The Race for Iran

Photo from AP

Just when one might have thought that reality was slowly sinking in regarding the Green movement’s lack of political traction in Iran, political and media elites in the United States have decided, in the wake of recent developments in Egypt, to dust off all of their factually ungrounded and intellectually irresponsible narratives.  Still reeling from the loss of a longstanding U.S. ally to the new wave of “people power” in the Arab world, the American establishment seems determined to even the score, by having displays of mass discontent bring down a U.S. adversary in the Islamic Republic of Iran. 

Giddy at the prospect of renewed demonstrations in Iran, the U.S. State Department turned on its first Farsi-language Twitter feed yesterday.  U.S. media coverage of today’s events in Tehran—whatever they were—was truly appalling.  Scott Peterson of the Christian Science Monitor—who, after the Islamic Republic’s 2009 presidential election, wrote some of the most journalistically irresponsible stories filed from Iran during that period—was back at it today, with a completely un-sourced report of “tens of thousands of protesters” on the streets of Tehran, see here.  The New York Times acknowledged at least that “the size of the protests in Iran was unclear”, see here.  But, unfortunately, its reporters could not resist writing that “witness accounts and news reports from inside the country suggested that perhaps 20,000 to 30,000 demonstrators in several cities defied strong warnings and took to the streets”—even though the only actual source cited in the story is “a former member of Parliament now living in exile in the United States”.  Andrew Sullivan of The Atlantic has treated readers of his blog with several installments of a multi-part, “Iran Ignites” post. 

Against this, we would call readers’ attention to the appearance of University of Tehran Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi on Russia Today, see here, citing no more than “a few hundred rioters” in downtown Tehran.  This figure seems far more in keeping with the actual video evidence from Iran today.  We would also highlight this piece of commentary from Daniel Larison at Eunomia, see here.

As Mohammad’s commentary suggests, the United States is in an increasingly “desperate” situation in the Middle East.  President Obama and his administration are coming under increasing criticism from some quarters for having “abandoned” Mubarak while they do little to bring down the “real dictatorship” under the Islamic Republic.  

Today, Obama’s National Security Advisor, Tom Donilon, issued an official, White House letterhead statement, declaring as a matter of U.S. policy that Iran must allow protests of whatever sort the Obama Administration wishes to encourage.  In the coming days and weeks, the Obama Administration will try to “get something going” in Iran.  The administration will fail, and the spectacle will not be edifying.      

–Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett

Photo from Peter Macdiarmid / Getty Images

Hillary was very busy today, doing media commentary on the extraordinary events in Egypt—a country where she was a student and served two tours as a U.S. diplomat.  We provide here a link that pulls together two of her appearances on Al Jazeera today.  She makes, very clearly, a number of important points that are otherwise almost totally absent from mainstream commentary in the United States about what has transpired in Egypt. 

–The United States does not really support democratization in Egypt or anywhere else in the Middle East, because regional governments that were genuinely reflective of their people’s preferences would not support many aspects of current U.S. policy in the region—whether with regard to the siege of Gaza, prolonged occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq, renditions (whereby the Egyptian government and other regional governments agree to torture their own citizens for the CIA’s presumptive benefit), or (prospectively) bombing Iran. 

–Mubarak’s departure from office occurred 32 years to the day after the Islamic Republic was established in Iran, setting in motion a series of events that set the stage for President Jimmy Carter’s electoral defeat in 1980.  If President Obama continues to pursue policies that are antagonistic to most of the people who live in the Middle East, his difficulties may only be beginning. 

–The challenge for the United States is to come to terms to with the values, interests, ideas, and grievances of people who actually live in the region.  The key to meeting that challenge is a willingness to distinguish between a commitment to protecting the safety and security of the Jewish people in a portion of their Biblical homeland from an aggressive Israeli national security strategy—a strategy which holds that Israel must be able to use military force unilaterally, whenever and wherever it wants, to whatever extent it chooses, and for whatever purpose it deems desirable. 

