Surely this month is a litmus test of Gates’s “pressure track”. If no “crippling” sanctions are imposed on Iran in February, then the intense diplomatic and PR sanctions offensive has failed. If China does not succumbe, its regional influence has been demonstrated, and the playing field has been levelled. The scene may finally be set for serious negotiations between Iran and the United States after thirty years of mutual animosity.

At the Munich Security Conference China effectively said they would no longer refrain from using their veto at the UN. That, potentially, is huge. They said that China speaks for a fifth of humanity and has the right to take a stand if it sees things being controlled by one or two nations to the detriment of others. So they are not only no longer refraining, they are intending to use it. The Iran situation just gets knocked right down the to do list if it means sacrificing China.

Somebody better shut Hillary Clinton up fast. Make her ambassador to Kiribati or something.

Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, is now for over a year consistently on the record advising against further sanctions.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60L2H420100122

It just seems that Washington, including U.S. media, does not hear what it does not want to hear.

Either of these steps would be treated as acts of economic war against Iran, and Iran would retaliate accordingly. Neither of these steps would be perceived differently in Iran if the US got another Security Council resolution.

Russia is not really the story. If the United States wants to escalate tensions with Iran, it will. By the end of his term George Bush had decided he did not want to escalate tensions, almost certainly on the advice of the military. AIPAC, Israel and a large segment of the US Congress wants the US to escalate tensions with Iran.

Escalating tensions with Iran are certain to result in lives of US soldiers lost, long before hostilities reach the point of war. There is no more subtle way to put this than that US and Israeli interests just diverge on this issue. The United States gets no benefit from going down the spiral with Iran. Israel does benefit from reinforcing the principle that the US punishes countries that threaten Israel, even to the detriment of the US.

Anyway, Russia and China are not stopping the US from getting a new resolution. The US, if it was a priority, could fairly easily gotten a UNSC resolution in January that would have been no more or less sweeping than a resolution it could get later this year. Or the US could act without a resolution.

Obama is talking like he wants to increase tensions with Iran, but not acting like he wants to increase tensions. That’s a good thing. He’s the President of the United States, not of Israel.

My best guess is that Obama is waiting to see what the Feb 11 protests look like, and to take stock on how much hope he can put on the opposition before accepting the TRR deal on the table with Iran.