Turkey: A New Entrant In The Race For Iran

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We have spent the last few days in Turkey, attending the inaugural meeting of the Istanbul Forum, a conference on political and security challenges in the Middle East organized by the German Marshall Fund, the Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research, and the strategic communications division of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The conference brought together Turkish, Middle Eastern, European, and American participants for discussions on a wide range of regional political and security issues. The conference also afforded us a wonderful opportunity to take a look at Turkey’s expanding role in the Middle East – especially regarding Iran.

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Supporting Sunni Extremists Groups in Iran Would Be Short-Sighted

Jamsheed K. Chosky has an excellent article over at Foreign Policy – in which he provides a thorough description of Jundallah, the Sunni extremist group responsible for Sunday’s bombing in Baluchistan and makes a persuasive argument against U.S. support for Sunni extremist groups that seek to destabilize Iran.

Chosky’s argument is similar to one put forth by Flynt and Hillary on this blog on Monday.

From Chosky’s article:

Indeed, the Barack Obama administration might be tempted to use direct or indirect funding as a means of surrogate warfare to further pressure Iran’s government. Violent anti-Iranian Sunni groups like Jundallah have not been placed on the U.S. State Department’s terrorism list. And the Obama administration might feel that it’s already being punished for the perception that it’s funding the rebels and may as well try to reap some of the rewards.

But this would be shortsighted. The basic problem with any strategy to destabilize Iran via Sunni tribal rebellions is that Baluch nationalism spans three countries — not just Iran, but also Afghanistan and Pakistan. Supporting a pan-Baluchistan movement would only worsen societal instability and national fragmentation in West Asia and South Asia.

Militant groups, especially ones linked to ethnic and religious notions, have brought little but trouble to the world. It is important to recall the obvious: The United States and its partners once supported the Taliban materially because they were battling the Soviets and Russians. The United States shouldn’t repeat the mistake, fooling itself that Sunni Baluch nationalists will be better disposed toward the West just because they are now fighting a common foe in the Iranian government.

Yes, there might be the temptation to exert pressure, via internal strife, on Ahmadinejad’s autocratic regime for eliciting nuclear and international compromises. But Iran’s Sunni insurgency isn’t just bad news for the IRCG — it’s also bad news for the Middle East, Asia, and the United States. Ultimately, therefore, whether or not the Iranian regime’s charges of foreign interference are accurate, no country should welcome or aid an insurgency in eastern Iran. NGOs for terrorism really are harder to subdue than nation-states supporting such activities.

You can read the entire article here.

– Ben Katcher

 

Putting the Iranian-Russian-French Enrichment Deal In Perspective

Joshua Pollack over at Arms Control Wonk is optimistic that the uranium enrichment deal among Iran, Russia and France will go through, despite murmurs to the contrary coming out of Vienna this week.

Pollack describes the strategic significance of the deal this way:

It’s easy to get absorbed in the minutiae of site-specific safeguards and takeback arrangements, so let’s keep in mind what the parties really seem to be getting. Iran can duck the worst of the fallout from the Qom affair and gain implicit acceptance of its enrichment activities. (Emphasis on “implicit.”) The P5+1 can put time back on the clock by getting that 1,200 kg LEU out of the country. And in the implementation phase, the sides will be able to test each other’s intentions and create some trust at the working level, assuming there are no major hitches.

In other words, the deal doesn’t mean much in and of itself, but could be a precursor to more significant steps to normalize Iran’s relations with the international community down the line.

– Ben Katcher

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The Latest on the P5+1

David Sanger has a wrap-up of the third and final day of the P5+1 talks in Vienna.

It looks the uranium enrichment deal from earlier this month may be back on track, but nothing has been finalized.

– Ben Katcher

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OBAMA TILTS AT CHINESE WINDMILLS WITH GULF ARAB OIL

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The Obama Administration – with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton playing Sancho Panza to President Obama’s Don Quixote – continues its futile quest to induce China to foreswear its increasingly strategic energy relationship with Iran. Two recent articles – one from AFP, the other in The Wall Street Journal – indicate that the Administration is encouraging Gulf Arab oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, to expand their oil exports to China. According to U.S. officials, the goal of this effort is to persuade Beijing to roll back its burgeoning energy ties to the Islamic Republic.

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