(President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao reach out to shake hands after a press conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, Nov. 17, 2009. Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)
Amidst the bravado surrounding President Ahmadinejad’s announcement that Iran will start enriching uranium to 20 per cent purity, the Financial Times reported yesterday that China has passed the European Union as Iran’s largest trading partner.
According to the FT, China’s annual trade with Iran is more than $36.5 billion and consists primarily of swapping Chinese consumer goods and machinery for Iranian oil, gas, and petrochemicals. The article also noted that China now relies on Iran for 11 percent of its energy needs.
The finding is indicative of a broader trend: China’s growing willingness to work with the Islamic Republic, despite objections from the United States and Europe.
For a thorough analysis of Beijing’s strategic calculus with regard to balancing relations between Iran and the West, read Moving (Slightly) Closer to Iran: China’s Shifting Calculus For Managing Its Persian Gulf Dilemma, and outsanding monograph by John Garver, Flynt Leverett, and Hillary Mann Leverett.
Given China’s steadfast refusal to support meaningful sanctions on Iran, Washington is left to determine whether it can circumvent Beijing while crafting its Iran policy.
German Marshall Fund Transatlantic Fellow Andrew Small suggests that China’s intransigence on a variety of issues is leading American and European policymakers to reconsider their policies of strategic engagement toward China.
These ideas include
Threats of targeted measures that limit Chinese free-riding, such as stricter sanctions against Chinese companies dealing with Iran. Punishment for currency manipulation, and carbon tariffs.
A move from comprehensive to selective engagement and integration. Parts of the vast architecture of dialogues and summits may be dismantled. Right now, China is the one to cancel and postpone dialogues, and Western powers are the perpetual demanders. This can be stopped. The headlong rush to give a new seat to China at every table in every international process can also be slowed.
A move to a less Sino-centric engagement and integration policy. Rather than making a bilateral beeline for Beijing, more effort could be employed in coordinating China policy with other like-minded countries. The United States has plenty of room to deepen its cooperation with its treaty allies in Europe and Asia has considerable scope. But more diplomatic energy could be focused on other potential members of a progressive coalition — India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa. Expanded economic, technological, security, and trade advantages can be offered to those countries that are willing to act as system-strengtheners rather than spoilers.
More consciously competitive policies could be initiated in areas where disagreements on values are likely to persist, such as aid policy or dealing with rogue states. The West would focus less on reaching agreement with China and more on maneuvering around it.
Some of these ideas are good – particularly the notion of coordinating American and European China policies and engaging a broad range of global stakeholders on issues of strategic import – but a key aspect of coping with China’s rise will be to acknowledge that many policies will be ineffective without Chinese support.
A policy of isolation and coercive sanctions on the Islamic Republic is one of those policies. It is foolish to pretend otherwise.
– Ben Katcher
So far the “international community” has failed to compel Iran to submit to demands. What makes them think they can do that to a much, MUCH larger and MUCH more powerful China?
Boggles the mind what Iran bashers come up with.