Hillary also appeared on MSNBC, where she tried to focus attention on yet another colossally bad idea from the Obama Administration in its response to developments in Egypt—a plan to provide U.S. government funds to “secular political parties”.  This is a clear attempt to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood from being heard in a post-Mubarak political order.  The Obama Administration is trying to marginalize the Brotherhood because it believes that is essential to protecting the real “prize”—the peace with Israel.  As the Administration worked on its plan to promote secular democracy in Egypt today, it also proclaimed that the next Egyptian government “must” honor the peace treaty with Israel. And it sent Vice President Biden (the Middle East expert who said less than two weeks ago that Mubarak was not a dictator because he was a friend of Israel) out to exhort Iranians to go into the streets and protest against their government.     

The Obama Administration has not done itself any favors with its promiscuous use of the verb “must” since January 25.  It is unfortunate that there is no apparent learning curve on this point at the White House. 

–Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett

Photo of Gen. Suleiman meeting with opposition figures by Soliman Oteifi / AP

Defying the conventional wisdom, Robert Springborg, professor of national security studies at the Naval Postgraduate School, has written a piece, see here, in Foreign Policy that lays bare three critical questions that together determine what will happen in Egypt:

–Will the opposition, in the face of a classic divide-and-conquer campaign by Omar Suleiman (for more on Suleiman’s links to the U.S. rendition program and other aspects of his career, please see here) and the current Egyptian government be able to coalesce around Mohamed ElBaradei or some other unifying figure?

–If the opposition fails to coalesce around a unifying figure, will Suleiman or some other player rooted in the current regime emerge as Egypt’s next leader?

–Is the Obama Administration making a long term strategic mistake by backing Suleiman’s effort to co-opt enough of the opposition  to engineer a “stable transition” to a superficially liberalized version of the current political order?

We excerpt from his article below:

“While much of American media has termed the events unfolding in Egypt today as “clashes between pro-government and opposition groups,” this is not in fact what’s happening on the street. The so-called “pro-government” forces are actually Mubarak’s cleverly orchestrated goon squads dressed up as pro-Mubarak demonstrators to attack the protesters in Midan Tahrir, with the Army appearing to be a neutral force. The opposition, largely cognizant of the dirty game being played against it, nevertheless has had little choice but to call for protection against the regime’s thugs by the regime itself, i.e., the military…

The threat to the military’s control of the Egyptian political system is passing. Millions of demonstrators in the street have not broken the chain of command over which President Mubarak presides. Paradoxically the popular uprising has even ensured that the presidential succession will not only be engineered by the military, but that an officer will succeed Mubarak. The only possible civilian candidate, Gamal Mubarak, has been chased into exile, thereby clearing the path for the new vice president, Gen. Omar Suleiman. The military high command…can neutralize any further political pressure from below by organizing Hosni Mubarak’s exile, but that may well be unnecessary. 

The president and the military, have, in sum, outsmarted the opposition and, for that matter, the Obama administration…

In the meantime the regime used the opportunity to place the military in more direct control of the government while projecting an image of business as usual. In addition to securing the presidential succession to Gen. Omar Suleiman, retired general and presidential confidant Ahmed Shafiq was sworn in as prime minister, along with a new cabinet, in all due televised pomp and ceremony…

The stage was thus set for the regime to counterattack the opposition through a combination of divide-and-rule tactics, political jujitsu, and crude application of force. The pledge by Mubarak not to offer his candidacy, the implied succession to Suleiman rather than Gamal, the commitment to revising constitutional provisions that govern the presidential election, and the decision to suspend parliamentary sessions until courts have ruled on contested candidacies from the November election succeeded in convincing some opposition elements that they had gained enough to call it a victory and go home.

