worth a read and can be found here.
– Ben Katcher