Comments on: Acknowledging Reality in Lebanon http://www.raceforiran.com/acknowledging-reality-in-lebanon Wed, 10 Mar 2010 07:19:09 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Noah http://www.raceforiran.com/acknowledging-reality-in-lebanon#comment-27 Noah Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:38:36 +0000 http://www.raceforiran.com/?p=826#comment-27 This is an informative post, and I appreciate how difficult it is to write a short article about Lebanon without relying on shorthand generalizations. Nevertheless, the first half of this sentence is rather misleading: "Since Hizballah won a larger share of popular support than March 14, it was inevitable that no government could be formed which would exclude them." Hizballah and Amal won essentially universal Shia support, which everyone knew they would. But this election solidified similar support among Sunnis behind Hariri's Future Movement, which has rallied Sunni public opinion against Hizbullah to a degree that would have been hard to imagine before 2005. Moreover, this election was always going to be won by the Christian swing vote. March 14th tried to depict March 8th Christians as pawns of Iranian and Syrian interests, and March 8th did the same toward March 14th and its Saudi patrons. Both sides used ugly sectarian scare tactics, and in the end more swing voters sided with March 14th and the Saudis. March 8th's Michel Aoun did significantly worse than expected, which is the direct result of how Christians view his relationship with Hizbullah, Syria and Iran. This is an informative post, and I appreciate how difficult it is to write a short article about Lebanon without relying on shorthand generalizations.

Nevertheless, the first half of this sentence is rather misleading:

“Since Hizballah won a larger share of popular support than March 14, it was inevitable that no government could be formed which would exclude them.”

Hizballah and Amal won essentially universal Shia support, which everyone knew they would. But this election solidified similar support among Sunnis behind Hariri’s Future Movement, which has rallied Sunni public opinion against Hizbullah to a degree that would have been hard to imagine before 2005.

Moreover, this election was always going to be won by the Christian swing vote. March 14th tried to depict March 8th Christians as pawns of Iranian and Syrian interests, and March 8th did the same toward March 14th and its Saudi patrons. Both sides used ugly sectarian scare tactics, and in the end more swing voters sided with March 14th and the Saudis. March 8th’s Michel Aoun did significantly worse than expected, which is the direct result of how Christians view his relationship with Hizbullah, Syria and Iran.

]]> By: Noah http://www.raceforiran.com/acknowledging-reality-in-lebanon#comment-26 Noah Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:38:02 +0000 http://www.raceforiran.com/?p=826#comment-26 This is an informative post, and I appreciate how difficult it is to write a short article about Lebanon without relying on shorthand generalizations. Nevertheless, the first half of this sentence is highly misleading: "Since Hizballah won a larger share of popular support than March 14, it was inevitable that no government could be formed which would exclude them." Hizballah and Amal won essentially universal Shia support, which everyone knew they would. But this election solidified similar support among Sunnis behind Hariri's Future Movement, which has rallied Sunni public opinion against Hizbullah to a degree that would have been hard to imagine before 2005. Moreover, this election was always going to be won by the Christian swing vote. March 14th tried to depict March 8th Christians as pawns of Iranian and Syrian interests, and March 8th did the same toward March 14th and its Saudi patrons. Both sides used ugly sectarian scare tactics, and in the end more swing voters sided with March 14th and the Saudis. March 8th's Michel Aoun did significantly worse than expected, which is the direct result of how Christians view his relationship with Hizbullah, Syria and Iran. This is an informative post, and I appreciate how difficult it is to write a short article about Lebanon without relying on shorthand generalizations.

Nevertheless, the first half of this sentence is highly misleading:

“Since Hizballah won a larger share of popular support than March 14, it was inevitable that no government could be formed which would exclude them.”

Hizballah and Amal won essentially universal Shia support, which everyone knew they would. But this election solidified similar support among Sunnis behind Hariri’s Future Movement, which has rallied Sunni public opinion against Hizbullah to a degree that would have been hard to imagine before 2005.

Moreover, this election was always going to be won by the Christian swing vote. March 14th tried to depict March 8th Christians as pawns of Iranian and Syrian interests, and March 8th did the same toward March 14th and its Saudi patrons. Both sides used ugly sectarian scare tactics, and in the end more swing voters sided with March 14th and the Saudis. March 8th’s Michel Aoun did significantly worse than expected, which is the direct result of how Christians view his relationship with Hizbullah, Syria and Iran.

]]> By: Pim van den Berg http://www.raceforiran.com/acknowledging-reality-in-lebanon#comment-22 Pim van den Berg Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:15:16 +0000 http://www.raceforiran.com/?p=826#comment-22 In my opinion Syria needs the support of all western countries. Slowly, very slowly it is losing the sharp edges of an authoritarian regime but, more important, it's the only secular regime in the Middle East left since the Egyptian regime only cares about it's survival. As far as the Syrian influence in Lebanon is concerned I do understand why the Syrian government worries about a new sectarian conflict. I never understood why Lebanon is considered to be a democracy with it's outdated electoral system. Your website is one of the few places that mention the majority of the "March 8" votes. No newspaper I know ever mentioned that. Meanwhile the "powers that be"in Lebanon all have their Kalashnikov's "under their beds" and are most warlords of the last civil war still in power. Poor Lebanon.... (My website is blocked by the Syrian government, even while it's written in Dutch. Long toes still...) In my opinion Syria needs the support of all western countries. Slowly, very slowly it is losing the sharp edges of an authoritarian regime but, more important, it’s the only secular regime in the Middle East left since the Egyptian regime only cares about it’s survival.
As far as the Syrian influence in Lebanon is concerned I do understand why the Syrian government worries about a new sectarian conflict.
I never understood why Lebanon is considered to be a democracy with it’s outdated electoral system. Your website is one of the few places that mention the majority of the “March 8″ votes. No newspaper I know ever mentioned that.
Meanwhile the “powers that be”in Lebanon all have their Kalashnikov’s “under their beds” and are most warlords of the last civil war still in power. Poor Lebanon….

(My website is blocked by the Syrian government, even while it’s written in Dutch. Long toes still…)

]]> By: Qifa Nabki http://www.raceforiran.com/acknowledging-reality-in-lebanon#comment-21 Qifa Nabki Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:09:43 +0000 http://www.raceforiran.com/?p=826#comment-21 "The March 14 movement is routinely romanticized in the West as champions of democracy, but, if you suggest to a Hariri supporter that Lebanon adopt “one man, one vote” democracy, your image of March 14 as truly democratic will be quickly brought back to earth. The only real champion of “one person – including women – one vote” democracy in Lebanon today is Hizballah." This is an overstatement. There are plenty of M14 supporters who are strong advocates of dismantling the confessional system, just as there are plenty of Hizbullah supporters who believe that the rules should remain as they are. As for Hizbullah (as a party) championing "one person - including women - one vote", I'd be most curious to see some strong evidence of this, as an official party policy. “The March 14 movement is routinely romanticized in the West as champions of democracy, but, if you suggest to a Hariri supporter that Lebanon adopt “one man, one vote” democracy, your image of March 14 as truly democratic will be quickly brought back to earth. The only real champion of “one person – including women – one vote” democracy in Lebanon today is Hizballah.”

This is an overstatement.

There are plenty of M14 supporters who are strong advocates of dismantling the confessional system, just as there are plenty of Hizbullah supporters who believe that the rules should remain as they are.

As for Hizbullah (as a party) championing “one person – including women – one vote”, I’d be most curious to see some strong evidence of this, as an official party policy.

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