As for those elements, including the coalition formed around Mohamed ElBaradei, that deemed these concessions to be insufficient sops intended to preserve the status quo, the regime offered further provocations. Mubarak described them as opportunists and called their patriotism into question, implying that they were stooges of the United States and that he was defending the nation’s independence and dignity. This was classic political jujitsu, for the enraged crowd now redoubled its efforts and demands, using much more insulting language to describe Mubarak himself. This in turn paved the way for the regime to unleash its goon squads to attack protesters.

The military will now enter into negotiations with opposition elements that it chooses. The real opposition will initially be ignored, and then possibly rounded up. The regime will do all possible to restore a sense of business as usual. Cell phone and Internet connections have already been re-established, and automatic teller machines are functioning, though banks remain closed so there can be no run on them. Businesses will be encouraged to reopen, and all possible will be done to ensure a flow of essential supplies into Cairo, Alexandria, and Suez.

The last challenge remaining is economic. Even before demonstrations broke out a few weeks ago, the economy was just limping along. It is now broken. Even in the best-case scenario of a rapid return to stability, Egypt faces a cash crunch. Capital flight, loss of foreign direct investment, drying up of tourist revenues, downgrading of sovereign debt and commensurate increase in interest, and lost earnings from interrupted production will all hammer the revenue side of the balance sheet… Egypt will have to turn to its “friends” if it is to avert economic disaster and if the regime that just narrowly survived defeat is not to be challenged yet again.

The Obama administration, having already thrown its weight behind the military, if not Mubarak personally, thereby facilitating the outcome just described, can be expected to redouble its already bad gamble. Fearing once again that the regime might be toppled, it will lean on the Europeans, the Saudis, and others to come to Egypt’s aid. The final nail will be driven into the coffin of the failed democratic transition in Egypt. It will be back to business as usual with a repressive, U.S.-backed military regime, only now the opposition will be much more radical and probably yet more Islamist…”

Photo by John Moore / Getty Images

Today, the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, addressed the congregation attending Friday prayers at the University of Tehran.  As usual when the Leader speaks publicly, his listeners included a nationwide television audience in Iran.  But, on this occasion, his audience also extended across the Middle East, and Khamenei delivered part of his remarks in Arabic.  For Khamenei was speaking less than two weeks after the start of a remarkable cycle of popular protests in Egypt that marked the beginning of the end of President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year tenure, and the Leader wanted to talk directly to people in Egypt and across the Arab world. 

In his remarks, Khamenei said that “developments in North Africa, Egypt, Tunisia and some other countries have a special meaning for the Iranian nation.  This is what was always referred to as the Islamic awakening created by the victory of the great Islamic revolution of the Iranian nation and is showing itself today.”  Focusing on Egypt and its long-time President, Hosni Mubarak, Khamenei said that “for 30 years this country has been in the hands of someone who is not seeking freedom and is the enemy of those seeking freedom.  Not only is he not anti-Zionist, but he is the companion, colleague, confidant, and servant of Zionists.  It is a fact that Hosni Mubarak’s servitude to America has been unable to take Egypt one step towards prosperity.”  Khamenei also underscored the strategic significance of what was happening in Egypt:  “If they are able to push this through then what will happen to U.S. policies in the region will be an irreparable defeat for America”. 

In substance, Khamenei’s remarks amplified and extended—with, of course, the unique authority of his office—observations made by other senior political and religious figures in Iran about the crisis in Egypt.  Just a week before Khamenei spoke at the University of Tehran, the city’s interim Friday prayer leader, Ayatollah Seyed Ahmad Khatami, claimed that “all these protests in Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, and Yemen are inspired by Iran’s Islamic revolution” and that “an Islamic Middle East is being created based on Islam, religion, and democracy”.  Likewise, majles speaker Ali Larijani described events in Egypt and Tunisia as “a kind of Islamic awakening that the Westerners should pay attention to.”  Noting that “the most important of Imam Khomeini’s eternal legacies in the contemporary world was his offering a model for religious democracy”, Larijani said that, if the United States would stop interfering, people in Egypt “will show you what kind of democracy they want…Then they will express their hatred of the US.” 

