The Race for Iran

A senior European diplomat, speaking in Paris this week, reportedly told The Jerusalem Post that Iran has already rejected Mohammed ElBaradei’s proposal for refueling the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR), but President Obama is withholding the news . As readers ponder how many national governments were involved in spinning this story, we note that Siddarth Varadarajan—strategic affairs editor for India’s The Hindu and a journalist with deep expertise in Iranian issues—published a front-page story earlier this week reporting an exclusive interview with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, who has been traveling in India. The link to Siddarth’s article is here; the full transcript of his interview with Mottaki is here.

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The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has just published an excellent four-pager called “Beyond Zero Enrichment: Suggestions for an Iranian Nuclear Deal.”

The report lays out the United States’ policy options with regard to Iran’s nuclear program, and makes a clear and concise case for why the United States must move beyond its insistence on “zero enrichment.” According to the report, “Zero enrichment is so unlikely it should not be the basis of policy.”

Instead, the “least bad” option for the United States is to reach a deal with the Islamic Republic that allows some enrichment in exchange for an Iranian commitment to safeguards against the weaponization of its nuclear program.

The argument made in the report is similar to one made by Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett in their paper, “Time for a U.S.-Iranian ‘Grand Bargain’,” published last year.

– Ben Katcher

In Beijing, President Obama is continuing his administration’s efforts to win China’s support for imposing “crippling” sanctions against Iran over its nuclear activities. While U.S. officials cling to the hope that China will not, in the end, stand alone among the P-5+1 in opposing new sanctions, Chinese President Hu Jintao politely declined to indicate any support for additional pressure on Iran. Following discussions with Obama, Hu said only that “we both stressed that to uphold the international nuclear nonproliferation regime and to appropriately resolve the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiations is very important to stability in the Middle East and in the Gulf region.” (see full transcript here.)

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Marc Broderick, writing in the Moscow Times, argues that Russia’s opposition to sanctions on Iran can be attributed to its desire for a high price of oil. Conflict between the West and Iran – according to Broderick – is a good thing for Russia because it is likely to lead to a higher price of oil.

I think there is something to Broderick’s argument, but understanding Russia’s opposition to sanctions requires a broader framework for analyzing Russia’s interests. Flynt and Hillary provided this analysis yesterday.

– Ben Katcher

Yet again, U.S. officials, Western media, and various “experts” are telling us that Russia is finally coming on board for really tough sanctions against Iran over its nuclear activities. See, the latest media report on Russian President Dmitry Medvedev “joining forces” with President Obama on the need for tougher sanctions against Iran here.

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