The Race for Iran

As we wait for Tehran’s response to the proposal from the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Director General, Mohamed ElBaradei, to remove low-enriched uranium (LEU) from Iran for further enrichment and fabrication into fuel rods for the Tehran Research Reactor, it is important to understand the considerations that are shaping decision-making on the Iranian side. Hillary Mann Leverett offers her observations about the Iranian approach to Baradei’s proposal in a new piece, “Pragmatists in Iran”, published by Foreign Policy.com.

Iran originally proposed to buy fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor from international providers. There was clearly consensus support for this idea in Tehran leadership circles. The United States and other players responded with a “counter-proposal”, whereby Iran would ship most of its current stockpile of LEU out of the country for fabrication into fuel rods. The merits of this approach are very much a debatable proposition in Tehran. As Hillary points out, this debate has nothing to do with reformists vs. hardliners, or the pro-Ahmadinejad camp vs. the anti-Ahmadinejad camp. Fundamentally, this debate reflects a lack of confidence in Tehran about U.S. and Israeli intentions toward the Islamic Republic.

You can read Hillary’s piece here.

– Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett

Robert Worth over at the New York Times has the latest on Iran’s reaction to the P5+1 uranium enrichment proposal.

Iran seems to be hinting that it will seek some amendments to the deal, but it appears we’ll have to wait until Friday for an official response.

– Ben Katcher

In an interview with The Guardian, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made clear that he considers Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a friend and that he does not believe Iran is developing a nuclear weapons program.

As Flynt and Hillary outlined last week, Turkey and Iran have increased their commercial ties in recent years and are working together to bring Iranian hydrocarbons to European markets.

More soon.

– Ben Katcher

Flynt discussed the Iranian uranium enrichment deal as part of this excellent segment on Al Jazeera’s Inside Story.

Flynt suggests that Iran’s decision to ask for more time before making a decision on the P5+1 offer to take Iranian uranium out of the country for enrichment is likely the result of a sincere effort to reconcile differing opinions within the Iranian political system.

As Flynt explains, Iran originally proposed that it buy enriched uranium for its reactor from the United States or one of the other P5+1 partners. Sending Iran’s own uranium abroad for enrichment is a much different decision – and the Islamic Republic needs to decide whether it is in its interest to do so.

The entire segment is worth watching, but if you want to skip to Flynt’s comments go to: 5:47, 12:00 and 17:47 on the video above.

– Ben Katcher

Judah Grunstein over at World Politics Review is concerned that the uranium enrichment deal – even if it does eventually come to fruition – does little to address the fundamental issues at stake in the United States-Iranian bilateral relationship.

From the post:

As things stand, the Obama administration cannot accede to the principal Iranian demand of broadening the discussions beyond the nuclear dossier without significantly damaging the consensus among its EU partners (principally France). And the Iranians cannot accede to the principal American demand of a freeze and ultimate abandonment of its uranium enrichment without significantly damaging the domestic political consensus around the issue.

The problem for Obama is that he’s hemmed in from actually adopting a true engagement policy without preconditions, due to domestic political constraints and the risk of alienating the EU3. But in the absence of one, he’s forced to resort to engagement lite, which amounts to the same “freeze or sanctions” approach in friendlier packaging.

Grunstein’s argument is well taken, and it seems the only way out of this dilemma is for the Obama administration to articulate both to the EU-3 partners and the American public why broadening the dialogue with Iran beyond nuclear issues is the best way forward.

You can read the entire post here.

– Ben Katcher