All of these remarks reflect an important reality dramatically underscored by events in Egypt:  the balance of power in the Middle East is, in fact, shifting, away from the United States and its allies and in favor of the Islamic Republic and its partners.  Moreover, Tehran is not just a beneficiary of this shift; the Islamic Republic has, through its foreign policy and national security strategy, helped to bring it about. 

We are grateful to a www.RaceForIran.com contributor who has provided his translation of Khamenei’s remarks, delivered in Arabic and addressed to the Egyptian people, which we are pleased to highlight below:   

“Greetings to the entire Muslim Ummah wherever they are. At this moment in the Islamic world, a grand and glorious phenomenon is occurring that will determine the destiny. A phenomenon that can completely revolutionize the arrogant powers’ equation in favor of all the people of the region. A phenomenon that could restore the respect and dignity of the Arab nations and Islamic Ummah. A phenomenon that could wipe away and cleanse decades of miasma of oppression, humiliation, and degradation coming from the direction of the United States and the West over these ancient people and well-rooted nations.

This miraculous event began by the people of Tunisia and has reached its climax by the great and mature people of Egypt. It has taken away the breath of two worlds: the West and the Islamic world; each for their own reason. Each is waiting to see the Great Egypt, the Egypt of outstanding people of the recent century; Egypt of Muhammad Abdeh and Seyyed Jamal; Egypt of Sa’ad Zeghloul and Ahmed Shoghi; Egypt of Jamal Abdol-Nasser and Al-Sheykh Hassan Al-bana; Egypt of 1967 and 1973; what will today’s Egypt do? How high will it hold its flag of determination? If this flag, God forbids, falls, a dark and gloomy era will follow. If this flag is raised to the peak and is secured, it will raise its head high up in the skies.

The people of Tunisia were able to evict a traitor, a slave of US, a force against principles. However, it would be a misjudgment if it is assumed that this could be the ultimate desired outcome. A regime that lacks sovereignty will not collapse with the exit of its most noticeable pawn. If other pawns, other associates replace him, nothing has changed. Only the net of deception has been cast wider. In the Islamic Republic of Iran, they wished, so many times, to trap our nation. But vigilance by our awakened nation and Godly grand leader learned the enemy’s trickery and neutralized it. And they have continued their path.

But Egypt, the very issue of Egypt is an exceptional example. Because Egypt is an exceptional country among Arab nations. Egypt is the first country in the Islamic word that became acquainted with the European culture. By the same token, it is also the first country in the Islamic world that got to know what it means to be subjected to the dangers of cultural aggression, and to oppose such aggression. It is the first country that formed a truly independent Arabic country after World War II and began to defend its national interest especially as it related to Suez Canal. It is the first country that stood up to help the Palestinians with all its might and became known in the Islamic world as the champion of the Palestinians. Seyyed Jamal’eddin was not Egyptian.  However, he found that no other place but Egypt could offer a glimpse of hope to deeply understand a Muslim nation’s great predicament. The nation of Egypt, in both religious and political scent, proved its worthin  ess that is recorded in history. Muhammad Abdeh and his students, Sa’ad Zeghlol and his followers were not some fanatic callow individuals. They were a group of such exceptional, brave, and awakened geniuses that if any nation could produce only one such character, that nation is justified in its pride. Egypt with its depth in culture, in religion, in politics, it indeed occupied it rightful place of leadership in the Arab world.

The greatest crime of this current regime in Egypt is that it brought down a great nation from an elevated status to that of lowly helpless pawn in political games in the region. The explosion we are witnessing in the great Egyptian nation is a response to this unforgivable crime a dependent dictator committed against his people.

Today, all over the world, they are offering multiple colorful analysis about the uprising of the Egyptian nation. Everyone is saying something different. However, only those who truly know Egypt can clearly see that Egypt has risen up to defend its dignity and its integrity. The Egyptian nation has grabbed a traitor criminal by his collar so that it can free itself from he who auctioned off its dignity, he who brought it down from the height of pride, he who sacrificed the honor and pride of a nation at the alter of superiority and arrogance of its enemies. The most obvious of these was the Egyptians status with respect to Palestinians.  Palestine, for decades, has been a core issue in this region. The complexity and interwoven nature of all regional problems are such that no nation in the region can separate its own destiny from that of the Palestinians. Only two fronts exists: either defending the Palestinians and their just struggle, or joining the opposite camp.

The nations of the region have clarified their position.  It is such that any government that defends Palestinians, it garnishes the support of its own people and Arab and Muslim nations. Egypt know this by experiences of 60s and 70s. Any time its government defines itself within the framework of the opposite camp, it loses its own people’s support. In Egypt, it was since Camp David that a great divide was created between the Egyptian people and the government. The Egyptian people which defended the Palestinians with their own lives and material possessions gradually witnessed their rulers had exceeded their subservience and obedience of the US to a degree that Egypt has turned into one of the most faithful cosigners of a Zionist enemy invader. United States’ domination over Egyptian people has been so severe that it annulled so much hardship the Egyptian people endured in defense of Palestine. It changed Egypt to the greatest enemy of the Palestine and greatest protector  of Zionists.

This was happening with Egypt while Syria, Egypt’s ally in 67 and 73 wars, maintained its independence despite enormous pressures from U.S. Shamelessness of Egyptian regime’s subservience reached a point that for the first time in history, the Egyptian people witnessed that in the war Israel waged against their brothers in Gaza, their government placed itself in Israel’s camp. Not only did it not help their brothers but also worked actively in enemy’s camp. The history will never forget that Hosni Mubarak is the same person who was the collaborator, confidant, and partner along with Israel and the US in the most horrific siege of the people of Gaza and 22 days of massacre of women, men, and children of Gaza. One can only imagine how the Egyptian people were feeling those days. Television scenes were showing the depth of despair felt by the Egyptian people’s tears and cries were talking about how they are not allowed to rush to their brothers’ help and respond to t  heir cries for help. How much more do you think this Muslim Egyptian nation can tolerate and endure pain? What is being witnessed today in Cairo and other cities in Egypt is an explosion of sacred anger. It is an  eruption of hidden wounds accumulated and festered for years through the behaviors of an un-Muslim and traitor regime.

The uprising of Muslim Egyptian nation is an Islamic and freedom-seeking movement. I, in the name of the people and government of Iran, send salutations to you and pray to God for your complete victory. Of you and your uprising I am filled with pride. There is no doubt that each nation’s uprising is unique and entirely dependent upon their geographic, historical, political, and cultural confounders. It is not realistic or logical to expect that what happened during the great Islamic revolution in Iran 30 years ago to happen exactly as such in Egypt, Tunisia, or any other Islamic country. However, there are some commonalities among them that experiences of one nation could be useful for another. Followings are the experiences that might prove useful:

1. In every uprising, the real war is between the wills. The side that perseveres and endures hardship, is the side that is definitely victorious. Quran teaches us that:

 إنّ الّذینَ قالُوا رَبُّنُا اللَّه ثُمَّ استَقامُوا تَتَنَزَّلُ عَلَیهِمُ المَلائِکَه ألَّا تَخافُوا وَ لا تَحزَنُوا وَ أبشِرُوا بِالجَنَّهِ الَّتی کُنتُم تُوعَدونَ

And it warns the Prophet that: فَلِذلِکَفَادعُوَاستَقِمکَمااُمِرتَ وَ لا تَتَّبِع أهواءَهُم The enemy tries to bend your will by force or by deception. However, make sure you remain steadfast.

2. The enemy tries to convince you that you can never reach your goals and instills hopelessness in you. However, God promises:

 وَنُرِیدُ أَن نَمُنَّ عَلَى الَّذِینَ اسْتُضْعِفُوا فِی الْأَرْضِ وَنَجْعَلَهُمْ أَئِمَّةً وَنَجْعَلَهُمُ الْوَارِثِینَ وَلَیَنصُرَنَّ اللَّهُ مَن یَنصُرُهُ إِنَّ اللَّهَ لَقَوِیٌّ عَزِیزٌ

3. The enemy is arming and mobilizing its paid agents and security forces so that they create insecurity and chaos to a degree that you are fed up. Do not be afraid of them. You are stronger than them. You are at the following stage where the Prophet and his companions were once:

یَا أَیُّهَا النَّبِیُّ حَرِّضِ الْمُؤْمِنِینَ عَلَى الْقِتَالِ إِن یَکُن مِّنکُمْ عِشْرُونَ صَابِرُونَ یَغْلِبُواْ مِئَتَیْنِ وَإِن یَکُن مِّنکُم مِّئَةٌ یَغْلِبُواْ أَلْفًا مِّنَ الَّذِینَ کَفَرُواْ بِأَنَّهُمْ قَوْمٌ لاَّ یَفْقَهُونَ Trust God and mobilized and organize your inspired youth and you could overcome any insecurity and chaos.

4. The most critical weapon a nation has when facing hired rulers and arrogant powers is unity and concordance. Your enemies will employ every deceptive tactic to divide you. For example, they bring up natural disagreements to drive a wedge; they inject deviating slogans; they introduce unknown faces by causing an elevation of their characters; they introduce known faces with known reputation but untrustworthy as a replacement for a traitor president. Solidify your unity based on your religion and salvation of your country from paid enemies.

وَاعْتَصِمُوا بِحَبْلِ اللَّـهِ جَمِیعًا وَلَا تَفَرَّقُوا

5. Do not trust the political maneuvering of US and the west. Until a few days ago, they were defending a corrupt regime. Now that they have lost hope, they have begun paying lip service to the right of nations. Under this guise, they are trying to, once again, force upon you their own agents. This is the greatest insult to other nations’ intelligence. Do not tolerate this insult and do not submit to anything but the establishment of a system that is independent, works for the people, and genuinely adheres to Islam.

6. Those learned people and scholars of religion who have a bright legacy should step up. A people who began its uprising from a mosque and during a Friday prayer and cries out “Allah Akbar” indeed have a justified expectation of their learned people.

7. The Egyptian army has the honor of having participated in at least two wars against Zionist enemy. This army is now facing the greatest test in its history. The enemy wants to use the army against the people. God forbids if such event occurs, that would be the greatest tragedy for the Egyptian army that can never be healed. That entity against which the Egyptian army must stand is the Zionists and not the Egyptian people. Certainly, those components of the army who are of the people and their children will eventually join the people. This sweet experience will once again be repeated in Egypt.

8. Finally, United States which for 30 years has supported a cruel ruler against his own people is not in any position to enter the scene as an honest arbiter. Regard any American act with suspicion and do not trust it.

My beloved brothers and sisters! These are our experiences. I, as a Muslim brother and out of my religious duties and obligations, shared these experiences with you. The enemies trumpets will be played loudly just as they have always been. They will claim Iran want to interfere. They will say Iran wants to turn Egypt into a Shi’a nation. They will say Iran wants to export “Velayat Faghih” (Guardianship of the Learned and Pious). And Iran wants….Iran wants… Iran wants….They have repeated these lies for 30 years to keep our nations and people apart and deprive us from helping one another. They say these and their paid lackeys will repeat these.

یُوحِی بَعْضُهُمْ إِلَى بَعْضٍ زُخْرُفَ الْقَوْلِ غُرُورًا  وَلَوْ شَاءَ رَبُّکَ مَا فَعَلُوهُ  فَذَرْهُمْ وَمَا یَفْتَرُونَ

With these deceptive tactics, we will never abandon our obligations which have been bestowed upon us by Islam. و الله من وراء القصد. (Only God knows true intentions.) واستغفرالله لی و لکم.”